Paper and Plastic Packaging Sector Outlook — September 2026
A sector outlook on 11 paper and plastic packaging companies, covering EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) valuation, precedent transactions, and operating moves tied to the top of the range — for owners, boards and acquirers assessing capital allocation in converting and packaging-adjacent assets.
Key figures
- 8.8x
- Sector median multiple EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), rated names
- 13.1x
- Top of the range EV/EBITDA (CY2027E)
- 6.6x
- Bottom of the range EV/EBITDA (CY2027E)
- 82%
- Multi-substrate converting share of the 11 approved companies
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1 / 21 · Paper and Plastic Packaging: The Premium Sits with Growth
Executive summary
Paper and plastic packaging trades as one multi-substrate converting market, priced in three clear tiers: the sector median sits at 8.8x EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), with the range running from 6.6x to 13.1x. The premium travels with growth rather than size — the faster-growing names trade at 10.2x against 6.9x for the slower group, and the largest platform by enterprise value sits at the bottom of the range. Recorded transactions, including Amcor's agreed 8.6x for Berry Global and CD&R's agreed 9.6x for Sealed Air, land close to where the covered public names trade.
Key findings
- Sector median sits at 8.8x EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus
- Faster-growing converters trade at 10.2x versus 6.9x for slower peers
- Multi-substrate converting spans 82% of the set, pricing across the full range
- Recorded deal multiples of 8.6x and 9.6x land near the public median
What each page shows
The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.
- 01MATERIALS › MATERIALS › PAPER AND PLASTIC PACKAGING
Paper and Plastic Packaging: The Premium Sits with Growth
Cover slide framing the sector's finding: the premium in paper and plastic packaging sits with growth.
We open with the sector's core finding: across paper and plastic packaging, the premium sits with growth, not scale. The pages that follow show where that premium lands and what it takes to hold it.
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MATERIALS › MATERIALS › PAPER AND PLASTIC PACKAGING Paper and Plastic Packaging: The Premium Sits with Growth A read on how the market prices 11 paper and plastic packaging companies on forward earnings, and what buyers agreed to pay in the recorded transactions. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1
- 02CONTENTS
What This Report Covers
Contents page listing the five numbered sections plus appendix that structure the report.
This report runs five sections plus an appendix: the bottom line, the landscape, valuation and situations, precedent transactions, and strategic implications. We've put the bottom line first by design, so a client who stops after section one still leaves with the full story. Let's walk through each section so you know exactly where to find the evidence behind every conclusion.
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CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line The Faster-Growing Converters Hold the Top of the Range 02 The Landscape One Converting Market, with Nine of the Eleven Names Inside It 03 Valuation & Situations The Range Is Wide, and the Two Ends Are Separated by Growth 04 Precedent Transactions Buyers Agreed to Pay Single-Digit Earnings Multiples for Converting Platforms 05 Strategic Implications What Moves Your Standing from Here 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2
- 0301 · THE BOTTOM LINE
Paper and Plastic Packaging Trades as One Multi-Substrate Converting Market, Priced in Three Clear Tiers
The bottom line: paper and plastic packaging trades as one multi-substrate converting market priced in three tiers, running from 6.6x to 13.1x around an 8.8x median.
The full story sits on this page: paper and plastic packaging trades as one multi-substrate converting market, priced in three clear tiers on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E). The range runs from 6.6x at the bottom to 13.1x at the top, with the sector median at 8.8x — and the largest platform by enterprise value sits at the bottom, not the top. Growth is what separates the tiers: the faster-growing names hold 10.2x against 6.9x for the slower group. That's the frame we build on for the rest of this report.
