Steel Bi-Weekly Industry Events & M&A Update — September 14–28, 2026

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BI-WEEKLY INDUSTRY EVENTS & M&A UPDATE

MATERIALS › MATERIALS › STEEL

Guidance Lands Hard at the Priciest Mills and the Field Splits

This update covers the Steel sector over September 14–28, 2026: third-quarter guidance from two of the priciest mills, a halted Ukrainian operation, and an empty transaction record.

September 14–28, 2026

Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Market data through 2026-09-28 · events and transactions from the two-week period 2026-09-14 → 2026-09-28

Steel Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice

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1. 01
   BI-WEEKLY INDUSTRY EVENTS & M&A UPDATE

   MATERIALS › MATERIALS › STEEL

   Cover slide identifying the report as NeuraCap's Steel bi-weekly industry events and M&A update for September 14–28, 2026.

   We open with the two-week window we'll cover: Steel, September 14 to 28, 2026, spanning what moved, who moved it, what transacted, and what it means for the field.

   Everything on this page

   BI-WEEKLY INDUSTRY EVENTS & M&A UPDATE MATERIALS › MATERIALS › STEEL Guidance Lands Hard at the Priciest Mills and the Field Splits This update covers the Steel sector over September 14–28, 2026: third-quarter guidance from two of the priciest mills, a halted Ukrainian operation, and an empty transaction record. September 14–28, 2026 Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data through 2026-09-28 · events and transactions from the two-week period 2026-09-14 → 2026-09-28 Steel Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1

2. 02
   THE BI-WEEKLY BOTTOM LINE

   Guidance, Not Deals, Set the Tone for the Two-Week Period

   This slide summarizes the two-week period: 11 covered names, a sector median move of -0.8%, and guidance as the dominant driver.

   This page is the two-week story in one page: 11 covered names, close-to-close, and the headline is that guidance — not deals — set the tone. Seven of eleven names fell and the median move was -0.8%, against a +1.6% return for the S&P 500 over the same stretch. That gap tells us the sector detached from the broader market this period, and the spread between the best and worst movers was wide enough that the median alone doesn't capture it. So what: names that could speak clearly to spread and volume outperformed regardless of price tier.

   Everything on this page

   THE BI-WEEKLY BOTTOM LINE Guidance, Not Deals, Set the Tone for the Two-Week Period The two-week period in one page · 11 covered names, close-to-close · September 14–28, 2026 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (universe, prices, filings, transaction records); publisher-sourced news where linked; market data through 2026-09-28. Driver attributions use calibrated language and are NeuraCap reads of the recorded evidence. Steel Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2 1 7 of 11 Covered Names Fell; The Median Move Was -0.8% The S&P 500 returned +1.6% over the same window. Inside the covered set the spread ran from +4.5% at the top to -6.8% at the bottom, so the median understates how far apart the field traded. 2 Two Premium-Tier Mills Guided on the Same Day and Both Traded Down Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) guided third-quarter earnings to $5.34 to $5.38 per diluted share on September 17 and Nucor Corporation (NUE) issued its own guidance the same day. Nucor's worst session was -6.3% on September 18; Barron's reported that both fell after the guides. 3 A Single-Site Outage Reset One Producer's Supply Picture ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) reported on September 15 that a missile strike halted primary steel production at Kryvyi Rih, and said on September 25 it cannot safely and sustainably restart the operation. Shares ended the window at -2.9%. 4 No Transactions Priced, so the Reference Record Is Unchanged The trailing record still carries a median of 6.6x EV/EBITDA across 40 precedent transactions, against a CY2027E sector median of 5.7x for the covered field. NeuraCap's read: buyers had nothing new to benchmark against this period. +4.5% Best mover — Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) worst: SID -6.8% · 4 up / 7 down of 11 covered -0.8% Sector median two-week return vs S&P 500 +1.6% 2 Company filings in the window 8-K events read for driver attribution

3. 03
   PUBLIC MARKET MOVERS

   Guidance Explained the Big Moves; Two Declines Ran Without a Record

   This slide breaks down the two-week's biggest stock moves and links each to a recorded driver where one exists.

