Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Sector Outlook — September 2026

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ENERGY › ENERGY › OIL AND GAS REFINING AND MARKETING

Refining and Marketing: Three Models, Three Price Levels

A read on how the market prices refining, fuel distribution and convenience retail across sixteen companies, and what the premium end sits alongside.

September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E)

Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice

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1. 01
   ENERGY › ENERGY › OIL AND GAS REFINING AND MARKETING

   Refining and Marketing: Three Models, Three Price Levels

   This is the cover slide introducing the deck's central finding across sixteen refining and marketing companies.

   We open with the sector's core finding: refining, fuel distribution and convenience retail price as three distinct models, not one commodity cycle. This deck walks through sixteen companies to show where each model sits and why the market pays differently for them — so a client can see, in one line, what the rest of the report proves.

   Everything on this page

   ENERGY › ENERGY › OIL AND GAS REFINING AND MARKETING Refining and Marketing: Three Models, Three Price Levels A read on how the market prices refining, fuel distribution and convenience retail across sixteen companies, and what the premium end sits alongside. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1

2. 02
   CONTENTS

   What This Report Covers

   This slide lists the report's five sections plus the appendix.

   We've built this report so the bottom line lands first — section one carries the whole story, and everything after it is supporting evidence. If a client only has five minutes, section one is where we'd point them; the rest of the deck exists to defend that view under scrutiny.

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   CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Three Business Models, Three Different Prices in Refining and Marketing 02 The Landscape Twelve of the Sixteen Names Refine and Market; Two Run Store Networks 03 Valuation & Situations The Range Is Wide at the Ends and Tight Through the Middle 04 Precedent Transactions Nine Transactions Show Where Buyers Agreed to Price Refining and Fuel Assets 05 Strategic Implications The Operating Questions This Range Puts on the Table 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2

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   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE

   Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Splits Three Ways: Merchant Refining, Fuel and Convenience, Adjacent Models

   This slide presents the report's central conclusion: the sector splits into three pricing groups by business model.

   We find that fuel and convenience networks price at 12.4x forward EBITDA, well above merchant refining's 6.4x, with the broader rated set sitting at 6.7x. That gap isn't about scale — it's about where the earnings come from: cents-per-gallon and merchandise margin versus crack-spread capture. For an owner or acquirer, the first question this page answers is which of those three earnings profiles a given business actually has.

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   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Splits Three Ways: Merchant Refining, Fuel and Convenience, Adjacent Models The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (13 of 16 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 The Store Network Names Hold the Top of the Range The two fuel and convenience store networks sit at 12.4x on CY2027E EBITDA, against 6.4x for merchant refining with branded marketing, which is 12 of the 16 companies. Their earnings come from fuel margin in cents per gallon and inside-store merchandise rather than from crack spread capture. 2 Today's Price Already Credits an Earnings Recovery The 13 names with a forward estimate sit at 6.7x on CY2027E EBITDA in the middle of the range. Because the lens is forward, that price already carries the earnings the forecasts supply; it is not a discount waiting to be collected. 3 The Higher Multiples Sit with the Slowest Revenue Declines Split at -8% revenue growth, the 7 names above the line sit at 7.0x and the 6 below sit at 5.8x. Revenue is contracting for most of the set on these forecasts, so the separation is about the slope of the decline rather than expansion. 4 Wide Reported Margins and High Multiples Sit Apart YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) reports a 38% margin and sits at 1.3x, while World Kinect Corporation (WKC) reports 1% and sits at the middle of the range. The pattern is associated with earnings mix — retail, rack and terminal cash flow against merchant crack exposure — more closely than with the reported margin line. 6.7x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 13 rated of 16 companies 10.4x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 2.2x at the discount end top quartile (n=3) against bottom quartile (n=2) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 15 Transactions with disclosed terms 73 recorded in this tier · 2 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix

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   SECTION 02

   02

   This divider introduces the section on how the three business groups earn and price differently.