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01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Paper and Plastic Packaging Trades as One Multi-Substrate Converting Market, Priced in Three Clear Tiers The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 11 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 The Ends of the Range Are Not Sorted by Size The top of the range on CY2027E EBITDA is 13.1x and the bottom is 6.6x, with the middle of the set at 8.8x. Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) heads the set by enterprise value and sits at the bottom end, so the spread is not tracking size. 2 The Faster Growers Hold the Top of the Range Among the 7 names with a forward estimate, the 4 growing faster than 3% sit at 10.2x on CY2027E EBITDA against 6.9x for the 3 below that line. A forward multiple already credits expected growth, so a premium that survives it points to durability rather than one good year. 3 Inside Multi-Substrate Converting, Pricing Runs the Full Width Multi-substrate converting is 9 of the 11 names and 82% of the set, with the middle of that group at 8.5x on CY2027E EBITDA. The two segment middles sit close together, while the names inside the larger group run from the discount tier to the premium tier on integration, contract structure and end-market weighting. 4 The Transaction Record Lands Near the Public Middle Amcor plc agreed to pay 8.6x EBITDA for Berry Global Group, Inc., recorded as pending, and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice affiliates agreed 9.6x for Sealed Air Corporation, recorded as announced. Both marks sit close to where the covered public names trade, so a platform is unlikely to be repriced on size alone. 8.8x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 7 rated of 11 companies 13.1x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 6.6x at the discount end top quartile (n=2) against bottom quartile (n=2) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 31 Transactions with disclosed terms 73 recorded in this tier · 3 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix
- 04SECTION 02
02
Section divider introducing the market map: how the eleven approved companies break into segments.
Next, we map the eleven approved companies by segment to show what each group actually sells. This sets up the landscape pages that follow.
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SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE One Converting Market, with Nine of the Eleven Names Inside It How the set breaks down and what each group actually sells. 02 of 06 Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4
- 0502 · MARKET MAP
One Converting Core, with Two Packaging-Adjacent Names Beside It
Market map grouping the eleven approved companies by business segment with median EV/EBITDA per group.
This page groups the approved universe by business segment and shows the median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) for each group. Nine of the eleven names sit in multi-substrate converting, with two packaging-adjacent names alongside them. The segment split gives us a common basis before we dig into where the multiples separate inside it — which is where the real story sits.
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02 · MARKET MAP One Converting Core, with Two Packaging-Adjacent Names Beside It 11 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 DIVERSIFIED MULTI-SUBSTRATE PACKAGING CONVERTING 9 cos median 8.5x Smurfit Westrock (SW) Amcor (AMCR) Packaging (PKG) Avery Dennison (AVY) Sonoco Products (SON) Graphic (GPK) Myers Industries (MYE) Karat Packaging (KRT) Ranpak Holdings (PACK) 82% of the set: fibre and resin converting platforms judged on integration rate, price/mix and conversion cost per unit. ADJACENT MODELS 2 cos 8.8x · 1 rated Reynolds (REYN) The Eastern (EML) Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN) and The Eastern Company (EML) sell into packaging demand from a branded consumer and an engineered-hardware position.
- 0602 · LANDSCAPE
Nine of the Eleven Names Convert Across Substrates, and Two Sit Beside Them
Landscape view showing how nine of the eleven names convert across substrates while two sit beside the core group.
Nine of the eleven names convert across paper and plastic substrates, and two sit beside that core group as packaging-adjacent businesses. The multi-substrate converters represent 82% of the set, at a group median of 8.5x on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E). Because that group median sits close to the sector median, the interesting variation is inside the group, not between segments — which is exactly what the valuation section unpacks next.
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02 · LANDSCAPE Nine of the Eleven Names Convert Across Substrates, and Two Sit Beside Them Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Diversified multi-substrate packaging converting 9 82% 8.5x Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) · Amcor plc (AMCR) · +7 more The core of the set. Nine of the 11 names convert paper and plastic across formats, from containerboard and boxboard platforms through folding carton, labels and flexibles. The middle of the group is 8.5x on CY2027E EBITDA, and names inside it sit from the discount tier to the premium tier depending on growth, grade mix and how much mill output converts internally. Adjacent models 2 18% 8.8x n=1 Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN) · The Eastern Company (EML) Packaging demand, different model. Two names sit beside the converting core: Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN) sells branded foil, wraps and bags into grocery, and The Eastern Company (EML) makes engineered closures and transport hardware. Only 1 of the 2 carries a forward estimate, so read this group as context rather than as a priced peer group.
- 07SECTION 03
03
Section divider introducing valuation and situation analysis across all eleven approved companies.
From here we move into valuation: all eleven approved companies, with seven names carrying a forward estimate. The range is wide, and growth is what separates the two ends.
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SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Range Is Wide, and the Two Ends Are Separated by Growth All 11 approved companies, with 7 names carrying a forward estimate. 03 of 06 Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7
- 0803 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION
The Sector Clears at 8.8x EV/EBITDA — the Range Around That Median Is the Story
Public market valuation showing the sector clearing at an 8.8x EV/EBITDA median across the seven rated companies, with a wide range around it.
