Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Sector Outlook — September 2026

Read the report

SlidesScroll

1 of 23

←→Full screen

ENERGY › ENERGY › OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

Oil and Gas E&P: Priced as One Band, Not 48 Stories

How the market values upstream operators today, where a real gap still sits inside that pricing, and what recent agreed transactions show.

September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E)

Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice

Sources & methodology

1

← Previous

1 / 23 · Oil and Gas E&P: Priced as One Band, Not 48 Stories

Next →

What each page shows

The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.

1. 01
   ENERGY › ENERGY › OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

   Oil and Gas E&P: Priced as One Band, Not 48 Stories

   Cover slide introducing the sector outlook and its central finding that E&P names price as one valuation band rather than 48 separate stories.

   We open with the headline finding: across the Oil and Gas Exploration and Production sector, 48 companies price inside one band rather than as 48 distinct stories. That framing sets up everything that follows — where the real separation sits, and what it means for how you run or evaluate an upstream business.

   Everything on this page

   ENERGY › ENERGY › OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION Oil and Gas E&P: Priced as One Band, Not 48 Stories How the market values upstream operators today, where a real gap still sits inside that pricing, and what recent agreed transactions show. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1

2. 02
   CONTENTS

   What This Report Covers

   This page lists the report's five numbered sections plus the appendix.

   We've structured this report so section one carries the full argument on its own — the bottom line, the landscape, valuation and situations, precedent transactions, and strategic implications follow in support. A reader who stops after section one still leaves with the complete story, so we recommend starting there and using the rest to go deeper where it matters most.

   Everything on this page

   CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line The Whole Field Prices Inside One Narrow Band 02 The Landscape The Independents Set the Field; The Majors' Upstream Prices Above It 03 Valuation & Situations Gas Weighting and Major-Company Scale Sit at the Top of the Range 04 Precedent Transactions What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Scale, Acreage and Producing Cash Flow 05 Strategic Implications Gas Mix, Asset Life and Margin Discipline Line up with the Higher Multiples 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2

3. 03
   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE

   Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Prices as One Band: Majors' Upstream Above, Independents Below

   This page states the report's core finding: the majors' upstream segments price above the band and the independents sit below it.

   On a CY2027E EV/EBITDA basis, covering 40 of the 48 companies in the field, we find one narrow valuation band rather than a ladder of distinct stories. Within that band, the integrated majors' upstream segments consistently sit above the multi-basin independents. That gap is real but bounded, so the practical question for any operator or acquirer is what specifically earns a place at the top of the range — which the rest of this report answers.

   Everything on this page

   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Prices as One Band: Majors' Upstream Above, Independents Below The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (40 of 48 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 Most of the Set Trades Inside One Narrow Band The field runs to 48 companies; on the 40 names with a CY2027E estimate, EV / EBITDA runs from 2.4x to 7.1x with the middle at 4.2x. That is a band rather than a ladder, so the separation available on company-specific quality is bounded. 2 A Real Gap Still Separates the Two Ends The top ten of the 40 names with a CY2027E estimate sit at 6.1x against 2.7x for the bottom ten. A forward multiple already credits the EBITDA the market expects, so a position at the upper end reads as durability of cash rather than one good year. 3 The Upper Half Tends to Carry Gas Weighting and Balance-Sheet Depth The integrated majors' upstream segments sit at 5.2x, with 6 of those 7 names carrying an estimate, against 4.1x across the multi-basin independents. Natural-gas-weighted producers such as EQT Corporation (EQT), Antero Resources Corporation (AR) and Range Resources Corporation (RRC) sit at the upper end alongside them. 4 Two Recent Agreements Were Struck Above the Listed Band Of the 9 transactions shown here, Devon Energy Corporation's completed combination with Coterra Energy Inc. was struck at 12.6x EV / EBITDA and Woodside Energy's announced agreement for Williams Companies at 14.5x. Both of those terms sit above the band the listed names trade in, while other agreed terms in the record were struck below it. 4.2x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 40 rated of 48 companies 6.1x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 2.7x at the discount end top quartile (n=10) against bottom quartile (n=10) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 130 Transactions with disclosed terms 426 recorded in this tier · 3 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix

4. 04
   SECTION 02

   02

   Section divider introducing the market map and landscape sections.