   Twelve of the sixteen names refine and market fuel; two run retail store networks. The next few pages show where each group earns its money and how the market prices that difference.

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   SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Twelve of the Sixteen Names Refine and Market; Two Run Store Networks Where each of the three groups earns its money, and how the market prices the difference. 02 of 06 Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4

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   02 · MARKET MAP

   Three Quarters of the Set Refines and Markets; The Top of the Range Sits in Retail

   This slide groups the sixteen companies by business segment and shows median valuation per group.

   Three quarters of this set is built on merchant refining and marketing, and the top of the valuation range sits with the retail-weighted names. Grouping by business segment, rather than by size or geography, is what explains the spread in multiples. That's the lens we use for everything that follows.

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   02 · MARKET MAP Three Quarters of the Set Refines and Markets; The Top of the Range Sits in Retail 16 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 MERCHANT REFINING WITH BRANDED MARKETING 12 cos median 6.4x Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Phillips 66 (PSX) Valero Energy (VLO) Sunoco (SUN) HF Sinclair (DINO) PBF Energy (PBF) Delek US Holdings (DK) CVR Energy (CVI) Par Pacific (PARR) World Kinect (WKC) Star Group, L.P. (SGU) Cosan S.A. (CSAN) 12 of the 16 companies and 75% of the set: crack spread exposure, softened where branded marketing and owned logistics attach to the plant. FUEL AND CONVENIENCE STORE NETWORKS 2 cos median 12.4x Casey's General (CASY) Murphy USA (MUSA) Two names earning on cents per gallon, inside-store merchandise and route density, and they hold the top of the segment range. ADJACENT MODELS 2 cos 1.3x · 1 rated YPF Sociedad (YPF) Suburban Propane (SPH) Two names outside the refining-plus-retail pattern, with one of the two carrying a forward estimate — read them as separate stories.

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   02 · LANDSCAPE

   Three Groups, Three Ways of Earning, Three Different Prices

   This slide describes what each of the three groups does and why the market prices them differently.

   Each of the three groups earns its cash flow in a different way, and the market is pricing that difference, not just the size of the business. Understanding which group a name sits in — before looking at its multiple — is the starting point for any diligence conversation. Full company-level detail sits in the appendix for anyone who wants to check a specific name.

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   02 · LANDSCAPE Three Groups, Three Ways of Earning, Three Different Prices Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Merchant refining with branded marketing 12 75% 6.4x Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) · Phillips 66 (PSX) · +10 more The cycle sits here. Twelve of the 16 companies refine and sell through branded marketing, and 10 of them carry a forward estimate; the group's median is 6.4x on CY2027E EBITDA. Configuration depth, advantaged crude access and turnaround cadence are what separate names inside it. Fuel and convenience store networks 2 13% 12.4x Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) · Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Cents per gallon economics. Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) and Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) earn on fuel margin per gallon and inside-store merchandise, and both sit in the premium tier. Their median of 12.4x is the top of the segment range on CY2027E EBITDA. Adjacent models 2 13% 1.3x n=1 YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) · Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) Two names, one estimate. YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) and Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) sit outside the refining-plus-retail pattern, and the one of the two with a forward estimate sits at 1.3x. Treat this group as two separate stories rather than as a priced segment.

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   03

   This divider introduces the section on public market valuation across the sixteen companies.

   All sixteen companies are on the page here, and thirteen carry a forward CY2027E EBITDA estimate. The range is wide at the ends and tight through the middle — this section shows exactly where that tightening happens.

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   SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Range Is Wide at the Ends and Tight Through the Middle All 16 companies are on the page, and 13 of them carry a forward estimate on CY2027E EBITDA. 03 of 06 Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7

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   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION

   Retail-Weighted Names Hold the Top of This Range; Merchant Refiners Cluster in the Middle

   This slide ranks the thirteen rated companies by EV/EBITDA multiple against the sector median.