The sector clears at 8.8x EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) across the seven rated companies, but that median hides a wide range — from 6.6x at the bottom to 13.1x at the top. The tier zones on this page are cut at the rated set's own quartiles, so they describe this cohort specifically rather than a universal packaging benchmark. That spread is the story: it tells us the market is pricing something beyond scale, and the next page tests what that something is.
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03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION The Sector Clears at 8.8x EV/EBITDA — the Range Around That Median Is the Story EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 7 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 8.8x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 11 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 13.1x CORE · median 8.8x DISCOUNT · median 6.6x Sector median 8.8x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top of the range. Premium-tier names — Karat Packaging Inc. (KRT), Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) — hold a median 13.1x. The bottom of the range. Discount-tier names — Sonoco Products Company (SON), Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) — trade at a median 6.6x. Why it matters. Which end a company is benchmarked against frames every valuation conversation that follows.
- 0903 · VALUATION DRIVERS
Growth Above the Sector Line Travels with the Higher Multiple
Valuation drivers comparing median multiples for faster- versus slower-growth cohorts among rated names.
Splitting the rated names with estimates into faster- and slower-growth cohorts, the four names growing faster than the covered median trade at 10.2x on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), against 6.9x for the three below that line. Since a forward multiple already credits expected growth, a premium that survives it points to durability rather than a single good year — an association we observe in this data, not a claim of cause. That's the pattern owners and acquirers should test against their own growth trajectory.
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03 · VALUATION DRIVERS Growth Above the Sector Line Travels with the Higher Multiple Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=4; slower n=3; higher-margin n=0; lower-margin n=0). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at 3% · EBITDA-margin split at n/a The Growth Line Is Where the Range Divides Of the 7 names with a forward estimate, the 4 growing above 3% sit at 10.2x on CY2027E EBITDA and the 3 below sit at 6.9x. That is an association on a small set rather than a proven mechanism, but it is the cleanest line through the group. Margin by Itself Is Not Separating the Ends Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) carries a 21% EBITDA margin and Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK) 20%, yet one sits in the core tier and the other carries no forward estimate here. Sonoco Products Company (SON) holds an 18% margin at the bottom of the range, so on these 7 names profitability alone is not marking the split. Contract Structure and Integration Sit Under the Multiple The names at the top of the range carry consumer, foodservice and labels-weighted demand, while the bottom of the range is weighted to commodity substrate volumes. Indexed pass-through, integration rate and converting density inside the freight radius are what buyers test under the earnings line, and the split in this set is consistent with that reading.
- 1003 · SITUATION MAP
Two of the Five Names Hold Both the Higher Multiple and the Higher Margin
Situation map cutting rated names on EV/EBITDA versus the sector median and EBITDA margin versus the covered median.
This page cuts the rated names on two lines: EV/EBITDA against the 8.8x sector median, and EBITDA margin against the 18% covered median. Two of the five mapped names hold both the higher multiple and the higher margin — a combination, not a guarantee, and it's an observation rather than a recommendation. Where a name sits on this map is a useful starting point for the capital-allocation conversation that follows.
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03 · SITUATION MAP Two of the Five Names Hold Both the Higher Multiple and the Higher Margin Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (8.8x) (rows) and EBITDA margin vs the covered median (18%) (columns) · 2 rated names without the second measure are not mapped · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Priced up, Margin Behind It Above-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 2 names Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) · Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN) Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) and Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN) sit above the middle of the set on both the CY2027E multiple and EBITDA margin. On the 5 names that map on both measures, this is the position that needs the least explaining to a board or a lender. Priced up, Margin Still to Come Above-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 1 names Karat Packaging Inc. (KRT) Karat Packaging Inc. (KRT) is priced above the middle of the set with an EBITDA margin of 12%, below the others mapped here. The market is crediting growth ahead of current profitability, so conversion cost per unit and price/mix are where that multiple has to be defended. Margin Held, Multiple Below Below-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 1 names Sonoco Products Company (SON) Sonoco Products Company (SON) holds an above-middle EBITDA margin while trading below the middle of the set on CY2027E EBITDA. With forecast growth negative, the work sits in volume and mix rather than in further cost reduction. Below the Middle on Both Below-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 1 names Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) sits below the middle on both measures, with a 16% EBITDA margin and forecast growth of 0%. This is the position where integration rate and contract coverage carry the most weight in how the earnings base is read.