   Section two turns to who sits in each group and how each group is priced. We'll show that the independents set the field while the majors' upstream businesses price above it.

   Everything on this page

   SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE The Independents Set the Field; The Majors' Upstream Prices Above It Who sits in each group, and how each group is valued. 02 of 06 Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4

5. 05
   02 · MARKET MAP

   83% of the Field Is Multi-Basin Independents, and the Majors' Upstream Prices Above Them

   This page groups the 48 approved companies by business segment and shows the median EV/EBITDA for each group.

   Multi-basin independents make up 83% of the field, so their pricing effectively sets the sector median. Yet the majors' upstream segments, though a small share of the count, price above that median. That combination — a large discount cohort and a small premium cohort — is exactly what produces the narrow-band, real-gap pattern we opened with.

   Everything on this page

   02 · MARKET MAP 83% of the Field Is Multi-Basin Independents, and the Majors' Upstream Prices Above Them 48 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 MULTI-BASIN INDEPENDENT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION 40 cos median 4.1x EOG Resources (EOG) Occidental (OXY) Diamondback Energy (FANG) EQT Devon Energy (DVN) Ovintiv (OVV) Expand Energy (EXE) Permian Resources (PR) APA Antero Resources (AR) SM Energy (SM) Vista Energy, (VIST) Matador Resources (MTDR) Range Resources (RRC) Crescent Energy (CRGY) Chord Energy (CHRD) +24 more The 40 companies whose inventory runway, base decline and corporate breakeven the market re-prices every day. INTEGRATED MAJORS' UPSTREAM SEGMENTS 7 cos median 5.2x Exxon Mobil (XOM) Chevron (CVX) TotalEnergies SE (TTE) BP p.l.c. (BP) Eni S.p.A. (E) Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) National Fuel Gas (NFG) Seven names whose upstream sits inside a larger company, carrying funding depth and portfolio breadth few independents hold. DEVELOPMENT-DRILLING-LED UNCONVENTIONAL OPERATORS 1 cos 2.4x · 1 rated Sable Offshore (SOC) One name, Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC), where value turns on bringing development volumes online rather than on today's cash flow.

6. 06
   02 · LANDSCAPE

   Three Kinds of Upstream Business, Priced Three Different Ways

   This page describes the three business segments in the universe and how each is priced on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E).

   We break the approved universe into three kinds of upstream business, each priced differently on a CY2027E EV/EBITDA basis. Seeing what each group does, not just its multiple, is what makes the pricing gap between them legible rather than just a number. Full company-level detail sits in the appendix for any name you want to check individually.

   Everything on this page

   02 · LANDSCAPE Three Kinds of Upstream Business, Priced Three Different Ways Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Multi-basin independent exploration and production 40 83% 4.1x EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) · Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) · +38 more Forty names, one price band. Operators spread across basins, 33 of these 40 companies carrying a CY2027E estimate, sitting at 4.1x. The story here is inventory runway, base decline and maintenance capital: how many years of drilling sit behind today's activity, and what it costs to hold volumes flat. Integrated majors' upstream segments 7 15% 5.2x Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) · Chevron Corporation (CVX) · +5 more Upstream inside a larger company. Seven names, 6 of them carrying a CY2027E estimate, sitting at 5.2x. Funding depth, long-dated debt and portfolio breadth sit alongside that upper-end pricing, and these businesses can hold activity steady through a soft price stretch. Development-drilling-led unconventional operators 1 2% 2.4x n=1 Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) One name, volumes still ramping. Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) is the single company in this group, at 2.4x with 64% revenue growth. With one name there is no group read, and the pricing reflects that value here rests on volumes that are still being brought online.

7. 07
   SECTION 03

   03

   Section divider introducing the public market valuation section.

   Section three puts the premium end of the range against the discount end on CY2027E EV/EBITDA. We'll show that gas weighting and major-company scale sit at the top.

