Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Sector Outlook — September 2026
A sector-level review of Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers, covering the split between diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers and ammonia chemistry, public market valuation on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), and the precedent transaction record — for investors and management teams weighing positioning and
Key figures
- 7.1x
- Sector median multiple EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), 5 of 8 companies rated
- 8.0x
- Range top Highest rated EV/EBITDA (CY2027E)
- 5.3x
- Range bottom Lowest rated EV/EBITDA (CY2027E)
- 88%
- Broad producer group share Share of the 8 companies in diversified nutrition and crop protection
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1 / 21 · MATERIALS › MATERIALS › AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS AND FERTILIZERS
Executive summary
Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers splits into two businesses trading under one label: a broad group of diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers holding seven of the eight companies, and a single ammonia and nitrogen derivative name. On EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), the five rated companies clear a narrow band from 5.3x to 8.0x around a 7.1x median, and margin position does not consistently track multiple across the set.
Key findings
- Ammonia chemistry trades as a distinct segment from diversified nutrition and crop
- Five of eight rated companies clear a narrow band on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E).
- Higher margin does not consistently line up with a higher multiple in this set.
- Precedent deals show buyers agreeing to terms above where the rated set trades today.
What each page shows
The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.
- 01
MATERIALS › MATERIALS › AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS AND FERTILIZERS
This cover page introduces the Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers sector outlook dated September 28, 2026.
This report opens our view on the Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers sector as of September 28, 2026, built on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) as the primary valuation basis. What follows separates two distinct businesses trading under one label, so we can show clients where value concentrates today.
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MATERIALS › MATERIALS › AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS AND FERTILIZERS Ag Chemicals and Fertilizers: Margin and Multiple Diverge A read on where forward earnings multiples sit across the set, which segments hold the weight, and what buyers agreed to pay in the transaction record. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1
- 02CONTENTS
What This Report Covers
This page lists the report's five sections plus the appendix, starting with the bottom line.
We've structured this report so section one carries the full conclusion on its own, with the landscape, valuation, precedent transactions and strategic implications following as support. A reader who stops after the first section still leaves with the complete story. That lets us move quickly to what matters most for a decision.
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CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Two Businesses, One Label, and Margin Sitting on the Cheaper Side 02 The Landscape Nearly the Whole Set Competes in One Broad Group 03 Valuation & Situations The Field Clears Inside a Narrow Band on CY2027E 04 Precedent Transactions What Buyers Agreed to Pay Sits Above Where the Set Clears Today 05 Strategic Implications Mix, Cost Position and Capital Allocation Are the Levers You Hold 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2
- 0301 · THE BOTTOM LINE
Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Splits into Diversified Nutrition and Crop Protection, and Ammonia Chemistry
This page states that the sector splits into a diversified nutrition and crop protection group and a single ammonia chemistry name.
The sector splits cleanly into two businesses: a broad group of diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers, and one ammonia and nitrogen derivative specialist. Of the eight companies in the set, five carry a CY2027E EBITDA estimate, and the middle of that group sits at 7.1x, with the range running from 5.3x to 8.0x. That narrow band means small positioning differences carry real weight, which is why the rest of this report focuses on what separates one company from the next.
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01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Splits into Diversified Nutrition and Crop Protection, and Ammonia Chemistry The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (5 of 8 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 The Middle of the Range Is Crowded, so Small Gaps Carry Weight Of the 8 companies in the set, 5 carry a CY2027E EBITDA estimate, and the middle of that group sits at 7.1x. The top of the range is 8.0x and the bottom is 5.3x, so the whole field is held inside a narrow band and the headline multiple does little sorting on its own. 2 One Group Carries Almost the Whole Weight of This Sector Diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers account for 7 of the 8 companies, 88% of the set, and the middle of their CY2027E multiples is 7.4x. Ammonia and nitrogen derivative chemistry is represented by a single name, LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU), which sits at the bottom of the range. 3 The Names Above the Middle on Margin Sit Below It on Multiple Of the 5 names with a CY2027E estimate, 2 sit above the middle on EBITDA margin and below it on multiple: LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) at 28% and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) at 25%. Two others sit the other way round, so this describes the set as observed rather than establishing that profitability is what sets the price. 4 Buyers in the Record Agreed to Pay Above Where the Set Clears Across the 9 recorded transactions, agreed EBITDA terms run from 7.5x to 15.8x, with the double-digit terms attached to crop protection and specialty nutrition portfolios. One of the nine is completed and eight are recorded as announced, so read them as agreed terms rather than settled outcomes. 7.1x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 5 rated of 8 companies 8.0x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 5.3x at the discount end top quartile (n=1) against bottom quartile (n=1) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 10 Transactions with disclosed terms 52 recorded in this tier · 1 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix
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02
This divider introduces the market map section covering the sector's segment structure.