- 1103 · THE AGENDA
Where the Next Dollar of Investment Goes, and Where the Higher Multiples Sit Today
The agenda frames the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve given where the next dollar of investment and the higher multiples sit today.
We frame this page as a set of questions rather than answers: where the next dollar of investment is going, and where the higher multiples sit today. These are directional observations grounded in the cohort data already shown, not investment advice. They set up the strategic implications we cover later in the report.
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03 · THE AGENDA Where the Next Dollar of Investment Goes, and Where the Higher Multiples Sit Today NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 Push Growth Above the Line This Set Splits On The names above the growth line carry the higher middle multiple on CY2027E EBITDA. For most converters that means mix work: food, beverage and healthcare weighting, mono-material redesign wins, and a qualification pipeline that converts into placed volume. What changes the answer: A second year of volume growth above the set's split, held through a destocking quarter. Decide Where Integration Is Worth the Capital Mill-backed integration and a dense converting footprint inside the freight radius are what buyers test beneath the multiple in this sector. Build-versus-buy on sheet plants and extrusion capacity is the live capital question for platforms sitting in the middle of the range. What changes the answer: A bolt-on inside the freight radius that lifts integration rate without adding a sustaining capex backlog. Make the Earnings Line Durable Through the Substrate Cycle Indexed pass-through, contract coverage and lag management separate a steady earnings line from a spot-exposed one. The lens here is forward, so expected growth is already credited and it is durability through the cycle that a premium has to survive on. What changes the answer: Pass-through lag narrowing across two cost moves, with contract coverage extended on the largest accounts. Read the Transaction Record Before Setting Your Own Bar Recorded transactions here cluster in the single digits on EBITDA, close to where the covered public names trade. The higher marks in the record are associated with specialty, foodservice and equipment-linked assets rather than commodity substrate volumes. What changes the answer: A recorded transaction in your substrate above the middle of the covered public set.
- 12SECTION 04
04
Section divider introducing the precedent transaction record for converting platforms.
Now we turn to the transaction record: nine recorded deals told as case studies, out of thirty-one with disclosed terms. The multiples buyers agreed to pay tell us where the private market has landed.
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SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS Buyers Agreed to Pay Single-Digit Earnings Multiples for Converting Platforms Nine recorded transactions, and the multiples attached to them. 04 of 06 Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12
- 1304 · DEAL CASE STUDIES
Buyers Are Agreeing Higher Multiples for Some Kinds of Assets than Others
Deal case studies showing three of the thirty-one disclosed transactions and the multiples attached to them.
We walk through three of the thirty-one disclosed transactions as case studies, with multiples measured on LTM financials at announcement. Amcor agreed 8.6x EBITDA for Berry Global, recorded as pending, and CD&R affiliates agreed 9.6x for Sealed Air, recorded as announced — both close to where the covered public names trade. Because the deal basis is LTM and the public basis is forward CY2027E, we don't draw a spread between the two; we simply note buyers are not paying a premium for scale alone. The full list of thirty-one transactions sits in the appendix for anyone who wants to trace every deal.
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04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Buyers Are Agreeing Higher Multiples for Some Kinds of Assets than Others 3 of 31 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 99 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 42 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13 Feb-2021 $30.3B International Paper Company International Paper Company and Graphic Packaging International Partners, LLC, recorded at $30.3B in Feb-2021. EV / LTM revenue 1.5x EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED An integrated fibre producer alongside a boxboard and folding carton converting business is the integration trade at the top of the market. The size suggests a buyer looking for converting outlets for mill output rather than entry into a single end market. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The transaction is recorded with a revenue multiple of 1.5x as shown in the filing. That mark sits between the other two recorded revenue multiples in this record. Nov-2024 $15.5B Amcor plc Amcor plc's agreement to acquire Berry Global Group, Inc., recorded at $15.5B and pending. EV / LTM revenue 1.3x EV / LTM EBITDA 8.6x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Two multi-substrate converting platforms coming together points to a buyer pursuing network density, procurement scale and resin buying power rather than a new end market. At this size the case is normally argued on plant rationalisation inside freight radii and on converting across formats. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The recorded terms put the target at 8.6x EBITDA. That sits close to the middle of the covered public set on CY2027E, so the agreed multiple is near where comparable public converters trade rather than above them. Nov-2025 $10.2B Clayton, Dubilier & Rice affiliates Clayton, Dubilier & Rice affiliates agreed terms for Sealed Air Corporation at $10.2B in Nov-2025. EV / LTM revenue 1.9x EV / LTM EBITDA 9.6x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED A sponsor taking a listed protective packaging platform private suggests a view that the asset base can earn more than it currently does, with a defined programme behind that view. The target's placed-equipment and consumables position gives a recurring revenue stream that supports leverage. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The recorded value is $10.2B at 9.6x EBITDA. That sits above where several of the covered public names trade on CY2027E, consistent with an equipment-and-consumables model rather than commodity substrate volumes.
