Aluminum Sector Outlook — September 2026

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MATERIALS › MATERIALS › ALUMINUM

Aluminum: The Recovery Is Showing up in Unit Economics

What forward profit multiples and the transaction record say about where value sits across upstream metal and downstream conversion.

September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E)

Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice

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1. 01
   MATERIALS › MATERIALS › ALUMINUM

   Aluminum: The Recovery Is Showing up in Unit Economics

   This is the cover slide introducing NeuraCap's September 2026 aluminum sector outlook on unit economics, priced on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E).

   We open with the headline: the aluminum recovery is showing up in unit economics, priced today on EV/EBITDA for CY2027E. Everything that follows unpacks where that improvement is landing across the sector.

   Everything on this page

   MATERIALS › MATERIALS › ALUMINUM Aluminum: The Recovery Is Showing up in Unit Economics What forward profit multiples and the transaction record say about where value sits across upstream metal and downstream conversion. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1

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   CONTENTS

   What This Report Covers

   This page lists the report's five sections plus the appendix, starting with the bottom line.

   We front-load the bottom line so a reader who only reads section one still gets the full argument. The four sections that follow build the evidence: the landscape, valuation and situations, precedent deals and strategic implications.

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   CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Aluminum Prices off Two Engines: Integrated Upstream Metal and Conversion-Led Downstream Models 02 The Landscape Integrated Metal Holds the Volume; The Conversion-Led Names Hold the Higher Multiple 03 Valuation & Situations The Spread, Not the Level, Is the Decision on CY2027E Earnings 04 Precedent Transactions What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Sits on Conversion Capacity and Cost-Curve Position 05 Strategic Implications The Higher Multiples Sit with Conversion Spread, Power Tenure and Mix 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2

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   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE

   Aluminum Prices off Two Engines: Integrated Upstream Metal and Conversion-Led Downstream Models

   This page summarizes the report's central finding: aluminum value splits between integrated upstream metal and conversion-led downstream models, priced on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E).

   We size the rated set on EV/EBITDA for CY2027E, with the sector median at 5.4x, the top of the range at 10.3x and the bottom at 4.1x. Forward pricing already credits next year's earnings, so a premium that survives it points to a market backing durability, not just a good year. The names with the highest margins are not the ones capturing the highest multiples, which tells us buyers are pricing something other than current profitability. That gap between margin and multiple is the thread we pull through the rest of this report.

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   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Aluminum Prices off Two Engines: Integrated Upstream Metal and Conversion-Led Downstream Models The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (5 of 7 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 Today's Prices Already Carry the Earnings Recovery The middle of the set prices at 5.4x forward EBITDA for CY2027E, with the top of the range at 10.3x and the bottom at 4.1x. A forward multiple already credits the forecast year, so a premium that survives it points to earnings buyers expect to hold through the cycle. 2 The Higher Margins Sit at the Bottom of the Range Alcoa Corporation (AA) at a 19% EBITDA margin and Century Aluminum Company (CENX) at 35% both price below the middle of the set, while Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) and Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) sit at the top of the range on thinner margins. Upstream margin moves with the exchange price and the regional delivered premium, and the market appears to be pricing its durability rather than its level. 3 Volume Is Not Doing the Work in the Forward Year Revenue growth in the middle of the set runs at 1% into the forward year. Century Aluminum Company (CENX) at 22% shows volume can contribute for an individual operator, but for most of the set the earnings step points to conversion margin, cost-curve position and mix among the routes available. 4 What Buyers Agreed to Pay Centres on Conversion Assets Of the 9 transactions in the record, the disclosed profit multiples cluster on rolling and conversion capacity, with Alcoa Warrick LLC at 7.3x EBITDA one read on that band. Upstream integration is still being bid for: Alcoa Corporation (AA) has a pending agreement for bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets (interest) recorded at $4.7B. 5.4x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 5 rated of 7 companies 10.3x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 4.1x at the discount end top quartile (n=2) against bottom quartile (n=2) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 18 Transactions with disclosed terms 32 recorded in this tier · 3 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix

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   SECTION 02

   02

   This is the divider introducing section two: the market map and landscape of integrated metal versus conversion-led companies.