   Guidance did the heavy lifting this period: Steel Dynamics and Nucor both guided on September 17, and Nucor's worst session came in at -6.3% the next day. ArcelorMittal ended the window at -2.9% after reporting it could not safely restart its Kryvyi Rih operation, while Cleveland-Cliffs rose +4.5% on what we read as a complex-wide rebound. The full field ranged as wide as -6.8% at the bottom, well past our ±2.5% materiality bar, so the median alone hides how differently these names traded. So what: dispersion, not the average, is the story to carry into the next conversation with the field.

   Everything on this page

   PUBLIC MARKET MOVERS Guidance Explained the Big Moves; Two Declines Ran Without a Record Bi-Weekly moves, close-to-close · September 14–28, 2026 · sector median -0.8% · S&P 500 +1.6% · materiality bar ±2.5% (sector-relative) Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (universe, prices, filings, transaction records); publisher-sourced news where linked; market data through 2026-09-28. Attribution links each move only to filings and headlines recorded in the window; where no driver is recorded, the page says so. Calibrated language throughout — NeuraCap reads, not asserted causation. Steel Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 Bi-Weekly return per company · teal above zero, amber below · sector median -0.8% Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) -6.8% No notable in-window news was identified that clearly explains the move. At -6.8%, it was the steepest decline in the covered set against a median of -0.8%. The bottom of the field moved further this period than the sector average implies. UNEXPLAINED Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) +4.5% Shares rose as a September 22 report described a month-long rebound across the US steel complex, with the stock at $12.69, up 5%. The biggest session was +5.0% on September 17, the day Cleveland-Cliffs featured in CNBC's 'Final Trades'. The bid reached the Core tier on complex-wide momentum rather than on company disclosure. SECTOR-WIDE POSCO Holdings Inc. (PKX) -4.5% No notable in-window news was identified that clearly explains the move. At -4.5%, the decline ran well below the -0.8% median for the covered set. Dispersion inside the covered field is running wider than the median move suggests. UNEXPLAINED Nucor Corporation (NUE) -2.9% Shares moved following the third-quarter guidance Nucor issued on September 17, with the worst session at -6.3% on September 18. Barron's reported the same week that both Nucor and Steel Dynamics fell after underwhelming guidance. Premium-tier pricing raises the bar on what a single quarterly guide has to carry. COMPANY-SPECIFIC

4. 04
   MAJOR NEWS & INDUSTRY CATALYSTS

   What the Mills Actually Did: Guidance, Crews and Input Contracts

   This slide lists the two-week's highest-impact events: Steel Dynamics' Q3 guidance and ArcelorMittal's Kryvyi Rih production halt.

   Steel Dynamics guided third-quarter earnings to $5.34 to $5.38 per diluted share on September 17, giving the market a firm read on where the quarter is landing. ArcelorMittal reported on September 15 that a missile strike had halted primary steel production at Kryvyi Rih, and followed on September 25 with word that the site cannot safely and sustainably restart. These are the two events that reset expectations for the field this period, one on earnings and one on supply. So what: both are now reference points operators and buyers should hold against the next round of guidance and output data.