- 14SECTION 05
05
Section divider introducing the operating moves associated with the top of the valuation range.
The next section turns the data into action: the operating moves this figure set associates with the top of the valuation range. These are the questions we'd put in front of an owner or acquirer over the next twelve months.
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SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS What Moves Your Standing from Here Operating moves the figures in this set point toward. 05 of 06 Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14
- 1505 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Four Operating Moves Associated with the Top of the Valuation Range in This Set
Four operating moves associated with the top of the valuation range: growth mix, integration, contract durability and transaction discipline.
Four operating moves show up alongside the top of this valuation range: pushing growth mix above the sector's split line, deciding where integration earns its capital, making the earnings line durable through the substrate cycle, and reading the transaction record before setting an internal bar. Each is framed as a question for the next twelve months, grounded in the data we've walked through rather than a house forecast. These are observations on what's associated with premium pricing in this set, not a guarantee that any one move repeats it — but they're the right places to start the conversation.
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05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Four Operating Moves Associated with the Top of the Valuation Range in This Set NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15 FOR OWNERS Your Multiple Is an Earnings-Durability Question In the recorded transactions buyers agreed to pay single-digit EBITDA multiples for large converting platforms, close to where the covered public names trade. What moves your position is mix, contract structure and integration — the same things diligence spends its time on. FOR BOARDS Scale Alone Is Not Carrying a Premium Here The bottom of the CY2027E range includes the name that heads the set by enterprise value, while the top is held by a foodservice-weighted converter and a materials and labels business. Capital allocation debates are better framed around growth and integration than around headline tonnage. FOR ACQUIRERS The Bolt-on Maths Still Works Inside the Freight Radius Private equity and integrated strategics are both active in this record, at platform scale and at the converter end. Value in those deals is argued on integration uplift, network density and procurement, with the synergy case discounted for delivery risk and cost to achieve.
- 16SECTION 06
06
Section divider introducing the full comparables universe, methodology and sources.
We close with the full universe behind every figure in this report: the comparables detail, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. This is the reference section for anyone who wants to trace a number back to its source.
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SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16
- 1706 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)
Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier
Public comparables table on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) for all eleven approved companies, grouped by valuation tier.
This appendix lists all eleven approved companies, with the seven rated names shaded against the 8.8x sector median and the four unrated names flagged separately. Every ticker links back to its underlying source, so any multiple in this report can be traced to its record. Use this page as the working reference behind the valuation pages earlier in the deck.
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06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (8.8x); amber marks below · 7 rated companies; 4 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 7 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥10.2x · median 13.1x · 2 companies Karat Packaging Inc. KRT Diversified multi-substrate packaging converting $1.1B 15.9x 12% 12% 21 Avery Dennison Corporation AVY Diversified multi-substrate packaging converting $16.6B 10.3x 6% n/a 20 CORE — 6.9x–10.2x · median 8.8x · 3 companies Packaging Corporation of America PKG Diversified multi-substrate packaging converting $25.0B 10.0x 12% 21% 31 Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. REYN Branded household packaging products (foil, wraps and… $6.1B 8.8x 2% 18% 20 Graphic Packaging Holding Company GPK Diversified multi-substrate packaging converting $8.5B 6.9x 0% 16% 16 DISCOUNT — <6.9x · median 6.6x · 2 companies Sonoco Products Company SON Diversified multi-substrate packaging converting $9.7B 6.8x -1% 18% 21 Smurfit Westrock plc SW Diversified multi-substrate packaging converting $37.9B 6.3x 3% n/a 23
- 1806 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
First page of the full precedent transaction list, newest first, covering the thirty-one deals with disclosed terms.