   We move next into how this set actually earns money — integrated metal producers holding volume, conversion-led names holding the higher multiple. This section maps the group split before we get to valuation.

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   SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Integrated Metal Holds the Volume; The Conversion-Led Names Hold the Higher Multiple Two groups, two ways of earning, priced on different terms. 02 of 06 Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4

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   02 · MARKET MAP

   Most of the Set Sits in Integrated Metal; The Conversion-Led Names Price Higher

   This page groups the seven approved companies by business segment and shows the median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) for each group.

   We plot all seven companies in the approved set by segment — integrated metal versus conversion-led — and take the median forward multiple for each group. Most of the set sits in integrated metal, yet it's the conversion-led names that price higher on a group basis. That split is the first sign that the market rewards how a business earns, not just how much metal it moves. It sets up the valuation work in the next section.

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   02 · MARKET MAP Most of the Set Sits in Integrated Metal; The Conversion-Led Names Price Higher 7 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 INTEGRATED BAUXITE, ALUMINA AND PRIMARY METAL PRODUCERS 4 cos median 5.0x Alcoa (AA) Constellium SE (CSTM) Century Aluminum (CENX) Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) 4 of the 7 companies, 57% of the set: refining and smelting economics set by power cost, cost-curve position and the alumina input ratio. ADJACENT MODELS 3 cos 11.8x · 1 rated Reliance Steel & (RS) First Majestic (AG) Tredegar (TG) 3 names earning on distribution, service and other metals, where the conversion spread rather than metal length is what a buyer underwrites.

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   02 · LANDSCAPE

   Two Groups, Two Ways of Earning: Metal Length and Conversion Spread

   This page describes what each segment does and why buyers price it differently, covering metal length and conversion spread.

   We walk through what separates the two groups operationally: metal length exposure to the exchange price versus a conversion spread set by contract and mix. That distinction is what shows up later as a valuation gap. Understanding which lever a business pulls is the first question in reading its multiple.

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   02 · LANDSCAPE Two Groups, Two Ways of Earning: Metal Length and Conversion Spread Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Integrated bauxite, alumina and primary metal producers 4 57% 5.0x Alcoa Corporation (AA) · Constellium SE (CSTM) · +2 more Power cost sets the floor. Four names, all four with a CY2027E EBITDA estimate, at a middle of 5.0x. Earnings here move with the exchange price, the regional delivered premium and the alumina input ratio, so what a buyer underwrites is cost-curve position, power tenure, potline utilization and the cast house value-added mix. Adjacent models 3 43% 11.8x n=1 Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) · First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) · +1 more Conversion and service earnings. Three names, 43% of the set, of which one carries a CY2027E EBITDA estimate — Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) at 11.8x. The read-across rests on that single name, but it shows where the market is pricing steadier conversion and distribution earnings against upstream metal.

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   SECTION 03

   03

   This is the divider introducing section three: what the CY2027E earnings multiple reveals once the forecast year is already priced in.

   A forward multiple already gives credit for next year's forecast, so what we look at next is the spread that survives it. This section walks through the public market valuation, its drivers and the situations it creates across the five rated names.

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   SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Spread, Not the Level, Is the Decision on CY2027E Earnings A forward multiple already credits the forecast year, so what survives it matters. 03 of 06 Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7

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   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION

   Buyers Price Downstream Conversion at the Top of the Range and Upstream Metal at the Bottom

   This page ranks the five rated companies by EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), sorted from highest to lowest against a sector median of 5.4x.

   We rank all five rated names on the same EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) basis, with the sector median at 5.4x. Downstream conversion sits at the top of that range, and upstream metal sits at the bottom. That ranking is the clearest single view of where the market is putting its confidence today. It's the reference point for every comparison that follows.