   Retail-weighted names hold the top of this range, merchant refiners cluster in the middle, and the sector median sits at 6.7x. The tiers here are cut at the rated set's own quartiles, so the grouping reflects where the market actually draws the lines, not an outside benchmark. That's the range we test against revenue growth and margin next.

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   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION Retail-Weighted Names Hold the Top of This Range; Merchant Refiners Cluster in the Middle EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 13 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 6.7x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (13 of 16 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 10.4x CORE · median 6.4x DISCOUNT · median 2.2x Sector median 6.7x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top sells gallons and merchandise. The three names at the top of the range are two convenience networks and a fuel distribution partnership, and their earnings lean on cents per gallon, inside-store margin and rack volume rather than on crack spread capture. The lens is forward, so a premium that survives the forecast points to durability rather than to cycle timing. The bottom carries concentration risk. PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) and YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) sit at 2.2x, the bottom of this range. In this sector the bottom of a range is usually associated with concentration — a single asset or a single region with no offset when a unit goes down — which is the first thing a buyer quantifies. The middle is barely separated. Eight of the 13 names with a forward estimate sit in the core band between the two ends, so within merchant refining the market is differentiating by very little. That puts the case for a higher multiple on evidence a buyer can underwrite: clean product yield, crude advantage and turnaround discipline.

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   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS

   The Names Whose Revenue Is Falling Least Sit at the Higher Multiples

   This slide splits the rated companies by revenue growth and margin cohort and compares median multiples.

   Names above the -8% revenue growth split price at 7.0x versus 5.8x for those below it — the market is rewarding the slope of the decline, not growth in absolute terms. We read this as an association between resilience and price, not a claim that a slower decline causes the higher multiple. Either way, it tells a buyer where the market's attention currently sits.

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   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS The Names Whose Revenue Is Falling Least Sit at the Higher Multiples Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=7; slower n=6; higher-margin n=7; lower-margin n=6). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at -8% · EBITDA-margin split at 12% Split the Set on Revenue and the Two Halves Price Apart The 7 names above -8% revenue growth sit at 7.0x on CY2027E EBITDA; the 6 below sit at 5.8x. Both halves are shrinking on the forecasts, so the gap is about the slope of the decline, not about growth. Reported Margin and the Multiple Point Different Ways Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) reports a 14% margin and sits at 5.0x, while Sunoco LP (SUN) reports 8% and sits at 8.4x. In a trough year reported margin says as much about cycle position and inventory accounting convention as about what a buyer is underwriting. Where the Earnings Come from Is the Live Variable The names carrying retail, rack and terminal cash flow sit at the top of this range, and merchant-only configurations sit through the middle and the bottom. In diligence that difference shows up as capture rate against the benchmark crack, clean product yield and how much volume sits under term supply. Compliance Cost Lands Unevenly Across Similar Plants Renewable obligation exposure is netted against blending position, and regional low-carbon programmes fragment economics by geography. Two refiners with similar Nelson complexity can therefore carry different through-cycle costs, and the multiple alone does not show it.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP

    The Higher Prices Cluster Where Revenue Is Holding Up

    This slide cross-cuts the rated companies by valuation versus the sector median and revenue growth versus the covered median.

    The higher prices cluster where revenue is holding up best against the -8% covered median split. This page characterises where each company sits; it doesn't recommend a trade. For a client weighing a specific name, this is the map to place it on before going further.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP The Higher Prices Cluster Where Revenue Is Holding Up Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (6.7x) (rows) and revenue growth vs the covered median (-8%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Priced up, Revenue Holding Above-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 5 names Phillips 66 (PSX) · Sunoco LP (SUN) · Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) · +2 more Phillips 66 (PSX), Sunoco LP (SUN), Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY), Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) and World Kinect Corporation (WKC) sit above the middle of the set on both measures — 5 of the 13 names with a forward estimate. The price already credits the forecast, so the position is defended on earnings mix and on capital return holding through a trough. Priced up, Revenue Falling Faster Above-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 2 names Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) · CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) and CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) hold an above-middle price while their revenue forecasts fall faster than the set. These are positions where configuration depth and export access carry the valuation, and where a slipped turnaround window is expensive. Priced Down, Revenue Holding Below-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 2 names YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) · Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) and Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) sit below the middle on price with revenue holding better than the set. The work is identifying what the market is discounting — concentration, balance sheet or region — and which part of it sits inside management's control. Priced Down, Revenue Falling Faster Below-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 4 names Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) · HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) · PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) · +1 more Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO), PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) and Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) sit below the middle on both measures: 4 of the 13 names with a forward estimate. The route out of this cell runs through earnings mix and cash operating expense per barrel rather than through volume.