Seven of the eight companies compete in one broad segment, with a single ammonia specialist standing apart. We use this section to map where value sits before turning to valuation itself.
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SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Nearly the Whole Set Competes in One Broad Group Seven of the eight companies produce both crop nutrition and crop protection. 02 of 06 Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4
- 0502 · MARKET MAP
Where the Value Sits: One Broad Producer Group and One Ammonia Specialist
This page groups the eight companies by business segment and shows median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) by group.
One broad producer group carries almost the entire set, with a single ammonia specialist standing on its own. The broad group's median multiple sits at 7.4x, while the ammonia name sits at the bottom of the range. This grouping is what frames every valuation comparison that follows, so it's the right starting point for any positioning conversation.
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02 · MARKET MAP Where the Value Sits: One Broad Producer Group and One Ammonia Specialist 8 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 DIVERSIFIED CROP NUTRITION AND CROP PROTECTION PRODUCERS 7 cos median 7.4x CF Industries (CF) The Mosaic (MOS) The Scotts (SMG) FMC CVR Partners (UAN) American Vanguard (AVD) Intrepid Potash (IPI) Seven of the eight companies sit here, spanning nutrient tonnes, branded lawn and garden, and crop protection chemistry. AMMONIA AND NITROGEN DERIVATIVE CHEMISTRY 1 cos 5.3x · 1 rated LSB Industries (LXU) A single name whose earnings turn on gas cost position, on-stream factor and ammonia upgrade economics.
- 0602 · LANDSCAPE
Seven of the Eight Companies Compete in the Same Broad Group
This page details what each company does and why it sits in its segment group.
Seven of the eight companies share exposure to both crop nutrition and crop protection, which is why we treat them as one comparable group rather than splitting them further. The remaining name is a distinct ammonia and nitrogen derivative chemistry business. Grouping this way keeps the valuation comparisons that follow honest to what each company actually does.
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02 · LANDSCAPE Seven of the Eight Companies Compete in the Same Broad Group Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers 7 88% 7.4x CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) · The Mosaic Company (MOS) · +5 more Scale, breadth and reach. Seven of the eight companies sit here, spanning nutrient production, branded lawn and garden, and crop protection, and the middle of their CY2027E multiples is 7.4x. Breadth of nutrient slate, registration estates and entrenched distributor relationships are what separate names inside this group. Ammonia and nitrogen derivative chemistry 1 13% 5.3x n=1 LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) One name, one chemistry. LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) is the single ammonia and nitrogen derivative name in the set, 12% of the companies by count. Upgrade flexibility into urea, UAN and nitrates, on-stream factor and gas cost position move this earnings stream, and industrial and low-carbon offtake widens the buyer pool beyond planted acres.
- 07SECTION 03
03
This divider introduces the valuation section covering where the rated companies clear on CY2027E multiples.
The rated field clears inside a narrow band on CY2027E, and we now walk through where each name sits against the top and bottom of that range.
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SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Field Clears Inside a Narrow Band on CY2027E Where each rated name sits against the top and the bottom of the range. 03 of 06 Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7
- 0803 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION
Crop Chemistry Holds the Top of the Range; Ammonia Chemistry the Bottom
This page ranks all five rated companies by EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) against a sector median of 7.1x.
Crop chemistry names hold the top of the range at 8.0x, while ammonia chemistry sits at the bottom at 5.3x, against a sector median of 7.1x. The five rated companies clear inside that band, so the gap between the strongest and weakest positioning is a matter of a few turns, not a different market altogether. That's a tight enough spread that the drivers behind it, not the headline multiple, are what deserve attention next.