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   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION Buyers Price Downstream Conversion at the Top of the Range and Upstream Metal at the Bottom EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 5 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 5.4x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (5 of 7 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 10.3x CORE · median 5.4x DISCOUNT · median 4.1x Sector median 5.4x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top holds 10.3x. The two names at the premium end of the 5 names with a CY2027E EBITDA estimate sit at a middle of 10.3x. Both earn on conversion spread, service and qualified product positions rather than on metal length, and because a forward multiple already credits the forecast year, that premium reads as durability rather than a growth bet. The bottom holds 4.1x. Alcoa Corporation (AA) and Century Aluminum Company (CENX) sit at a middle of 4.1x. These are integrated positions where the exchange price, the regional delivered premium and power cost swing earnings year to year, and the market is pricing that swing alongside the current margin. One name sits between them. Constellium SE (CSTM) is the single name in the middle band of the 5 names with a CY2027E EBITDA estimate. Its qualified automotive body sheet and packaging conversion work is the bridge between the two ends of the range, and it is the one company here above the middle of the set on both multiple and margin.

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   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS

   Buyers Put a Different Price on Margin than on Growth

   This page compares median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) across revenue-growth and EBITDA-margin cohorts for the rated names with estimates.

   We split the rated set at its own median for growth and for margin, then compare the multiple each cohort earns. The read is directional, an association in the data rather than a causal claim. It puts a check on assuming that the higher-margin or faster-growing business will automatically hold the richer multiple. That question is exactly what the situation map on the next page sets out to answer.

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   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS Buyers Put a Different Price on Margin than on Growth Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=0; slower n=0; higher-margin n=0; lower-margin n=0). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 Growth the Market Believes In Growth coverage is limited in this universe. Margin Quality Profitability differences compound the growth split rather than replacing it. Business Mix Segment medians differ across Integrated bauxite, alumina and primary metal producers, Adjacent models — mix, not the sector label, sets the multiple.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP

    Where Margin and Multiple Part Company Across the Five Rated Names

    This page cuts the five rated names into a two-by-two grid on EV/EBITDA versus the sector median (5.4x) and EBITDA margin versus the covered median (12%).

    We cut the five rated names on two lines — the sector median multiple of 5.4x and the covered median margin of 12% — to see where margin and multiple agree and where they part company. This is an observation of where each business currently sits, not a recommendation to buy or sell. The quadrant where multiple sits above median while margin sits below is the one worth a second look. It's the setup for the three questions we pose next.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP Where Margin and Multiple Part Company Across the Five Rated Names Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (5.4x) (rows) and EBITDA margin vs the covered median (12%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Premium Multiple, Above-Middle Margin Above-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 1 names Constellium SE (CSTM) Constellium SE (CSTM) is the single name above the middle of the set on both the CY2027E multiple and EBITDA margin. Its qualified automotive and packaging conversion work is the kind of earnings this market appears willing to price above the metal. Premium Multiple, Below-Middle Margin Above-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 2 names Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) · Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) and Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) price above the middle of the set on a margin below it. What buyers agreed to pay for rolling and service assets in the transaction record points the same way: steadiness of the conversion spread sits alongside the higher multiple, not the higher margin level. Value Multiple, Above-Middle Margin Below-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 2 names Alcoa Corporation (AA) · Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Alcoa Corporation (AA) and Century Aluminum Company (CENX) carry the higher margins in the set and the lower multiples. Upstream margin at this point in the cycle reflects metal price and regional delivered premium, and the market is discounting its durability rather than its size. Below the Middle on Both Below-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 0 names No rated names sit in this cell as of the analysis date.

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    03 · THE AGENDA

    Three Levers That Track with Where a Business Sits in This Range

    This page frames three questions an owner or acquirer should resolve, based on where a business sits in the range.

    We turn the situation map into three questions worth resolving: conversion mix, power tenure and the level of vertical integration. These are framed as questions to work through, not conclusions to accept as given. Where a business lands on each one tracks with where it sits in the valuation range we've just shown.

