Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Bi-Weekly Industry Events & M&A Update — September 14–28, 2026

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BI-WEEKLY INDUSTRY EVENTS & M&A UPDATE

MATERIALS › MATERIALS › AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS AND FERTILIZERS

Policy Headlines Reprice the Sector as Operators Keep Building

This update covers what moved, what companies announced and what the transaction record showed across the sector between September 14–28, 2026.

September 14–28, 2026

Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Market data through 2026-09-28 · events and transactions from the two-week period 2026-09-14 → 2026-09-28

Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice

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1. 01
   BI-WEEKLY INDUSTRY EVENTS & M&A UPDATE

   MATERIALS › MATERIALS › AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS AND FERTILIZERS

   Cover slide introducing the Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers bi-weekly update for September 14–28, 2026.

   We open this bi-weekly update on Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers by setting out what changed, who moved and why, what transacted, and what it means for the two weeks ending September 28, 2026. Policy headlines reset the sector while operators kept building beneath the surface, and that tension is the story we walk through next.

   Everything on this page

   BI-WEEKLY INDUSTRY EVENTS & M&A UPDATE MATERIALS › MATERIALS › AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS AND FERTILIZERS Policy Headlines Reprice the Sector as Operators Keep Building This update covers what moved, what companies announced and what the transaction record showed across the sector between September 14–28, 2026. September 14–28, 2026 Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data through 2026-09-28 · events and transactions from the two-week period 2026-09-14 → 2026-09-28 Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1

2. 02
   THE BI-WEEKLY BOTTOM LINE

   The Whole Covered Set Gave Ground While the Broad Market Held Up

   Summarizes the two-week period across 8 covered names on a close-to-close basis versus the broader market.

   Every one of the 8 covered names fell over the period, with a median move of -11.6% against a +0.8% return for the S&P 500, which points to a set-wide repricing rather than company-specific results. Barron's reported on Sep 21 that fertilizer shares fell as the President said the U.S. is working on a potash deal with Belarus, naming CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), and our read is that policy and export-control headlines still move regional netbacks faster than operating results can. FMC Corporation (FMC) led the decline at -16.1%, even as it closed a minority equity investment and filed a Brazilian regulatory dossier in the same window. With no new transactions in the period, the standing record of 40 deals at a median 10.0x EV/EBITDA remains the reference against a 7.1x public sector median — so what: the gap between where deals get done and where the market trades has only widened.

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   THE BI-WEEKLY BOTTOM LINE The Whole Covered Set Gave Ground While the Broad Market Held Up The two-week period in one page · 8 covered names, close-to-close · September 14–28, 2026 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (universe, prices, filings, transaction records); publisher-sourced news where linked; market data through 2026-09-28. Driver attributions use calibrated language and are NeuraCap reads of the recorded evidence. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2 1 8 of 8 Covered Names Fell; The Median Move Was -11.6% The S&P 500 returned +0.8% over the same two-week period. The direction was uniform across nitrogen, phosphate, potash and crop protection names, which points to a set-wide repricing rather than single-company results. 2 Trade Policy Moved the Set Before a Single Tonne Changed Hands Barron's reported on Sep 21 that fertilizer shares fell as the President said the U.S. is working on a potash deal with Belarus, naming CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF). Our read: sanctions and export-control headlines still reset regional netbacks faster than operating results can. 3 FMC Led the Decline at -16.1% in a Period When Its Own Pipeline News Landed FMC Corporation (FMC) fell -16.1%, with its largest single-day move of -6.3% on Sep 23. In the same window it closed a minority equity investment and filed a Brazilian regulatory dossier for rimisoxafen. 4 No New Transactions, so the Standing Reference Set Is Unchanged The trailing record of 40 transactions carries a median EV / EBITDA of 10.0x, against the study's CY2027E sector median of 7.1x. Buyers in the record have agreed to pay above where the public set clears. -2.1% Best mover — CTA-PB worst: FMC -16.1% · 0 up / 8 down of 8 covered -11.6% Sector median two-week return vs S&P 500 +0.8% 1 Company filings in the window 8-K events read for driver attribution

3. 03
   PUBLIC MARKET MOVERS

   One Premium-Tier Name Led a Set That Moved Together

   Shows each covered name's close-to-close move for the period against the sector median and materiality bar.

   The set moved together this period: sector median -11.6% against a +0.8% S&P 500 return, with our materiality bar set at 17.4% on a sector-relative basis. FMC Corporation (FMC) led the decline at -16.1%, including a single-day move of -6.3% on Sep 23. We link each move only to filings and headlines recorded in the window, and where no driver is recorded, the page says so plainly — so what: the uniformity of the decline is itself the signal, not any single company's news.