   Everything on this page

   SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS Gas Weighting and Major-Company Scale Sit at the Top of the Range The premium end against the discount end on CY2027E EV / EBITDA. 03 of 06 Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7

8. 08
   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION

   Gas-Weighted Names and the Majors' Upstream Hold the Top of the Range

   This page ranks the 12 highest and 12 lowest of the 40 rated companies on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) against the 4.2x sector median.

   Gas-weighted names and the majors' upstream segments hold the top of the range, against a sector median of 4.2x. The 16 mid-cohort names cluster near that median, which is consistent with the narrow-band framing from section one. So the real work for any operator is understanding what specifically separates the top-12 group from the bottom-12 group — which the next two pages address.

   Everything on this page

   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION Gas-Weighted Names and the Majors' Upstream Hold the Top of the Range EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · the 12 highest and 12 lowest of 40 rated companies · sector median 4.2x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (40 of 48 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). The 16 mid-cohort names cluster near the median; the full set is in the appendix and companion tables. Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM END — majors' upstream and gas-weighted independents · median 6.1x DISCOUNT END — oil-weighted independents and late-life or non-operated positions · median 2.7x Sector median 4.2x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top sits at 6.1x. The 10 names at the premium end sit at 6.1x on CY2027E against 2.7x for the 10 at the discount end. A forward multiple already credits the EBITDA the market expects, so a premium that survives it points to durability of cash rather than a single strong year. Revenue growth sits at the bottom. Some of the faster-growing names sit at the discount end: Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) at 33% revenue growth and Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC) at 19%. The premium end holds names with flat or modestly declining revenue, so the gap is associated with the character of the cash, and not with its direction of travel. Cash margin runs high throughout. High margins run across both ends: Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) at 73% sits at the premium end while SM Energy Company (SM) at 70% sits at the discount end. What practitioners weigh between two such names is basin mix, basis differential, secured takeaway and the length of the drilling inventory behind the volumes.

9. 09
   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS

   Growth and Margin Both Line up with Where the Higher Multiples Sit

   This page compares median EV/EBITDA for faster- versus slower-growth cohorts and higher- versus lower-margin cohorts.

   Growth and margin both line up with where the higher multiples sit, when we split the rated names at their own covered medians. That's an association in the data, not a claim that either driver causes the pricing — but the alignment is consistent enough to be a useful lens for any operator asking what the market is rewarding. We'd read this alongside the situation map, which layers growth against the valuation cut directly.

   Everything on this page

   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS Growth and Margin Both Line up with Where the Higher Multiples Sit Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=20; slower n=20; higher-margin n=20; lower-margin n=20). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at -2% · EBITDA-margin split at 59% Growth the Market Believes In Names growing at or above -2% carry 3.3x against 4.9x below it. Margin Quality Profitability differences compound the growth split rather than replacing it. Business Mix Segment medians differ across Multi-basin independent exploration and production, Integrated majors' upstream segments — mix, not the sector label, sets the multiple.

10. 10
    03 · SITUATION MAP

    Long-Life Gas Names Sit at the Top of the Range and Oil-Volume Names Below the Middle

    This page cuts the rated names on EV/EBITDA versus the sector median and on revenue growth versus the covered median to characterize situations, not to recommend positions.

    Long-life gas names sit at the top of the range and oil-volume names sit below the middle, once we cut the field on valuation against growth. These are observations about where different kinds of businesses sit today, not recommendations to buy or sell any security. The pattern is a useful starting point for asking why a given name sits where it does.