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    03 · THE AGENDA Three Levers That Track with Where a Business Sits in This Range NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 Shift Mix Toward Qualified Value-Added Products The names at the top of the range earn on conversion spread into qualified programmes rather than on metal length. Moving cast house and mill output toward billet, slab, plate and body sheet loosens the earnings line from the exchange price. What changes the answer: Conversion margin per pound shipped holding through a move in the exchange price. Fix Power Tenure Before the Contract Rolls Power is the dominant variable cost in smelting, and a contract nearing expiry is priced as an open question. Long-dated, low-cost and preferably hydro-based supply changes both cost-curve position and what a buyer will underwrite. What changes the answer: A power agreement or grid position extended beyond the potline rebuild cadence. Build Closed-Loop Scrap Flows Recycled and used beverage can scrap input is associated with steadier conversion earnings, because the scrap spread moves differently from prime metal. Closed-loop arrangements with canmakers and fabricators also support verified low-carbon metal for demanding customers. What changes the answer: Scrap share of melt rising with recovery yield holding. Decide Build Versus Buy on Conversion Capacity What buyers agreed to pay across this record concentrates on rolling and fabrication assets, and replacement cost per annual tonne is the floor test both sides run. Where a mill would be uneconomic to replicate at today's build cost, buying qualified capacity can be the cheaper route to the same customer position. What changes the answer: A carve-out of conversion capacity available below replacement cost per annual tonne.

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    SECTION 04

    04

    This is the divider introducing section four: precedent transactions and what buyers have agreed to pay for.

    Nine transactions with disclosed terms carry the record of what buyers have actually paid, spanning both upstream and downstream aluminum assets. This section walks through the case studies and the full list.

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    SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Sits on Conversion Capacity and Cost-Curve Position Nine transactions in the record, upstream and downstream, some announced and some completed. 04 of 06 Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES

    What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Across Nine Aluminum Transactions

    This page tells three of the eighteen disclosed-term transactions as case studies, with multiples on LTM financials at announcement.

    We walk through three case studies from the eighteen transactions with disclosed terms, including Alcoa Warrick LLC at 7.3x EBITDA on rolling and conversion capacity. Alcoa Corporation also carries a pending agreement for bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets recorded at $4.7B, showing upstream integration is still being bid for. These are LTM multiples at announcement, not on the same basis as the forward multiples we showed earlier, so we don't claim a spread between them. The full list sits in the appendix for anyone who wants to trace every deal.

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Across Nine Aluminum Transactions 3 of 18 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 52 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 14 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13 Dec-2017 $10.2B Invitalia acquires Alcoa Corporation EV / LTM revenue 0.9x EV / LTM EBITDA 3.8x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED The recurring logic across this record is a buyer adding conversion capacity, customer qualifications and scrap flow rather than metal length. Where the buyer sits downstream of the smelter, the fit is the conversion spread and the customer position that travels with the mill. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The benchmark in this record for rolling and conversion capacity is 8.8x EBITDA, set by the Global Aluminum Rolling business of Norsk Hydro ASA. That band sits above where the integrated upstream names price on CY2027E EBITDA in the ranked set. Nov-2020 $796M Kaiser Aluminum Corporation acquires Alcoa Warrick LLC EV / LTM revenue 0.6x EV / LTM EBITDA 7.3x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) was a downstream roller buying conversion capacity, packaging customers and scrap flow, and the target was Alcoa Warrick LLC, carved out by an integrated upstream producer rationalizing its portfolio. The asset carve-out structure suggests the parties were allocating the residue, potlining and legacy obligations that travel with a mill. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The transaction was recorded at $796M, 7.3x EBITDA and 0.6x revenue. The profit multiple is the relevant benchmark because metal passes through the revenue line, and it sits inside the band the other rolling assets in this record occupy. Nov-2018 $725M Howmet Aerospace Inc. Howmet Aerospace Inc. and Arconic Corporation consolidate aerospace-qualified capability. EV / LTM revenue n/a EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED The buyer sits in aerospace engineered products and the target in rolled and fabricated aluminum, so the transaction reads as bringing qualified plate and engineered product capability under one owner. Aerospace qualifications take years to earn and are sticky once held, which makes an in-place position worth buying. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The record carries the consideration at $725M, shown as recorded in the filing. Benchmark it against what buyers agreed to pay elsewhere in this record for conversion assets, at 7.2x and 6.9x EBITDA.

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    SECTION 05

    05

    This is the divider introducing section five: the operating levers associated with the higher multiples.

    The higher multiples in this set sit with conversion spread, power tenure and mix — the operating work behind standing at the top of the range. This section sets out the strategic implications for the year ahead.