This is the first half of the full transaction list: thirty-one deals with disclosed terms out of seventy-three recorded, sorted newest first, with multiples on LTM financials at announcement. Deal values link back to the underlying filing wherever one is available. The remaining transactions continue on the next page, and the full companion workbook carries every record.
Everything on this page
06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 31 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (73 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 99 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 42 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 31 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Nov-2025 Clayton, Dubilier & Rice affiliates → Sealed Air Corporation $10.2B 1.9x 9.6x Clayton, Dubilier & Rice affiliates agreed terms for Sealed Air Corporation in Nov-2025, recorded as announced. The recorded revenue mark of 1.9x sits above the other two revenue multiples in this record, and it attaches to a protective packaging and equipment-linked… Nov-2024 Amcor plc → Berry Global Group, Inc. $15.5B 1.3x 8.6x Amcor plc agreed to acquire Berry Global Group, Inc. in Nov-2024, recorded as pending at $15.5B and 1.3x recorded revenue. A combination of this size is argued on network density, plant rationalisation and resin buying rather than on end-market growth. Aug-2024 Altor Solutions → Lifoam Industries LLC $137M n/a n/a Altor Solutions agreed to acquire Lifoam Industries LLC in Aug-2024 at $137M, recorded as announced. Deals of this size are the standard way a protective and foam converting platform adds format capability and plant coverage. Feb-2024 Constantia Flexibles → Aluflexpack AG n/a n/a 8.0x Constantia Flexibles agreed to acquire Aluflexpack AG in Feb-2024 at a recorded 8.0x EBITDA. That mark sits below the middle of the covered public set, which is the usual shape for a flexibles converter bought mainly for footprint. Jul-2023 One Rock Capital Partners, LLC → Constantia Flexibles n/a n/a 8.0x One Rock Capital Partners, LLC agreed to acquire Constantia Flexibles in Jul-2023 at a recorded 8.0x EBITDA. The same platform then appears as a buyer in Feb-2024, which is the bolt-on programme pattern private equity runs at the converter end. Sep-2022 Stora Enso Oyj → De Jong Packaging Group n/a n/a 8.9x Stora Enso Oyj agreed to acquire De Jong Packaging Group in Sep-2022 at a recorded 8.9x EBITDA. A mill owner buying corrugated converting capacity is the integration-rate trade in its plainest form. Feb-2022 Apollo Global Management, Inc. → Novolex Holdings, LLC n/a n/a 9.9x Apollo Global Management, Inc. agreed to acquire Novolex Holdings, LLC in Feb-2022 at a recorded 9.9x EBITDA. That mark sits at the upper end of the multiples recorded here, attached to a foodservice and specialty converting platform. Jan-2022 CCL Industries Inc. → McGavigan Holdings Ltd. $106M n/a 7.2x CCL Industries Inc. agreed to acquire McGavigan Holdings Ltd. in Jan-2022 at $106M and a recorded 7.2x EBITDA, status pending. Capability acquisitions in labels and decorative components clear at single-digit earnings multiples in this record. Feb-2021 International Paper Company → Graphic Packaging International Partners, LLC $30.3B 1.5x n/a International Paper Company and Graphic Packaging International Partners, LLC are recorded in Feb-2021 at $30.3B, as announced. Transactions at this scale between fibre-backed platforms are judged afterwards on network optimisation and integration rate.
- 1906 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
Second page of the full precedent transaction list, completing the thirty-one deals with disclosed terms.
This page completes the transaction list, carrying the remainder of the thirty-one disclosed deals in newest-first order. As on the prior page, multiples are LTM at announcement and are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis, so we don't claim a spread between the two. Together these two pages give a client the complete disclosed-terms record behind the deal commentary earlier in the report.