   Everything on this page

   MAJOR NEWS & INDUSTRY CATALYSTS What the Mills Actually Did: Guidance, Crews and Input Contracts The two-week period's highest-impact events · titles link to the underlying filing or article · September 14–28, 2026 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (universe, prices, filings, transaction records); publisher-sourced news where linked; market data through 2026-09-28. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap reads; each event links to its source. Sources are admitted in a fixed reliability order (SEC filings, press releases, established outlets); video and social platforms are never used. Steel Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4 Sep 21 · NEWS · PRNewsWire Commercial Metals set October 15 for its fiscal fourth quarter and full year results call It places a Premium-tier long products producer next in line to mark metal spread, shipments and the rebar order book for the sector. The next dated read on long products demand is now on the calendar. Sep 18 · NEWS · GlobeNewsWire Commercial Metals expanded a technician training collaboration with a new Baltimore site Conversion cost per tonne depends on staffed, qualified crews. Building the technician pipeline is a structural cost lever that sits outside the cycle. Labour capability is becoming part of how operators argue their cost curve position. Sep 18 · NEWS · Barrons Nucor and Steel Dynamics shares fell after both mills issued third-quarter guidance Two of the highest-priced names in the field guided on the same day and both were marked lower, which is consistent with NeuraCap's standing view that the higher-priced half is not the stronger-performing half. Price tier and near-term performance are pointing in different directions right now. Sep 17 · NEWS · PRNewsWire Steel Dynamics guided third-quarter earnings to $5.34 to $5.38 per diluted share The guide re-anchors what buyers and owners assume about mid-cycle margin per tonne for a Premium-tier minimill operator. Mid-cycle assumptions get rewritten every guidance cycle, not every deal cycle. Sep 17 · NEWS · PRNewsWire Nucor issued third-quarter guidance for the quarter ending October 3 A Premium-tier producer put a current read on metal spread and shipments in front of the market before the quarter closed, and the market marked it down. Guidance season is doing more to move this sector than any transaction did. Sep 17 · NEWS · Benzinga Cleveland-Cliffs named among CNBC's 'Final Trades' picks on September 17 Attention landed on a Core-tier name on the day of its largest single-session gain, which points to where interest in the domestic complex is currently directed. Investor focus this period sat with the US complex rather than the cross-border names.

5. 05
   M&A & STRATEGIC ACTIVITY

   Buyers Stayed Quiet While the Existing Reference Record Sets the Bar

   This slide reports that no new M&A transactions priced this period, leaving the 6.6x EV/EBITDA precedent median as the reference.

   No new transactions priced in this window, so the trailing record still carries the weight: a median of 6.6x EV/LTM EBITDA across 40 precedent deals. That sits above the CY2027E sector median of 5.7x for the covered field, a gap worth watching as a possible entry point for the next transaction to reset the benchmark. With buyers quiet, there's nothing new to underwrite against, so the existing record remains the working anchor. So what: the next deal that prices, wherever it lands relative to 6.6x, will move the reference point for every conversation that follows.

   Everything on this page

   M&A & STRATEGIC ACTIVITY Buyers Stayed Quiet While the Existing Reference Record Sets the Bar September 14–28, 2026 · precedent transactions: 40 recorded deals · median 6.6x EV/LTM EBITDA Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (universe, prices, filings, transaction records); publisher-sourced news where linked; market data through 2026-09-28. Deal multiples are LTM at announcement where disclosed; "why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. No old transactions are re-presented as news. Steel Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 No Material Transactions Announced No material sector transactions were announced during the period. The trailing record still carries a median of 6.6x EV/EBITDA across 40 precedent transactions, so the benchmark buyers work from is unchanged. A quiet two-week period is information: buyer appetite, financing conditions and seller expectations all read through a period with no new deals. The precedent transactions alongside still frame what buyers have paid. 40 Recorded precedent transactions the reference set buyers and sellers price against 6.6x Precedent median EV/LTM EBITDA LTM at announcement, where disclosed

6. 06
   WHAT IT MEANS

   What the Period Means for Operators, Buyers and Advisors

   This slide translates the two-week period into implications for operators, acquirers and advisors.

   For operators, the guide was the scoreboard this period, and names that could point to a firm read on spread and shipped tonnes set the terms of conversation. For acquirers, the reference point hasn't moved: the trailing 6.6x EV/EBITDA median across 40 precedents stands against a 5.7x CY2027E sector median for the covered field. For advisors, the story to lead with is dispersion — two Premium-tier mills guided the same day and both traded down, while Cleveland-Cliffs, a Core-tier name, rose +4.5%. So what: the tier a name sits in explains less this period than how clearly it could speak to its own numbers.