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    SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS The Higher Multiples Sit with Conversion Spread, Power Tenure and Mix The operating work that is associated with standing at the top of this range. 05 of 06 Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

    The Higher Multiples Sit with Conversion Spread, Power Tenure and Mix

    This page sets out the strategic questions the data raises for owners, management teams and capital allocators over the next twelve months.

    We turn the evidence into questions for three audiences: owners weighing where the premium sits, management teams separating metal price from what they control, and capital allocators testing replacement cost. These are directional views grounded in the data shown earlier, not recommendations to transact. Each audience gets a distinct lens on the same underlying pattern. Together they form the operating agenda this report points to.

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS The Higher Multiples Sit with Conversion Spread, Power Tenure and Mix NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15 FOR OWNERS The Premium in This Set Sits with the Conversion-Led Names Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS) and Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) price at the top of the range on margins below the middle of the set. The work associated with that standing is conversion margin per pound, value-added mix and customer qualifications, rather than a higher headline margin in a strong metal year. FOR MANAGEMENT TEAMS Separate the Metal Price from What the Business Actually Controls Earnings in the 4 integrated names move with the exchange price, the regional delivered premium and power cost. Planning on mid-cycle conversion economics — potline utilization, recovery yield, scrap spread, cast house mix — keeps the operating story readable when metal moves, and that steadiness is associated with the multiples at the top of this range. FOR CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Replacement Cost Is the Floor Test on Upstream Assets Permitting for new refineries, residue storage and greenfield smelters limits the supply response, so an in-place line with a grid connection and permits can carry value the current earnings line does not show. Weigh additions of conversion capacity against what a build would cost per annual tonne, and against the obligations that travel with the asset.

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    SECTION 06

    06

    06.

    Section 06 of 06 — The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources. Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. Use this divider to reset the room before the section's pages; the progress dots show where the argument stands. 16

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    SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier

    This page lists all seven companies in the comparable set on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), with five rated and two not rated, grouped by valuation tier.

    We show all seven companies in the comparable set, five carrying an eligible EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) multiple and two not rated. Tiering runs off the sector median of 5.4x, teal above and amber below. This is the complete rated list behind every summary chart earlier in the deck.

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (5.4x); amber marks below · 5 rated companies; 2 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 5 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥8.8x · median 10.3x · 2 companies Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. RS Adjacent: multi-metal service centres and steel mill… $21.6B 11.8x -1% 11% 9 Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU Integrated bauxite, alumina and primary metal producers $3.5B 8.8x -4% 10% 5 CORE — 4.7x–8.8x · median 5.4x · 1 companies Constellium SE CSTM Integrated bauxite, alumina and primary metal producers $5.2B 5.4x 1% 12% 10 DISCOUNT — <4.7x · median 4.1x · 2 companies Alcoa Corporation AA Integrated bauxite, alumina and primary metal producers $12.6B 4.7x 2% 19% 20 Century Aluminum Company CENX Integrated bauxite, alumina and primary metal producers $4.2B 3.6x 22% 35% 50

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This page lists the precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, the first of two pages.