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    03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY

    Clearing Both Bars Is Not Where the Higher Multiples Sit

    This slide plots the thirteen companies with both estimates by revenue growth against EBITDA margin.

    Clearing both the growth and margin bars is not where the higher multiples actually sit in this set. That's a useful check against instinct — the market isn't simply rewarding the strongest fundamentals on paper. We'd use this page to pressure-test any assumption that better numbers alone explain a premium multiple.

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    03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY Clearing Both Bars Is Not Where the Higher Multiples Sit Revenue growth (CY2027E, x-axis) vs EBITDA margin (CY2027E, y-axis) · 13 companies with both estimates · cuts at the covered medians (-8% growth, 12% margin) · median EV/EBITDA per quadrant · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Quadrant cuts are the covered set's medians. Quadrant medians on names with a meaningful EV/EBITDA (balanced n=2; margin-only n=5; growth-only n=5; neither n=1). YPF plotted at the chart edge. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 -15% -10% -5% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% MARGIN ONLY median 6.1x BALANCED median 4.1x NEITHER median 3.2x GROWTH ONLY median 8.4x PARR VLO CVI PBF DINO MPC DK WKC PSX YPF MUSA SUN CASY x: revenue growth (CY2027E) · y: EBITDA margin (CY2027E) HOW TO READ THIS The chart splits the 13 names with a forward estimate on the same revenue growth line used on the drivers page and on a 12% margin bar. The 5 names clearing the growth bar alone sit at 8.4x and the 5 clearing the margin bar alone sit at 6.1x. The 2 names clearing both — Phillips 66 (PSX) and YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) — sit at 4.1x, and the single name clearing neither sits at 3.2x. The balanced median rests on 2 names and is lifted by PSX at 7.0x. Rule of 40 (revenue growth + EBITDA margin ≥ 40%): 0 of 13 names clear it.

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    03 · THE AGENDA

    Four Moves That Track with Where a Refining and Marketing Business Sits in This Range

    This slide lays out four strategic moves that track with where a company sits in this valuation range.

    We've framed four moves as questions an owner or acquirer should be resolving: earnings mix, configuration depth, the renewable obligation, and capital return through the trough. These are observations grounded in the cohort data, not recommendations tied to any specific name. They're the questions worth having in the room before a transaction conversation starts.

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    03 · THE AGENDA Four Moves That Track with Where a Refining and Marketing Business Sits in This Range NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12 Shift Earnings Mix Toward Rack, Terminal and Retail Volume The names at the top of this range earn on cents per gallon, merchandise margin and route density rather than on the crack spread alone. Adding contracted volume and owned logistics around the plant changes the shape of the earnings, not only their size. What changes the answer: A rising share of gross profit from non-crack sources across two consecutive turnaround cycles. Buy Configuration Depth Rather than More Throughput Coker and hydrocracker economics and the ability to run advantaged heavy and sour barrels are what separate otherwise similar plants in diligence. A single-plant, low-complexity position carries no offset inside the system when a unit goes down. What changes the answer: Light-heavy and sweet-sour differentials widening while your capture rate stays flat. Net the Renewable Obligation Against Your Blending Position Compliance cost falls unevenly depending on where a company blends, and regional low-carbon programmes fragment the economics further. A business that internalises the obligation carries a different through-cycle cost base from one that buys credits into every mandate year. What changes the answer: A change in blending capacity, or in the regional programme a plant's barrels are sold into. Defend Capital Return Through the Trough Revenue falls for 11 of the 13 names with a forward estimate, so what distinguishes similar configurations is whether distributions and buybacks hold when cracks are thin. That is a capital allocation choice made before the trough rather than during it. What changes the answer: Free cash flow cover for distributions tested at mid-cycle margins rather than at today's cracks.