Everything on this page
06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 31 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (73 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 99 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 42 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 31 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Feb-2021 TiVo Inc. → International Paper Kwidzyn sp. Z.o.o n/a 11.1x 11.1x Jan-2021 Pactiv Evergreen Inc. → Fabri-Kal Corporation n/a n/a 7.0x Nov-2019 Sonoco Products Company → Technical Packaging business (unit of Technical Packaging segment) $191M n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved, divestiture roles reassigned. Mar-2019 Berry Global Group, Inc. → RPC Group Plc n/a n/a 8.5x Jul-2018 Lindsay Goldberg LLC → Coveris Rigid n/a n/a 9.3x Mar-2018 Graphic Packaging Holding Company → International Paper Company n/a n/a 8.6x Dec-2017 Crown Holdings, Inc. → Signode Industrial Group Holdings (Bermuda) Ltd. $3.9B n/a n/a Nov-2017 Berry Global Group, Inc. → Clopay Plastic Products Company, Inc. n/a n/a 9.0x Nov-2017 Clopay Plastics Products Company, Inc. → Berry Global Group, Inc. n/a n/a 9.0x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved.
- 2006 · METHODOLOGY
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality
Methodology page setting out sources, valuation basis and data-quality exclusions behind the report.
This page sets out how the report was built: the sources behind every figure, the valuation basis we applied, and what was excluded and why. Every figure in the body links to the record it was taken from, and where it doesn't, the appendix names the source directly. We include this so a client can independently verify any number before acting on it.
Everything on this page
06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 20 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 11 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Paper and Plastic Packaging and it clears the coverage gate with 7 of 11 companies (64%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 7 of the 7 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 4 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 579 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (578) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.
- 21
In This Set, the Top of the Range Sits with the Faster-Growing Converters.
Closing statement: in this set, the top of the range sits with the faster-growing converters.
In this set, the top of the range sits with the faster-growing converters. The companion tables alongside this deck carry the full universe, the exclusion ledger and the complete source index for any figure worth tracing further.
Everything on this page
In This Set, the Top of the Range Sits with the Faster-Growing Converters. NeuraCap AI — Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Paper and Plastic Packaging Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 21
Sources and methodology
This report covers Paper and Plastic Packaging (Materials › Materials › Paper and Plastic Packaging) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 11 listed companies whose core business is Paper and Plastic Packaging according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Amcor plc (AMCR), Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY), The Eastern Company (EML), Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK), Karat Packaging Inc. (KRT), Myers Industries, Inc. (MYE), Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN), Sonoco Products Company (SON), Smurfit Westrock plc (SW). The market map groups them by business vertical — Diversified multi-substrate packaging converting: 9 companies (SW, AMCR, PKG, AVY, SON, GPK, MYE, KRT, PACK); Adjacent models: 2 companies (REYN, EML). 7 of the 11 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
Scope and company universe
This report covers Paper and Plastic Packaging (Materials › Materials › Paper and Plastic Packaging) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 11 listed companies whose core business is Paper and Plastic Packaging according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Amcor plc (AMCR), Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY), The Eastern Company (EML), Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK), Karat Packaging Inc. (KRT), Myers Industries, Inc. (MYE), Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN), Sonoco Products Company (SON), Smurfit Westrock plc (SW). The market map groups them by business vertical — Diversified multi-substrate packaging converting: 9 companies (SW, AMCR, PKG, AVY, SON, GPK, MYE, KRT, PACK); Adjacent models: 2 companies (REYN, EML). 7 of the 11 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
What was excluded and why
4 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (4 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: PACK — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · PACK — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · PACK — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · PACK — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)
Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen
Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 11 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Paper and Plastic Packaging and it clears the coverage gate with 7 of 11 companies (64%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 7 of the 7 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 7 of 11 companies; EV / rEVenue: 10 of 11 companies; P/E: 9 of 11 companies. 1 company shows a non-meaningful P / E denominator and is excluded from that statistic.
How the multiples and statistics are computed
Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥10.2x, Core 6.9x–10.2x, Discount <6.9x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 8.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) (7 rated companies) · 13.1x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=2) · 8.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Core tier (n=3) · 6.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=2) · 10.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth ≥ 3% (n=4) · 6.9x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth < 3% (n=3) · 20% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=5)
Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why
The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Paper and Plastic Packaging recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 73 transactions were recorded for this industry; 31 are shown. 42 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 54 × no evidence record; 30 × deal value unit unresolved; 8 × duplicate precedent id; 7 × divestiture roles reassigned. Case studies lead with the 3 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.
Sources
Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 28, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 583 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.
Interpretation and important notice
Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.
This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.
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