    This page opens the full list of eighteen transactions with disclosed terms out of thirty-two recorded, newest first. Multiples are LTM at announcement, and deal values link back to the underlying filing. It's the detail behind the case studies shown earlier in the report.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 18 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (32 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 52 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 14 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Jun-2026 Alcoa Corporation → bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets (interest) $4.7B n/a n/a Alcoa Corporation (AA) agreed in Jun-2026 to acquire bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets (interest), recorded at $4.7B and pending. Value is shown as recorded in the filing; the shape of the transaction points to securing bauxite and alumina supply behind the… Sep-2024 Saudi Arabian Mining Company → Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Company and the Ma’aden Aluminium Company $950M n/a n/a Saudi Arabian Mining Company announced in Sep-2024 an agreement for Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Company and the Ma’aden Aluminium Company, recorded at $950M. Power-advantaged regional producers taking full ownership of refining and smelting is a recurring shape in… Sep-2024 Saudi Arabian Mining Company → Ma’aden joint venture $1.2B n/a n/a The same buyer completed a transaction for the Ma’aden joint venture in Sep-2024, recorded at $1.2B. Moving from a joint venture to ownership is one of the accepted routes to fixing metal balance at the smelter level. Mar-2021 KPS Capital Partners, LP → Global Aluminum Rolling business of Norsk Hydro ASA n/a n/a 8.8x KPS Capital Partners, LP completed the purchase of the Global Aluminum Rolling business of Norsk Hydro ASA in Mar-2021 at 8.8x EBITDA. Financial sponsors concentrate at the conversion end, where metal is genuinely pass-through and the earnings line is steadier. Nov-2020 Kaiser Aluminum Corporation → Alcoa Warrick LLC $796M 0.6x 7.3x Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) completed the purchase of Alcoa Warrick LLC in Nov-2020, recorded at $796M and 0.6x revenue. The revenue multiple sits low because metal passes through the top line; the conversion spread is the part being underwritten. Nov-2019 Aluminium Konin → Gränges AB n/a n/a 6.9x Aluminium Konin announced an agreement for Gränges AB in Nov-2019 at 6.9x EBITDA. Rolled products assets in this record cluster in a band that sits below where the downstream-led public names price on CY2027E earnings today. Nov-2018 Howmet Aerospace Inc. → Arconic Corporation $725M n/a n/a Howmet Aerospace Inc. completed a transaction with Arconic Corporation in Nov-2018, recorded at $725M. Aerospace plate and engineered product positions carry customer qualifications that take years to earn, which makes them worth owning rather than building. Jul-2018 Aleris Corporation → Novelis Inc. n/a n/a 7.2x Aleris Corporation and Novelis Inc. were recorded in Jul-2018 at 7.2x EBITDA. Can sheet and automotive sheet combinations of this size attract antitrust review, which shapes who can credibly bid. Jul-2018 Hindalco / Novelis → Aleris n/a n/a 7.2x Hindalco / Novelis and Aleris are recorded in Jul-2018 on the same announced basis. Securing scrap flows, used beverage can recovery, customer qualifications and freight advantage is the recurring downstream logic across this record.

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This page continues the precedent transaction list with disclosed terms, newest first, the second of two pages.

    This page continues the same list of eighteen disclosed-term transactions, carrying the remaining entries newest first. The same LTM-at-announcement basis applies throughout. Together with the previous page, it's the complete disclosed-term record referenced across this report.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 18 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (32 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 52 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 14 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Dec-2017 Invitalia → Alcoa Corporation $10.2B 0.9x 3.8x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Jul-2017 Sapa AS → Norsk Hydro ASA n/a n/a 7.7x Oct-2014 Danaher Corporation → Constellium N.V. n/a n/a 24.2x Oct-2014 Wise Metals Groups LLC → Constellium N.V. n/a n/a 10.0x Aug-2012 Sumitomo Light Metal Industries Ltd. → Furukawa-Sky Aluminum Corp. n/a n/a 10.1x n/a n/a → Sumitomo Light Metal Industries Ltd. n/a n/a 10.1x Value shown as recorded in the filing; status defaulted announced. n/a n/a → Aluminium Konin n/a n/a 6.9x Value shown as recorded in the filing; status defaulted announced. n/a n/a → Aleris Corporation’s Duffel facility n/a n/a 7.3x Value shown as recorded in the filing; status defaulted announced. n/a n/a → Alcoa Corporation’s Warrick Rolling Mill business n/a n/a 7.3x Value shown as recorded in the filing; status defaulted announced.

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    06 · METHODOLOGY

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality.

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. 20

    Everything on this page

    06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 20 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (5 of 7 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Aluminum and it clears the coverage gate with 5 of 7 companies (71%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 5 of the 5 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 1 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 264 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (263) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.

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    Across These Five Rated Names, the Premium Sits with Conversion Earnings.

    This is the closing slide, restating that among the five rated names, the valuation premium sits with conversion earnings.

    Across these five rated names, the premium sits with conversion earnings, not with metal length. The companion tables carry the full universe, the exclusion ledger and the source index behind every figure here, so any number in this deck can be traced. We're glad to walk through where a specific company sits in this range.

    Everything on this page

    Across These Five Rated Names, the Premium Sits with Conversion Earnings. NeuraCap AI — Aluminum Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Aluminum Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 21

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