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    SECTION 04

    04

    This divider introduces the section on precedent transactions in refining and fuel assets.

    Nine transactions show where buyers agreed to price refining and fuel assets — seven announced, one pending and one terminated. The next pages walk through what those deals tell us about how the market prices this sector.

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    SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS Nine Transactions Show Where Buyers Agreed to Price Refining and Fuel Assets Of the nine transactions shown, seven are recorded as announced, one as pending and one as terminated. 04 of 06 Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES

    Nine Transactions Spanning Whole Refiners, Single Plants and Fuel Books

    This slide walks through two of the transactions with fully disclosed terms as detailed case studies.

    We've picked two transactions from the recorded set to walk through in detail, with multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed. These deal multiples sit on a different basis than the CY2027E public multiples used elsewhere in this report, so we don't claim a spread between them. The full transaction list is in the appendix for anyone who wants the complete record.

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Nine Transactions Spanning Whole Refiners, Single Plants and Fuel Books 2 of 15 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 80 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (carve out target recorded as parent; deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 58 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14 Feb-2011 $7.0B • Holly Corporation acquires Frontier Oil Corporation EV / LTM revenue 0.7x EV / LTM EBITDA 8.8x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Recorded transactions in this sector cluster in a few channels: refiners adding capacity and regional balance, fuel distributors and convenience consolidators rolling up rack positions, terminals and sites, and infrastructure capital taking the contracted logistics pieces. Establishing which channel a buyer sits in is the first step in reading the price it agreed. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Multiples across this record run from 3.6x on a single-plant refinery to 18.1x on a refining partnership, a spread wider than the forward range across the 13 names with a forward estimate. Where a transaction sits in that spread is associated with cycle position at signing as much as with the asset itself. Jan-2019 $3.9B Eni S.p.A. Eni S.p.A. takes a position in ADNOC Refining, one of the largest refining systems in this record. EV / LTM revenue n/a EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED An international operator buying into a national refining system fits the pattern where a refiner adds configuration depth and access to a different regional supply balance. The transaction suggests the value sat in the hardware and its feedstock position rather than in a marketing or retail book. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The transaction is carried at $3.9B, as recorded in the filing, with the status shown as pending. Refining capacity of this shape is normally struck on a mid-cycle earnings base, so a headline value reads against through-cycle throughput economics rather than against one year's cracks.

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    SECTION 05

    05

    This divider introduces the section on the operating questions this valuation range raises for buyers.

    Earnings mix, configuration, compliance cost and capital return are the ground buyer diligence covers in this sector. The next page turns those into direct questions for owners, buyers and boards.

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    SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS The Operating Questions This Range Puts on the Table Earnings mix, configuration, compliance cost and capital return — the ground buyer diligence covers. 05 of 06 Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

    What This Range Asks of Owners, Buyers and Boards

    This slide sets out what the valuation range asks of owners, buyers and boards respectively.

    For owners, the question is which half of the revenue line a business sits on. For buyers, it's pricing the contracts attached to the asset, not just the asset itself. For boards, it's testing the forecast behind the multiple rather than the multiple itself — because a forward lens already credits the recovery sitting in the estimates.