    Everything on this page

    03 · SITUATION MAP Long-Life Gas Names Sit at the Top of the Range and Oil-Volume Names Below the Middle Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (4.2x) (rows) and revenue growth vs the covered median (-2%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Priced up and Growing Above-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 7 names EQT Corporation (EQT) · Antero Resources Corporation (AR) · Range Resources Corporation (RRC) · +4 more 7 of the 40 names with a CY2027E estimate price above the middle while growing revenue above it, including EQT Corporation (EQT), Antero Resources Corporation (AR) and Range Resources Corporation (RRC). This is the gas-weighted end, where duration of cash and proximity to export and power demand are what practitioners weigh. Priced up, Volumes Flat Above-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 13 names Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) · Chevron Corporation (CVX) · TotalEnergies SE (TTE) · +10 more 13 names price above the middle with revenue growth below it, among them Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Chevron Corporation (CVX) and EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG). Funded distributions and balance-sheet depth sit alongside these multiples; volume expansion does not. Growing, Priced Below the Middle Below-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 13 names Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) · Permian Resources Corporation (PR) · SM Energy Company (SM) · +10 more 13 names grow revenue above the middle yet price below it, including Devon Energy Corporation (DVN), Matador Resources Company (MTDR) and Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY). For an owner here the question is which part of the story is being discounted: decline profile, inventory runway, or the durability of this year's volumes. Below the Middle on Both Below-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 7 names Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) · APA Corporation (APA) · Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) · +4 more 7 of the 40 names with a CY2027E estimate sit below the middle on both measures, including APA Corporation (APA), Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) and Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS). Cash operating cost per barrel of oil equivalent, basis exposure and maintenance capital are where operating attention tends to go from here.

11. 11
    03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY

    Names Clearing Both the Growth and Margin Bars Price Below Those Clearing Neither

    This page plots revenue growth against EBITDA margin for 40 companies with both estimates and shows the median EV/EBITDA for each quadrant.

    Names clearing both the growth and margin bars actually price below those clearing neither, on the medians we can compute for each quadrant. That's a counterintuitive read against the simple growth-and-margin story from the prior page, so it's worth holding both readings side by side rather than picking one. What it tells us is that the market is pricing something more specific than growth or margin alone — which section three's agenda page turns into questions for an operator to resolve.

    Everything on this page

    03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY Names Clearing Both the Growth and Margin Bars Price Below Those Clearing Neither Revenue growth (CY2027E, x-axis) vs EBITDA margin (CY2027E, y-axis) · 40 companies with both estimates · cuts at the covered medians (-2% growth, 59% margin) · median EV/EBITDA per quadrant · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Quadrant cuts are the covered set's medians. Quadrant medians on names with a meaningful EV/EBITDA (balanced n=11; margin-only n=9; growth-only n=9; neither n=11). SOC plotted at the chart edge. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 0% 20% 40% 20% 40% 60% 80% MARGIN ONLY median 4.2x BALANCED median 3.3x NEITHER median 5.0x GROWTH ONLY median 4.5x CVX XOM EQT TALO AR BKV MGY SOC x: revenue growth (CY2027E) · y: EBITDA margin (CY2027E) HOW TO READ THIS The map splits the 40 names with a CY2027E estimate two ways: revenue growth at -2% and margin at 59%. The 11 names clearing both bars — EQT Corporation (EQT), Permian Resources Corporation (PR) and Matador Resources Company (MTDR) among them — sit at 3.3x, while the 11 clearing neither sit at 5.0x. The 9 names above the growth bar alone sit at 4.5x. Rule of 40 (revenue growth + EBITDA margin ≥ 40%): 30 of 40 names clear it.

12. 12
    03 · THE AGENDA

    The Operating Choices That Sit Alongside the Higher End of the Band

    This page frames the operating choices that sit alongside the higher end of the valuation range as questions for an owner or acquirer to resolve.

    We've turned the valuation drivers into a short list of operating questions: what kind of cash a business is selling, where cost and basis are controlled, whether to build or buy inventory, and how the balance sheet is sized for a down-cycle. These are NeuraCap's observations grounded in the cohort data shown earlier, not investment recommendations. Working through them is what turns this pricing pattern into a decision an owner can act on.