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03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION Crop Chemistry Holds the Top of the Range; Ammonia Chemistry the Bottom EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 5 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 7.1x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (5 of 8 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 8.0x CORE · median 7.1x DISCOUNT · median 5.3x Sector median 7.1x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top of the range. FMC Corporation (FMC) sits at 8.0x on CY2027E, the top of the 5 names with a CY2027E estimate. A forward multiple already credits the growth in the forecast, so a premium that survives it points to durability in registrations, label positions and formulation rather than to a single strong season. The bottom of the range. LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) sits at 5.3x on CY2027E while carrying an EBITDA margin above the middle of the covered names. Single-nutrient ammonia exposure, gas cost position and turnaround cadence are the facts a buyer weighs against that margin. The gap is narrow. Between the two ends sit CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), The Mosaic Company (MOS) and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI), three of the 5 names with a CY2027E estimate. With the field held inside a band of a few turns, relative position is argued on mid-cycle earnings quality and cost curve position rather than on the headline multiple.
- 0903 · VALUATION DRIVERS
What the Market Rewards
This page compares median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) across revenue-growth and EBITDA-margin cohorts.
We cut the rated names by revenue growth and by EBITDA margin to see what the market is rewarding within this set. The relationship we observe is an association within this cohort, not a causal rule, so we treat it as a lens rather than a formula. Reading these cuts together helps frame where a name's current positioning is coming from.
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03 · VALUATION DRIVERS What the Market Rewards Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=0; slower n=0; higher-margin n=0; lower-margin n=0). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 Growth the Market Believes In Growth coverage is limited in this universe. Margin Quality Profitability differences compound the growth split rather than replacing it. Business Mix Segment medians differ across Diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers, Ammonia and nitrogen derivative chemistry — mix, not the sector label, sets the multiple.
- 1003 · SITUATION MAP
Margin Above the Middle Is Sitting at a Multiple Below It
This page cuts the rated companies by EV/EBITDA versus the sector median and by EBITDA margin versus the covered median.
Two of the five rated names, LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) at 28% and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) at 25%, sit above the median on margin while trading below it on multiple, a pattern this page maps but does not explain as cause and effect. Two others sit the opposite way, margin below the median but multiple above it. This mismatch is the situation map's core observation, and it sets up the questions on the next page about where to focus.
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03 · SITUATION MAP Margin Above the Middle Is Sitting at a Multiple Below It Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (7.1x) (rows) and EBITDA margin vs the covered median (25%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Priced up with Margin Behind It Above-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 1 names CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Of the 5 names with a CY2027E estimate, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is the one sitting above the middle on both the multiple and EBITDA margin, at 47%. Gas cost position and ammonia upgrade flexibility are the operating facts behind that margin, and they are what a buyer would test on a mid-cycle basis. Priced up, Margin Below the Middle Above-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 2 names The Mosaic Company (MOS) · FMC Corporation (FMC) The Mosaic Company (MOS) at 13% and FMC Corporation (FMC) at 18% sit above the middle on multiple and below it on margin, 2 of the 5 names with a CY2027E estimate. A forward multiple already credits the forecast, so the work here is converting mix, netback and channel sell-through into the margin the price assumes. Margin Above, Multiple Below Below-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 2 names LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) · Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) at 28% and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) at 25% carry margin above the middle at a multiple below it, again 2 of the 5 names with a CY2027E estimate. Single-nutrient concentration and cycle exposure are the usual company facts alongside this combination, and evidence that margin holds through the trough is what would move it. No Names in This Corner Below-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 0 names No rated names sit in this cell as of the analysis date.
- 1103 · THE AGENDA
Where the Next Dollar Goes: Mix, Cost Position or Capacity
This page frames the questions on mix, cost position, and capacity that the data raises for owners and acquirers.
Given where margin and multiple diverge across this set, we frame three questions worth resolving: product mix, cost position, and capacity allocation. These aren't recommendations, they're the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months. Answering them is what separates names that close the gap between margin and multiple from those that don't.