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS What This Range Asks of Owners, Buyers and Boards NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16 FOR OWNERS Know Which Half of the Revenue Line You Sit On The set separates on the slope of the revenue decline and on earnings mix, and the margin ranking does not track the price ranking. Work out which of your barrels and gallons a buyer would treat as annuity cash flow and which they would price as crack exposure. FOR BUYERS Price the Asset, Then Price the Contracts Attached to It Refinery transactions in this record travel with supply, offtake or terminalling agreements, and hydrocarbon inventory settles separately at market on closing. Headline multiples are not comparable across deals until those mechanics, and the turnaround position, are lined up. FOR BOARDS Test the Forecast, Not the Multiple A forward lens already credits the earnings recovery sitting in the estimates, so the debate worth having is whether mid-cycle assumptions, utilisation and turnaround scheduling support it. Where they do not, the gap shows up in capital allocation first.

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    SECTION 06

    06

    This divider introduces the appendix covering the full comparable universe, methodology and sources.

    This section carries the comparables behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. It's the reference section for anyone who wants to trace a number back to its source.

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    SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier

    This slide lists all thirteen rated companies and their EV/EBITDA multiples against the sector median, with three companies unrated.

    All thirteen rated companies sit in this table, shaded against the 6.7x sector median, alongside three names without an eligible multiple. This is the full comparable set behind every multiple quoted earlier in the deck. Tickers link through to the underlying source for anyone who wants to check a specific company.

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (6.7x); amber marks below · 13 rated companies; 3 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 13 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥7.0x · median 10.4x · 3 companies Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY Fuel and convenience store networks $24.6B 14.4x 2% 8% 10 Murphy USA Inc. MUSA Fuel and convenience store networks $12.0B 10.4x -6% 5% -1 Sunoco LP SUN Merchant refining with branded marketing $32.0B 8.4x 1% 8% 9 CORE — 5.0x–7.0x · median 6.4x · 8 companies Phillips 66 PSX Merchant refining with branded marketing $126B 7.0x -8% 12% 4 CVR Energy, Inc. CVI Merchant refining with branded marketing $6.7B 6.8x -12% 13% 1 Valero Energy Corporation VLO Merchant refining with branded marketing $124B 6.8x -13% 14% 1 World Kinect Corporation WKC Merchant refining with branded marketing $2.5B 6.7x -8% 1% -7 Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC Merchant refining with branded marketing $154B 6.1x -9% 16% 7 HF Sinclair Corporation DINO Merchant refining with branded marketing $21.4B 5.5x -10% 13% 3 Delek US Holdings, Inc. DK Merchant refining with branded marketing $7.0B 5.0x -8% 11% 3 Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. PARR Merchant refining with branded marketing $5.1B 5.0x -15% 14% -1 DISCOUNT — <5.0x · median 2.2x · 2 companies PBF Energy Inc. PBF Merchant refining with branded marketing $11.9B 3.2x -11% 11% 0 YPF Sociedad Anónima YPF Integrated refining and marketing, wellhead to rack $9.4B 1.3x -7% 38% 31

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This slide lists precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first.