    Everything on this page

    03 · THE AGENDA The Operating Choices That Sit Alongside the Higher End of the Band NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12 Decide Which Kind of Cash the Business Is Selling Proved developed producing cash flow, proved undeveloped locations and resource optionality are underwritten differently by buyers and by the market. Being clear which of the three carries the value shapes how capital is split between holding volumes flat and adding runway. What changes the answer: A change in the years of drilling behind current activity, or in the maintenance capital needed to hold volumes flat. Work the Cost Line and the Basis, Since Price Is Set Elsewhere Producers take the price the market clears; lease operating expense per barrel of oil equivalent, cash operating cost and realized price versus benchmark stay in management's hands. Those lines are what separate two operators with similar reserves. What changes the answer: Movement in netback per unit against peers producing in the same basin. Test Build Against Buy on the Cost of a Drilling Year The transactions shown here run from a $410M asset package to whole-company combinations, and both routes add years of inventory. The comparison to run is the cost of adding locations through the drill bit against the cost of buying them. What changes the answer: Agreed terms in the asset market moving relative to where the 40 names with a CY2027E estimate trade. Size the Balance Sheet for the Down-Cycle, Not the Strip Names at the upper end pair modest volume movement with funding capacity and covenant headroom. Maturity profile, hedge construction and asset retirement obligations are the exposures that shape whether activity holds when prices soften. What changes the answer: Near-term maturities landing inside a weak price stretch.

13. 13
    SECTION 04

    04

    Section divider introducing the precedent transactions section.

    Section four turns to what buyers have agreed to pay for scale, acreage and producing cash flow. Nine transactions are shown here as case studies, drawn from a wider recorded set.

    Everything on this page

    SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Scale, Acreage and Producing Cash Flow Nine transactions in the record shown here, some announced and some completed. 04 of 06 Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13

14. 14
    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES

    Agreed Terms Span from Below the Listed Band to Well Above It

    This page presents three of the transactions with disclosed terms as case studies, showing agreed multiples spanning below and above the listed valuation band.

    Agreed terms in this record span from well below the listed band to well above it — the case studies here make that range concrete rather than abstract. Deal multiples are LTM at announcement, which is a different basis from the CY2027E public multiples in section three, so we don't claim a direct spread between the two. What the range does tell us is that buyers are pricing specific assets and combinations on their own terms, not simply paying the public multiple.

    Everything on this page

    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Agreed Terms Span from Below the Listed Band to Well Above It 3 of 130 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 628 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate filings collapsed); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 296 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14 Dec-2024 $272B Woodside Energy Group Ltd acquires Chevron Corporation EV / LTM revenue 1.4x EV / LTM EBITDA 5.7x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Upstream deal flow runs on two tracks: corporate combinations bought for scale and inventory duration, and a continuous asset market in which non-core producing packages change hands. A transaction in this record fits one of those two logics, and each is underwritten differently. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Upstream consideration is built off a discounted-cash-flow value from a reserve report run at a forward price strip, then cross-checked against value per flowing barrel of oil equivalent and value per undeveloped acre. The listed benchmark for any agreed multiple is the 40 names with a CY2027E estimate, whose middle sits at 4.2x. Feb-2026 $112B Woodside Energy Woodside Energy agreed a $112B combination with Williams Companies, announced in February 2026. EV / LTM revenue 9.4x EV / LTM EBITDA 14.5x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED The buyer is an upstream producer and the target does not sit in the 48-company field screened here, so the transaction suggests a portfolio-level decision on mix rather than a basin bolt-on. At this size it is a choice about where the acquirer's cash flows come from over the next decade. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The announced terms are 14.5x EV / EBITDA and 9.4x EV / Revenue. Both sit well above the band the 40 names with a CY2027E estimate trade in, so the terms are being benchmarked against something other than current listed upstream multiples. Feb-2026 $58.0B Devon Energy Corporation Devon Energy Corporation and Coterra Energy Inc. completed a $58.0B combination of two large independents. EV / LTM revenue 3.1x EV / LTM EBITDA 12.6x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Both parties sit in multi-basin independent exploration and production, so the combination adds contiguous scale and inventory years rather than a new capability. Consolidation of this kind is customarily argued on free cash flow per share and inventory duration per share. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The completed terms are 12.6x EV / EBITDA and 3.1x EV / Revenue. That sits above the band the 40 names with a CY2027E estimate trade in, so what buyers agreed to pay for a whole company was set well clear of where the shares change hands.

15. 15
    SECTION 05

    05

    Section divider introducing the strategic implications section.