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   PUBLIC MARKET MOVERS One Premium-Tier Name Led a Set That Moved Together Bi-Weekly moves, close-to-close · September 14–28, 2026 · sector median -11.6% · S&P 500 +0.8% · materiality bar ±17.4% (sector-relative) Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (universe, prices, filings, transaction records); publisher-sourced news where linked; market data through 2026-09-28. Attribution links each move only to filings and headlines recorded in the window; where no driver is recorded, the page says so. Calibrated language throughout — NeuraCap reads, not asserted causation. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 Bi-Weekly return per company · teal above zero, amber below · sector median -11.6% FMC Corporation (FMC) -16.1% Shares moved following the Sep 23 closing of a minority equity investment in FMC Corporation (FMC), announced on the same day as the period's largest single-day decline of -6.3%. A Premium-tier name can give back ground even while its registration pipeline and partner news land in the same window. COMPANY-SPECIFIC

4. 04
   MAJOR NEWS & INDUSTRY CATALYSTS

   Registrations, Refinancing and Policy Noise Carried the News Flow

   Lists the period's highest-impact filings and headlines with a NeuraCap read of why each matters.

   The period's news flow ran through registrations, a refinancing action and a policy headline rather than a single dominant event. Each item on this page links back to its underlying filing or article, and our 'why it matters' lines are calibrated reads, not asserted causation. Sources are admitted in a fixed reliability order — SEC filings first, then press releases, then established outlets — so what: the evidence trail is auditable line by line.

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   MAJOR NEWS & INDUSTRY CATALYSTS Registrations, Refinancing and Policy Noise Carried the News Flow The two-week period's highest-impact events · titles link to the underlying filing or article · September 14–28, 2026 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (universe, prices, filings, transaction records); publisher-sourced news where linked; market data through 2026-09-28. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap reads; each event links to its source. Sources are admitted in a fixed reliability order (SEC filings, press releases, established outlets); video and social platforms are never used. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4 Sep 28 · NEWS · PRNewsWire FMC filed a Brazilian regulatory dossier for rimisoxafen, a dual mode of action herbicide This is the second global filing for the molecule and pushes a patented active toward the largest corn and soybean acreage market. At the crop protection end, the funded registration pipeline sets the earnings base, not the nutrient price. Sep 21 · NEWS · PRNewsWire FMC set October 29 as the date for its third-quarter 2026 earnings release It fixes the next scheduled point at which price, volume and mix decomposition and channel inventory become observable for the sector's crop protection reader. The channel inventory cycle in crop protection runs on its own clock and shows up on reporting dates. Sep 15 · 8-K · SEC EDGAR Scotts Miracle-Gro retired its 2026 senior notes, renewed its receivables facility and began buybacks The redemption was funded from the revolver and excess free cash flow, which points to cash generation holding through the consumer channel cycle. Balance-sheet housekeeping reads differently at the branded end than it does at the tonnes end. Sep 23 · NEWS · PRNewsWire Mosaic announced executive leadership changes as its EVP of Operations plans to retire Operations leadership owns on-stream factor, the turnaround schedule and delivered cash cost per nutrient tonne at The Mosaic Company (MOS). Succession in that seat is an operating variable, not a governance footnote. Cost-curve position is held in place by operating discipline, and that discipline has names attached to it. Sep 23 · NEWS · PRNewsWire FMC closed a previously announced minority equity investment by an industrial group Strategic capital took a position alongside the company rather than pursuing the whole business, which is consistent with how partners have been entering this sector. Partnership and minority structures remain a live route for strategic capital into crop protection assets. Sep 21 · NEWS · Barrons Fertilizer shares fell after the President said a potash deal with Belarus is in the works Barron's reported the move across fertilizer names including CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF). Trade policy still moves this set faster than tonnes, netbacks or reported results do.

5. 05
   M&A & STRATEGIC ACTIVITY

   A Quiet Two Weeks for Deals, with the Standing Record Still the Reference

   Reports that no new transactions closed in the period, leaving the trailing 40-deal record as the valuation reference.

   No new transactions were recorded in this two-week window, so the standing record of 40 deals carries the reference at a median 10.0x EV/LTM EBITDA. That multiple compares against the study's CY2027E sector median of 7.1x, a gap that held even as public prices moved lower across the board. We treat deal multiples as LTM at announcement where disclosed, and we do not re-present old transactions as news — so what: the benchmark for private-market value has not moved, even though public sentiment has.

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   M&A & STRATEGIC ACTIVITY A Quiet Two Weeks for Deals, with the Standing Record Still the Reference September 14–28, 2026 · precedent transactions: 40 recorded deals · median 10.0x EV/LTM EBITDA Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (universe, prices, filings, transaction records); publisher-sourced news where linked; market data through 2026-09-28. Deal multiples are LTM at announcement where disclosed; "why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. No old transactions are re-presented as news. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 No Material Transactions Announced No material sector transactions were announced during the period. The trailing record of 40 transactions carries a median EV / EBITDA of 10.0x, so the benchmark acquirers are measured against is unchanged. A quiet two-week period is information: buyer appetite, financing conditions and seller expectations all read through a period with no new deals. The precedent transactions alongside still frame what buyers have paid. 40 Recorded precedent transactions the reference set buyers and sellers price against 10.0x Precedent median EV/LTM EBITDA LTM at announcement, where disclosed

6. 06
   WHAT IT MEANS

   What a Policy-Led Drawdown Changes, and What It Does Not

   Translates the period's evidence into distinct takeaways for owners, acquirers and advisors.