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03 · THE AGENDA Where the Next Dollar Goes: Mix, Cost Position or Capacity NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 Underwrite Margin Through the Trough, Not at Spot The set is priced on CY2027E, and the gap between the top and the bottom of the range is a few turns. What separates names inside that band is whether delivered cash cost per nutrient tonne and on-stream factor hold when realised prices fall, not what they look like in a strong application season. What changes the answer: A full cycle of realised netback and on-stream factor that holds as nutrient prices soften. Weight the Portfolio Toward Registration-Backed Chemistry In the recorded transactions, agreed EBITDA terms reach into double digits where the asset is a registration estate, a patent-protected active or a defensible label position, and sit lower where the asset is post-patent volume. Shifting revenue mix toward protected chemistry and formulation technology is the operating route to that side of the record. What changes the answer: Patent-protected revenue rising as a share of the mix against post-patent volume. Broaden the Slate and the Upgrade Options Single-nutrient or single-asset concentration is the detractor buyers price hardest, and the one name in ammonia and nitrogen derivative chemistry sits at the bottom of the CY2027E range. Upgrade flexibility across urea, UAN and nitrates, plus industrial and low-carbon offtake, widens both the earnings base and the pool of interested capital. What changes the answer: Contracted industrial or low-carbon offtake replacing agricultural spot tonnes. Test Build Against Buy on the Terms in the Record Across the 9 recorded transactions, what buyers agreed to pay for registrations, formulation and regional positions ran into double-digit EBITDA terms, while whole-company nutrient terms sat lower. An internal programme should be measured against those terms on both cost and the years it takes to reach the same label positions. What changes the answer: An internal build whose cost and timeline land above the recorded transaction terms.
- 12SECTION 04
04
This divider introduces the precedent transactions section, covering nine recorded deals.
Nine transactions are in the record, one completed and eight recorded as announced, and what buyers agreed to pay sits above where the rated set clears today. We turn to those deals next to see where that gap concentrates.
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SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS What Buyers Agreed to Pay Sits Above Where the Set Clears Today Nine transactions in the record: one completed, eight recorded as announced. 04 of 06 Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12
- 1304 · DEAL CASE STUDIES
What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Registrations, Portfolios and Nutrient Assets
This page walks through one of the ten disclosed-terms transactions as a case study on what buyers paid for registrations and portfolios.
Across the nine recorded transactions, agreed EBITDA terms run from 7.5x to as high as 15.8x, with the higher terms attaching to registration-backed and specialty portfolios. These are deal multiples on LTM financials at announcement, not on the same CY2027E basis as the public comparables, so we don't claim a direct spread between the two. What this case study shows is the kind of asset that has commanded the top of that range.
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04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Registrations, Portfolios and Nutrient Assets 1 of 10 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 46 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 42 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13 May-2018 $17.7B Tianqi Lithium Corporation Tianqi Lithium Corporation acquires Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. EV / LTM revenue 8.2x EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. works long-life reserves that feed specialty plant nutrition alongside other mineral chemistry, while Tianqi Lithium Corporation comes from the same resource base rather than from the agricultural channel. The transaction suggests a buyer reaching for reserve life and cost position in a resource that serves more than one end market. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Long reserve-life mineral assets of this shape are customarily benchmarked on mid-cycle EBITDA with a replacement-cost and capacity cross-check, because permitting and construction make new supply slow to arrive. That is the frame this pairing sits against rather than a spot earnings multiple.
- 14SECTION 05
05
This divider introduces the strategic implications section on mix, cost position, and capital allocation.
The cycle sets the price of tonnes, but mix, cost position, and capital allocation are the levers management actually holds. We close the report on those choices.
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SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Mix, Cost Position and Capital Allocation Are the Levers You Hold The cycle sets the price of tonnes; the operating decisions are yours. 05 of 06 Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14
- 1505 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Mix, Cost Position and Capital Allocation Are the Levers You Hold
This page sets out the questions on mix, cost position and capital allocation that the data raises for the next twelve months.
With multiples clustered in a narrow band, the decisions that separate one company from the next are mix, cost position, and how capital is allocated across the cycle. These are observations drawn from the analysis in this report, not recommendations tied to any specific security. For owners, boards, and acquirers alike, this is where the next twelve months of positioning gets decided.
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05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Mix, Cost Position and Capital Allocation Are the Levers You Hold NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15 FOR OWNERS Your Standing Is Argued on Mid-Cycle Margin With the 5 names with a CY2027E estimate held inside a narrow band, the multiple is not doing the sorting. Cost curve position, turnaround cadence and the durability of margin through a weak season are the facts that separate one company from the next in this set. FOR BOARDS Capital Allocation Is What the Cycle Does Not Touch Nutrient prices and farmgate economics are outside management control; sustaining capital, upgrade projects, reclamation obligations and the pace of turnarounds are not. Directing capital toward feedstock position, logistics reach and protected chemistry is the decision that compounds across the cycle. FOR ACQUIRERS Registration-Heavy Portfolios Sit at the Upper End of the Record Among the 9 recorded transactions, the double-digit EBITDA terms attach to portfolios built on actives, registrations and regional positions, and one transaction is completed while eight are recorded as announced. Buyers should test what they agreed to pay in those terms against the cost and years of building the same label estate in-house.