    Section five turns to what this pricing means for how you run the business. We'll show where gas mix, asset life and margin discipline line up with the higher multiples.

    Everything on this page

    SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Gas Mix, Asset Life and Margin Discipline Line up with the Higher Multiples Where operating attention shows up in how a business is valued. 05 of 06 Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15

16. 16
    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

    What the Pricing Means for How You Run the Business

    This page sets out NeuraCap's view of the questions this pricing puts on the table for owners, boards and acquirers over the next twelve months.

    We translate the pricing pattern into three sets of questions — for owners, for boards, and for acquirers — each grounded in the analysis shown earlier in this report. These are observations, not recommendations, and they're meant to be worked through against your own operating plan. The common thread across all three is that duration of cash, not just its size, is what the market is rewarding at the top of the range.

    Everything on this page

    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS What the Pricing Means for How You Run the Business NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16 FOR OWNERS Quality Earns a Bounded Premium Here, so Earn It on Duration Across the 40 names with a CY2027E estimate the field sits inside a single band, and the upper end is held by businesses with steady cash and funding depth. The practical work is inventory runway, base decline and cost per barrel of oil equivalent rather than a louder growth story. FOR BOARDS Judge Capital Allocation on the Drilling Years It Adds Corporate combinations in this record were agreed above where the listed names trade, and the case made for them rests on free cash flow and inventory years per share. The same test applies to a drilling programme: what does this capital add behind the current activity level? FOR ACQUIRERS The Asset Market and the Corporate Market Value Differently Across the 9 transactions shown here, agreed terms run from below the listed band to well above it, spanning asset packages and whole-company combinations. Which of those two markets a position competes in changes what it is worth to the buyer on the other side of the table.

17. 17
    SECTION 06

    06

    Section divider introducing the appendix, covering the full comparables universe, methodology and sources.

    Section six carries the full universe behind every figure in this report — the comparables detail, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives.

    Everything on this page

    SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17

18. 18
    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 2)

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier

    This page lists the first group of rated public comparables on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), shaded by whether each sits above or below the 4.2x sector median.

    This page and the next carry 30 of the 40 rated names individually, shaded against the 4.2x sector median so you can see exactly where each name sits. Tickers link through to the underlying source for anyone who wants to trace a specific figure. The remaining rows and the unrated names sit in the companion workbook alongside this deck.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 2) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (4.2x); amber marks below · 40 rated companies; 8 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 30 of 40 rated names shown here; the remaining 10 rows are in the companion workbook beside this deck. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥5.4x · median 6.1x · 10 companies Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM Integrated majors' upstream segments $711B 7.1x -5% 26% 21 EQT Corporation EQT Multi-basin independent exploration and production $41.1B 6.7x -1% 66% 65 Chevron Corporation CVX Integrated majors' upstream segments $452B 6.7x -9% 32% 23 BKV Corporation BKV Multi-basin independent exploration and production $3.5B 6.2x 2% 32% 34 Antero Resources Corporation AR Multi-basin independent exploration and production $17.8B 6.1x 0% 43% 43 Range Resources Corporation RRC Multi-basin independent exploration and production $10.1B 6.1x 3% 46% 49 Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG Multi-basin independent exploration and production $72.4B 5.8x -7% 73% 66 Eni S.p.A. E Integrated majors' upstream segments $110B 5.5x -10% 21% 11 Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY Multi-basin independent exploration and production $78.1B 5.4x -9% 60% 51 Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK Multi-basin independent exploration and production $7.2B 5.4x -2% 72% 69 CORE — 3.3x–5.4x · median 4.2x · 20 companies Ovintiv Inc. OVV Multi-basin independent exploration and production $24.8B 5.4x -8% 50% 42 EOG Resources, Inc. EOG Multi-basin independent exploration and production $79.2B 5.2x -8% 58% 51 TXO Partners, L.P. TXO Multi-basin independent exploration and production $1.1B 5.1x 20% 48% 67 Ecopetrol S.A. EC Integrated majors' upstream segments $66.5B 5.0x -4% 36% 32 CNX Resources Corporation CNX Multi-basin independent exploration and production $7.2B 5.0x -9% 66% 57

19. 19
    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (2 OF 2)

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier

    This page continues the rated public comparables list on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), shaded against the 4.2x sector median.