    Fifteen transactions with disclosed terms sit in this tier out of seventy-three recorded, and deal values link through to the underlying filing. Multiples here are on LTM financials at announcement, so they sit on a different basis than the CY2027E public multiples used elsewhere. This is the record we'd point a client to when benchmarking a specific deal.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 15 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (73 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 80 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (carve out target recorded as parent; deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 58 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Nov-2024 Icahn Enterprises L.P. → CVR Energy, Inc. $2.8B n/a n/a Icahn Enterprises L.P. announced a transaction for CVR Energy, Inc. in November 2024 at $2.8B, as recorded in the filing. CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) sits in the core tier of this set, so the transaction touches a listed merchant refiner rather than a carve-out asset. Nov-2021 Foundation Building Materials, Inc. → Grupo Radar n/a n/a 11.7x Foundation Building Materials, Inc. announced the acquisition of Grupo Radar in November 2021 at 11.7x EBITDA. That level sits above where most of the refining names in this set are priced, which is the pattern where a distribution book changes hands rather than… Aug-2020 Superior Plus Corp. → Rymes Propane and Oil n/a n/a 8.0x Superior Plus Corp. announced the acquisition of Rymes Propane and Oil in August 2020 at 8.0x EBITDA. A delivered-fuel book trades as a customer list with trucks and tanks attached, and a multiple at that level sits alongside route density and recurring seasonal… Nov-2019 Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. → Husky Energy’s Prince George Refinery n/a n/a 3.6x Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. announced the purchase of Husky Energy’s Prince George Refinery in November 2019 at 3.6x EBITDA. Single-plant refining assets sit at the low end of this record, consistent with asset-level divestiture being the common mode… Jan-2019 SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. → CVR Refining, LP n/a n/a 18.1x SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. announced a transaction for CVR Refining, LP in January 2019 at 18.1x EBITDA, the top of the multiples recorded here. A single deal multiple is struck against where crack spreads sat at signing, so a headline at that level is associated with… Jan-2019 Eni S.p.A. → ADNOC Refining $3.9B n/a n/a Eni S.p.A. and ADNOC Refining, recorded at $3.9B in January 2019 and carried as pending. A position in a large national refining system gives an international operator configuration depth and exposure to a different regional supply balance. Jan-2019 Thoma Bravo → Schmitt Sales, Inc. n/a 7.8x n/a Thoma Bravo announced the acquisition of Schmitt Sales, Inc. in January 2019 at 7.8x revenue. Private capital in this sector has been more active in marketing, distribution and specialty products than in merchant refining, and a revenue multiple at that level points… Apr-2018 Marathon Petroleum Corporation → Andeavor $36.0B n/a n/a Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Andeavor, recorded at $36.0B in April 2018 and carried in the record as terminated. Combinations of that size are the channel through which a large refiner adds regional balance, system optimisation and export access in one step. Apr-2018 Marathon Oil Corporation → Andeavor (Tesoro Corp.) n/a n/a 12.6x Marathon Oil Corporation and Andeavor (Tesoro Corp.), announced in April 2018 at 12.6x EBITDA. Read against the middle of this set's forward range, a whole-company refining multiple at that level reflects a different cycle position from the one today's forecasts…

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This slide continues the list of precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first.

    The list continues here, covering the remainder of the fifteen disclosed-terms transactions in this tier. As before, these multiples are on LTM financials at announcement and are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis used earlier. Together with the prior page, this is the complete disclosed-terms record.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 15 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (73 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 80 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (carve out target recorded as parent; deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 58 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 20 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Sep-2013 Star Gas Partners LP → Three heating oil and propane companies (Griffith Energy Services, Inc.) n/a n/a 5.2x Feb-2011 • Holly Corporation → Frontier Oil Corporation $7.0B 0.7x 8.8x Apr-2005 Valero Energy Corporation → Premcor n/a n/a 7.6x Jan-2002 Shell Oil Company → Penzoil-Quaker State Company n/a n/a 10.3x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. May-2001 Valero Energy Corporation → Ultra Diamond Shamrock Corporation n/a n/a 4.7x Jan-2000 BP Amoco PLC → Burmah Castrol PLC n/a n/a 10.9x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved.

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    06 · METHODOLOGY

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality.

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. 21

    Everything on this page

    06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 21 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (13 of 16 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing and it clears the coverage gate with 13 of 16 companies (81%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 13 of the 13 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 10 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 729 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (728) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.

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    The Top of This Range Sits with Earnings That Lean Less on the Crack Spread.

    This is the closing slide restating that the top of this valuation range sits with earnings that lean less on the crack spread.

    The top of this range sits with earnings that lean less on the crack spread — that thread runs through every section of this report. The companion tables carry the full universe and source index for any figure a client wants to trace further.

    Everything on this page

    The Top of This Range Sits with Earnings That Lean Less on the Crack Spread. NeuraCap AI — Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 22

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