- 16SECTION 06
06
This divider introduces the appendix covering the full comparable universe, methodology and sources.
The full universe, the valuation basis, and every underlying disclosure sit in this final section. We include it so any figure in the body can be traced back to where it came from.
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SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16
- 1706 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)
Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier
This page lists all eight companies grouped by valuation tier, with five rated and three not rated on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E).
Five of the eight companies carry an eligible EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) multiple; the other three are listed without one because no eligible multiple exists for them. Teal shading marks names above the 7.1x sector median, amber marks those below it. This is the complete rated set behind every valuation chart earlier in the report.
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06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (7.1x); amber marks below · 5 rated companies; 3 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 5 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥7.6x · median 8.0x · 1 companies FMC Corporation FMC Diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers $5.5B 8.0x 4% 18% 23 CORE — 6.1x–7.6x · median 7.1x · 3 companies CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF Diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers $22.1B 7.6x 15% 47% 29 The Mosaic Company MOS Diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers $13.3B 7.1x 0% 13% 20 Intrepid Potash, Inc. IPI Diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers $353M 6.1x -9% 25% 18 DISCOUNT — <6.1x · median 5.3x · 1 companies LSB Industries, Inc. LXU Ammonia and nitrogen derivative chemistry $1.0B 5.3x 6% 28% 27
- 1806 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
This page lists the first half of the ten transactions with disclosed terms, newest first.
Ten transactions carry disclosed terms out of the recorded universe, and we list them newest first with multiples on LTM financials at announcement. A number of these records carry data-quality flags, such as unresolved deal-value units or reassigned divestiture roles, and we show the figures as recorded rather than adjusting them. This is the evidence base behind the deal terms discussed earlier in the report.
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06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 10 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (52 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 46 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 42 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Jun-2026 Tessenderlo Group NV → FMC Corporation $5.6B 1.7x 7.6x Tessenderlo Group NV completed the acquisition of FMC Corporation (FMC) in Jun-2026 at a recorded $5.6B, 1.7x revenue and 7.6x EBITDA, with the value shown as recorded in the filing. It is the one completed transaction in this record and the closest read on… Jan-2022 Benson Hill, Inc. → ZFS Creston LLC n/a n/a 15.8x Benson Hill, Inc. agreed terms for ZFS Creston LLC in Jan-2022 at 15.8x EBITDA, the top of the agreed EBITDA terms among the nine recorded transactions. Processing and ingredient capacity attached to a crop platform is a different asset from nutrient tonnes, and the… Dec-2021 Albaugh, LLC → Rotam AgroSciences Limited n/a n/a 7.5x Albaugh, LLC agreed terms for Rotam AgroSciences Limited in Dec-2021 at 7.5x EBITDA, the bottom of the agreed EBITDA terms in this record. A post-patent consolidator adding registrations and regional positions sits at the value end of crop protection terms. Nov-2021 Ready Capital Corporation → The Mosaic Company n/a 0.9x n/a Ready Capital Corporation and The Mosaic Company (MOS) are recorded in Nov-2021 at 0.9x revenue. On a revenue basis, bulk phosphate and potash tonnes sit a long way from where branded, registration-backed crop chemistry is recorded. Mar-2021 ICL Brasil Ltda. → Compass Minerals International Inc. (South American Plan Nutrition Business) n/a n/a 9.8x ICL Brasil Ltda. agreed terms in Mar-2021 for Compass Minerals International Inc. (South American Plan Nutrition Business) at 9.8x EBITDA. That multiple sits alongside a regional specialty nutrition business with its own distribution into a major growing basin, and… Sep-2019 Sumitomo Chemical Company → Nufarm Limited n/a n/a 10.0x Sumitomo Chemical Company agreed terms for Nufarm Limited in Sep-2019 at 10.0x EBITDA. A diversified chemical group taking a branded and post-patent crop protection portfolio is one of the repeat shapes across this record. Jan-2019 Syneos (f/k/a INC Research Holdings, Inc.) → Corteva Agriscience n/a n/a 12.2x Corteva Agriscience is recorded in Jan-2019 with Syneos (f/k/a INC Research Holdings, Inc.) at 12.2x EBITDA. Terms in the double digits sit alongside portfolios built on patent-protected actives and broad label positions rather than on nutrient tonnes. Jul-2018 UPL Limited → Arysta LifeScience Inc. n/a n/a 9.9x UPL Limited agreed terms for Arysta LifeScience Inc. in Jul-2018 at 9.9x EBITDA, with the value shown as recorded in the filing. Acquiring an active-ingredient and registration estate outright is how the crop protection consolidators have added reach in this record. Jun-2018 Advent international → Bayer CropScience n/a n/a 11.2x Advent international is recorded in Jun-2018 with Bayer CropScience at 11.2x EBITDA. Specialist private capital underwriting formulation and registration assets sits near the upper end of the agreed terms here.