    We continue the comparables list here, again shaded against the 4.2x sector median. Together with the prior page, this covers 30 of the 40 rated names at the individual level. The full set, including the 8 unrated names, is available in the companion workbook.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (2 OF 2) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (4.2x); amber marks below · 40 rated companies; 8 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 30 of 40 rated names shown here; the remaining 10 rows are in the companion workbook beside this deck. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 CORE — CONTINUED — 3.3x–5.4x · median 4.2x · 20 companies TotalEnergies SE TTE Integrated majors' upstream segments $238B 4.9x -6% 25% 19 W&T Offshore, Inc. WTI Multi-basin independent exploration and production $765M 4.9x -8% 29% 22 California Resources Corp CRC Multi-basin independent exploration and production $6.0B 4.5x 1% 36% 36 Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. INR Multi-basin independent exploration and production $2.5B 4.4x 15% 71% 86 BP p.l.c. BP Integrated majors' upstream segments $181B 4.3x -10% 21% 11 Kosmos Energy Ltd. KOS Multi-basin independent exploration and production $4.4B 4.2x -8% 67% 58 Permian Resources Corporation PR Multi-basin independent exploration and production $21.4B 4.2x 2% 76% 78 Expand Energy Corporation EXE Multi-basin independent exploration and production $23.6B 4.1x -4% 45% 41 HighPeak Energy, Inc. HPK Multi-basin independent exploration and production $2.0B 4.1x -15% 67% 52 APA Corporation APA Multi-basin independent exploration and production $20.3B 3.9x -10% 64% 54 Gulfport Energy Corp GPOR Multi-basin independent exploration and production $3.6B 3.8x 0% 63% 63 Murphy Oil Corporation MUR Multi-basin independent exploration and production $7.3B 3.7x -3% 63% 60 Crescent Energy Company CRGY Multi-basin independent exploration and production $9.6B 3.4x -6% 61% 56 Chord Energy Corporation CHRD Multi-basin independent exploration and production $8.9B 3.4x -12% 49% 36 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. VIST Multi-basin independent exploration and production $10.2B 3.3x 4% 73% 78 DISCOUNT — <3.3x · median 2.7x · 10 companies

20. 20
    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This page lists the first group of precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, out of 130 such transactions in a wider recorded set of 426.

    This page and the next carry 18 of the 130 disclosed-terms transactions individually, newest first, with deal values linked through to the underlying filing. Deal multiples are LTM at announcement and sit on a different basis from the CY2027E public multiples used elsewhere in this report. The remaining transactions, and those without a disclosed value or multiple, are kept in the companion workbook.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 130 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (426 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 628 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate filings collapsed); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 296 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 130 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 20 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Sep-2026 Diversified Energy Company → Birch Permian Holdings, Inc. $1.8B n/a n/a Diversified Energy Company agreed to acquire Birch Permian Holdings, Inc. at $1.8B, announced in September 2026. An operator built around mature producing assets adding Permian volumes is a change of mix rather than more of the same asset. Aug-2026 Établissements Maurel & Prom S.A. → Colombia and Ecuador oil business (unit of Colombia and Ecuador oil business) $1.3B n/a 4.3x Établissements Maurel & Prom S.A. completed the purchase of the Colombia and Ecuador oil business at $1.3B and 4.3x EV / EBITDA. That sits inside the band the listed names trade in — a producing package valued on the cash it makes today. Jul-2026 Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation → WildFire Intermediate Holdings, LLC $600M n/a n/a Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation completed the purchase of WildFire Intermediate Holdings, LLC at $600M. Adding an inventory package is the standard route to extending drilling years without a corporate merger. Apr-2026 Shell plc → ARC Resources Ltd. $16.4B n/a n/a Shell plc completed the acquisition of ARC Resources Ltd. at $16.4B. A major taking out a listed gas producer at this size fits the pattern of buying scale, acreage duration and takeaway in a single step. Feb-2026 Pecom Servicios Energía S.A.U. → Manantiales Behr area $410M n/a n/a Pecom Servicios Energía S.A.U. agreed to acquire the Manantiales Behr area at $410M, announced in February 2026. Mature producing bases move toward operators built to run late-life decline and to carry the plugging obligations attached to them. Feb-2026 Woodside Energy → Williams Companies $112B 9.4x 14.5x Woodside Energy agreed to acquire Williams Companies at $112B, announced in February 2026. A transaction at this size reshapes the acquirer's portfolio mix rather than adding a basin. Feb-2026 Devon Energy Corporation → Coterra Energy Inc. $58.0B 3.1x 12.6x Devon Energy Corporation completed its combination with Coterra Energy Inc. at $58.0B. Corporate consolidation among the larger independents is customarily argued on free cash flow and inventory years per share. Jan-2026 GeoPark Limited → Frontera Petroleum International Holdings B.V. $600M n/a n/a GeoPark Limited has a pending agreement for Frontera Petroleum International Holdings B.V. at $600M. Internationally focused independents keep buying producing positions in regions where they already operate. Dec-2025 Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. → Antero Resources Corporation $4.4B 0.9x 2.8x Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. agreed to acquire Antero Resources Corporation at $4.4B, 0.9x EV / Revenue and 2.8x EV / EBITDA, announced in December 2025. Those terms sit below the listed band, a reminder that agreed terms in this record range widely.