   Everything on this page

   WHAT IT MEANS What the Period Means for Operators, Buyers and Advisors The two-week period translated for the people who act on it · NeuraCap view · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform (universe, prices, filings, transaction records); publisher-sourced news where linked; market data through 2026-09-28. This page is analytical interpretation drawn from the two-week period's recorded evidence. It is not investment advice. Steel Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Sector study 2026-09-28 EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) median 5.7x 11 companies in the study 3 valuation tiers Standing thesis: Steel Is Priced as One Field of Multi-Route Producers, and the Higher-Priced Half Is Not the Faster-Growing Half FOR OWNERS & OPERATORS The Guide Is the Scoreboard, and Mix Decides How It Lands Companies in the space that could point to a firm read on metal spread, tonnes shipped and EBITDA per tonne set the terms of the conversation this period. FOR ACQUIRERS Nothing New Priced, so the Anchor Stays Where It Was With no transactions in the window, the trailing median of 6.6x EV/EBITDA across 40 precedents remains the reference point, against a CY2027E sector median of 5.7x for the covered field. ArcelorMittal S.A. FOR ADVISORS Lead with Dispersion, Not with the Average The evidence to lead with is the gap between price tier and near-term performance: two Premium-tier mills guided on September 17 and both traded down, while Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF), a Core-tier name, rose +4.5% on a complex-wide rebound.

7. 07
   SOURCES & METHODOLOGY

   Sources, Methodology and Important Notice

   This slide explains how the update is built and how sourced facts are distinguished from NeuraCap's calibrated reads.

   Every figure on these pages ties back to a recorded filing, price series or publisher-linked article from the window ending September 28, 2026. We flag calibrated reads separately from recorded fact throughout, so the driver language on the earlier pages reflects NeuraCap's interpretation, not asserted causation. So what: readers can trace any number here back to its source before acting on it.

   Everything on this page

   SOURCES & METHODOLOGY Sources, Methodology and Important Notice How this bi-weekly update is built and what each kind of statement rests on · September 14–28, 2026 · market data through 2026-09-28 Every figure in this update links to the record it was taken from; the publishers and filings drawn on for the period are listed above. Steel Bi-Weekly Update | September 14–28, 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 7 OBSERVED DATA Bi-Weekly stock moves are computed close-to-close over the stated window from the platform’s price series. Deal records, values and multiples come from the platform’s transaction record (SEC 8-K extractions) exactly as recorded; each figure links to its citation. Treasury rates come from the platform’s Treasury series and are shown only when the 10-year moved at least ten basis points over the window (it did not in this window, so no rate figures appear). UNIVERSE QUALITY The update universe is the platform’s approved company set for this sector, subject to a $100M market-cap floor so small, loosely related names cannot dominate the statistics. No covered name fell below the floor in this window. EVENTS & NEWS Company events are in-window 8-K filings; news items are publisher-sourced headlines fetched for the window (and any externally supplied items, marked as such). Operational and strategic developments (deals, partnerships, launches, expansion, guidance, leadership, regulatory outcomes) are shown first; capital-return mechanics and conference appearances are limited to one each. Every event links to its source. The deck never asserts an event that has no linked record. SOURCE HIERARCHY News is admitted in a fixed order of reliability: SEC filings first, then company press releases and investor-relations communications, then transaction documents, then established outlets (Reuters, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s and peers). Video and social platforms — including YouTube — are never used as sources. DRIVER ATTRIBUTION A stock move is linked to an event only when the event falls inside the window, and only in calibrated language ("the move appears to reflect…", "shares moved following…"). Where no driver is recorded, the page says so and compares the move to the sector median instead. ANALYTICAL INTERPRETATION "Why it matters", "why the deal happened" and the what-it-means page are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence, and are labeled as such. INHERITED CONTEXT The standing sector view (thesis, valuation lens, sector median and tiering) is inherited from the NeuraCap sector study run_20260928T093303Z_331_prod (market data as of 2026-09-28) — distilled, never re-derived. That report’s own sources page governs its content; this update reads the period against it. IMPORTANT NOTICE This report is informational only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here. Linked sources this two-week period: prnewswire.com · globenewswire.com · barrons.com · benzinga.com · reuters.com

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