- 1906 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
This page lists the second half of the ten transactions with disclosed terms, newest first.
The remainder of the ten disclosed-terms transactions continues here, still ordered newest first on the same LTM-at-announcement basis. Deal multiples on this basis are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public multiples used elsewhere in the report, so we don't draw a spread between the two. Together with the prior page, this is the complete disclosed-terms record referenced throughout the deal discussion.
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06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 10 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (52 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 46 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 42 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters May-2018 Tianqi Lithium Corporation → Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. $17.7B 8.2x n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved.
- 2006 · METHODOLOGY
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality
This page explains the valuation basis, what was excluded, and where each disclosure originates.
Our valuation basis throughout is EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus estimates, applied only to companies that clear the plausibility checks used across this analysis, and excluded names are shown as excluded rather than omitted silently. Every multiple and every deal term traces back to a specific SEC filing or consensus estimate, so nothing in this analysis rests on an unverifiable number. That traceability is what lets a client test any figure here against its original source.
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06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 20 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (5 of 8 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers and it clears the coverage gate with 5 of 8 companies (62%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 5 of the 5 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 4 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 427 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (426) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.
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Across This Set, Margin Above the Middle Has Sat Alongside a Multiple Below It.
This closing page restates that margin above the middle has sat alongside a multiple below it across this set.
Across this set, margin above the middle has sat alongside a multiple below it, an observation about how this cohort trades today, not a prediction of what happens next. The complete universe, exclusion ledger, and source index sit in the companion tables for any figure a client wants to trace further. That combination of a clear pattern and a fully traceable record is what we hand off as the basis for the next conversation.
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Across This Set, Margin Above the Middle Has Sat Alongside a Multiple Below It. NeuraCap AI — Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 21
Sources and methodology
This report covers Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers (Materials › Materials › Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 8 listed companies whose core business is Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: American Vanguard Corporation (AVD), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), FMC Corporation (FMC), Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI), LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU), The Mosaic Company (MOS), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG), CVR Partners, LP (UAN). The market map groups them by business vertical — Diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers: 7 companies (CF, MOS, SMG, FMC, UAN, AVD, IPI); Ammonia and nitrogen derivative chemistry: 1 company (LXU). 5 of the 8 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
Scope and company universe
This report covers Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers (Materials › Materials › Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 8 listed companies whose core business is Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: American Vanguard Corporation (AVD), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), FMC Corporation (FMC), Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI), LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU), The Mosaic Company (MOS), The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG), CVR Partners, LP (UAN). The market map groups them by business vertical — Diversified crop nutrition and crop protection producers: 7 companies (CF, MOS, SMG, FMC, UAN, AVD, IPI); Ammonia and nitrogen derivative chemistry: 1 company (LXU). 5 of the 8 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
What was excluded and why
4 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (1 excluded from universe; 3 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: CTA-PB — The security name identifies an instrument rather than an operating company (pfd) (effect: excluded from universe) · AVD — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · AVD — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · FMC — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)
Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen
Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (5 of 8 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers and it clears the coverage gate with 5 of 8 companies (62%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 5 of the 5 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 5 of 8 companies; EV / rEVenue: 6 of 8 companies; P/E: 6 of 8 companies.
How the multiples and statistics are computed
Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥7.6x, Core 6.1x–7.6x, Discount <6.1x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 7.1x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) (5 rated companies) · 8.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=1) · 7.1x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Core tier (n=3) · 5.3x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=1) · 21% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=5)
Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why
The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Agricultural Chemicals and Fertilizers recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 52 transactions were recorded for this industry; 10 are shown. 42 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 15 × deal value unit unresolved; 25 × no evidence record; 2 × duplicate precedent id; 4 × divestiture roles reassigned. Case studies lead with the 1 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.
Sources
Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 28, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 431 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.
Interpretation and important notice
Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.
This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.
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