21. 21
    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This page continues the list of precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first.

    We continue the transaction list here, again newest first with deal values linked to the underlying filing. Together with the prior page, this covers 18 of the 130 disclosed-terms transactions at the individual level. The full recorded set, including transactions with data-quality flags, is available in the companion workbook.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 130 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (426 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 628 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate filings collapsed); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 296 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 130 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 21 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Nov-2025 CVC Capital Partners → Unilever plc (tea) n/a n/a 12.0x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Nov-2025 Lloyds Development Capital Limited → Shell Canada Limited n/a n/a 6.9x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Nov-2025 Atos SE → El Tordillo, La Tapera and Puesto Quiroga concessions n/a n/a 13.1x Nov-2025 SM Energy Company → Civitas Resources, Inc. $2.7B n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved, parent financials detached. Sep-2025 California Resources Corporation → Berry Corporation $687M 1.0x 2.6x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Aug-2025 Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. → EPIC Crude Holdings, LP $1.6B n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Aug-2025 Crescent Energy Company → Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation $9.1B n/a 2.8x Aug-2025 Crescent Energy Company → SM Energy Company n/a n/a 2.5x Aug-2025 Crescent Energy Company → Baytex Energy Corporation n/a n/a 2.8x

22. 22
    06 · METHODOLOGY

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality.

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. 22

    Everything on this page

    06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 22 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (40 of 48 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Oil and Gas Exploration and Production and it clears the coverage gate with 41 of 48 companies (85%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 41 of the 41 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 28 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 2072 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (2071) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.

23. 23

    Across 48 Names the Band Is Narrow; Duration of Cash Is Where Its Top End Sits.

    Closing slide restating that across 48 names the band is narrow and its top end is held by duration of cash.

    Across 48 names, the band is narrow, and duration of cash is where its top end sits. The companion tables carry the full universe, the exclusion ledger and the complete source index for any figure you want to trace further.

    Everything on this page

    Across 48 Names the Band Is Narrow; Duration of Cash Is Where Its Top End Sits. NeuraCap AI — Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 23

More coverage in Energy

• Bi-Weekly Update · Sep 28, 2026Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Bi-Weekly Industry Events & M&A Update — September 14–28, 2026
• Sector Report · Sep 28, 2026Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Sector Outlook — September 2026
• Sector Report · Sep 28, 2026Oil and Gas Midstream and Pipelines Sector Outlook — September 2026
• Bi-Weekly Update · Sep 28, 2026Oil and Gas Royalties and Streaming Bi-Weekly Industry Events & M&A Update — September 14–28, 2026