   For owners and operators, the variables you control did not move with the prices — the whole set traded lower together, which says more about policy headlines than about any one asset. For acquirers, the reference set is unchanged: the trailing 40-deal record at a median 10.0x EV/EBITDA still stands against a 7.1x public sector median, even as all 8 covered names fell. For advisors, the period's evidence argues for leading with position, not headline — a uniform -11.6% median decline against a +0.8% market, one clear policy catalyst, and company news that was ordinary operating news. So what: position, not the news cycle, is what should drive the next conversation.

   Everything on this page

   WHAT IT MEANS What a Policy-Led Drawdown Changes, and What It Does Not The two-week period translated for the people who act on it · NeuraCap view · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (universe, prices, filings, transaction records); publisher-sourced news where linked; market data through 2026-09-28. This page is analytical interpretation drawn from the two-week period's recorded evidence. It is not investment advice. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Sector study 2026-09-28 EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) median 7.1x 8 companies in the study 3 valuation tiers Standing thesis: Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers splits into diversified nutrition and crop protection, and ammonia chemistry FOR OWNERS & OPERATORS The Variables You Control Did Not Move with the Prices Companies across the space traded lower together, which says more about policy headlines than about any one asset. FOR ACQUIRERS The Reference Set Is Unchanged, the Public Prices Are Not No new transactions landed in the window, so the trailing record of 40 deals at a median 10.0x EV / EBITDA remains the benchmark, against a CY2027E sector median of 7.1x. Public prices fell across all 8 covered names while that record held. FOR ADVISORS Lead with Position, Not with the Headline The period's evidence is a uniform decline of -11.6% at the median against a +0.8% market, a policy headline that moved the set, and company news that was operating news: a Brazilian registration filing, a completed minority investment and a debt redemption.

7. 07
   SOURCES & METHODOLOGY

   Sources, Methodology and Important Notice

   Explains how the update is built, its evidence hierarchy and how figures link back to primary sources.

   Every figure in this update links to the record it was taken from, and the publishers and filings drawn on for the period are listed here. We hold to a fixed reliability order — SEC filings, press releases, then established outlets — and we never draw on video or social platforms. So what: readers can verify every claim in this deck against its original source.

   Everything on this page

   SOURCES & METHODOLOGY Sources, Methodology and Important Notice How this bi-weekly update is built and what each kind of statement rests on · September 14–28, 2026 · market data through 2026-09-28 Every figure in this update links to the record it was taken from; the publishers and filings drawn on for the period are listed above. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 7 OBSERVED DATA Bi-Weekly stock moves are computed close-to-close over the stated window from the platform’s price series. Deal records, values and multiples come from the platform’s transaction record (SEC 8-K extractions) exactly as recorded; each figure links to its citation. Treasury rates come from the platform’s Treasury series and are shown only when the 10-year moved at least ten basis points over the window (it did not in this window, so no rate figures appear). UNIVERSE QUALITY The update universe is the platform’s approved company set for this sector, subject to a $100M market-cap floor so small, loosely related names cannot dominate the statistics. 1 name below the floor was excluded from movers and statistics for this window. EVENTS & NEWS Company events are in-window 8-K filings; news items are publisher-sourced headlines fetched for the window (and any externally supplied items, marked as such). Operational and strategic developments (deals, partnerships, launches, expansion, guidance, leadership, regulatory outcomes) are shown first; capital-return mechanics and conference appearances are limited to one each. Every event links to its source. The deck never asserts an event that has no linked record. SOURCE HIERARCHY News is admitted in a fixed order of reliability: SEC filings first, then company press releases and investor-relations communications, then transaction documents, then established outlets (Reuters, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s and peers). Video and social platforms — including YouTube — are never used as sources. DRIVER ATTRIBUTION A stock move is linked to an event only when the event falls inside the window, and only in calibrated language ("the move appears to reflect…", "shares moved following…"). Where no driver is recorded, the page says so and compares the move to the sector median instead. ANALYTICAL INTERPRETATION "Why it matters", "why the deal happened" and the what-it-means page are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence, and are labeled as such. INHERITED CONTEXT The standing sector view (thesis, valuation lens, sector median and tiering) is inherited from the NeuraCap sector study run_20260928T082941Z_323_prod (market data as of 2026-09-28) — distilled, never re-derived. That report’s own sources page governs its content; this update reads the period against it. IMPORTANT NOTICE This report is informational only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here. Linked sources this two-week period: prnewswire.com · sec.gov · barrons.com

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