Waste and Recycling Services Sector Outlook — September 2026
Waste and Recycling Services sector outlook for owners, management teams and boards: how business mix, earnings durability and buyer fit shape valuation, benchmarked on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) across the listed peer set and precedent transactions, as of September 2026.
Key figures
- 12.8x
- Integrated Platforms Multiple EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), integrated platforms median
- 8.4x
- Adjacent Models Multiple EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), adjacent models median
- 12.0x
- Sector Median Multiple EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), all rated companies
- 17.0x
- Precedent Multiple, High End Highest disclosed precedent multiple, LTM at announcement
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1 / 22 · INDUSTRIALS › COMMERCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES › WASTE AND RECYCLING SERVICES
Executive summary
Waste and Recycling Services splits between integrated platforms, which carry a median EV/EBITDA of 12.8x, and adjacent models, at 8.4x. Faster revenue growth has not aligned with a premium in this set, and only three of eight rated names clear both growth and margin bars. Precedent transactions show disclosed multiples ranging from 7.9x to 17.0x, consistent with buyers pricing strategic fit and asset quality differently. For owners, managers and boards, the data point to durable earnings, not growth alone, as where the valuation premium sits.
Key findings
- Integrated platforms trade above adjacent models, 12.8x versus 8.4x
- Faster revenue growth alone has not aligned with a valuation premium here
- Balanced growth and margin are rare: only 3 of 8 rated names clear both bars
- Precedent deal multiples span 7.9x to 17.0x, showing varied buyer conviction
What each page shows
The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.
- 01
INDUSTRIALS › COMMERCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES › WASTE AND RECYCLING SERVICES
Cover page introducing the Waste and Recycling Services sector outlook as of September 2026.
This report shows how business mix, earnings durability and buyer fit shape value across Waste and Recycling Services. We'll walk through where the sector's valuation premium sits and what that means for owners, managers and boards.
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INDUSTRIALS › COMMERCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES › WASTE AND RECYCLING SERVICES Waste and Recycling: The Premium Sits with Durability This report shows how business mix, earnings durability and buyer fit shape value across the sector. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1
- 02CONTENTS
What This Report Covers
Contents page listing the report's five numbered sections plus the appendix.
We've structured this report so the bottom line comes first: a reader who stops after section one still leaves with the whole story. From there we move through the competitive landscape, valuation and situations, precedent transactions, and strategic implications. So however much time a client has, the core answer is always on the first page.
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CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Integrated Platforms Sit at the Higher End of the Valuation Range 02 The Landscape Integrated Platforms Dominate the Listed Field 03 Valuation & Situations The Premium Sits with Durable Earnings 04 Precedent Transactions Buyer Conviction Creates a Wide Pricing Range 05 Strategic Implications Strengthen the Earnings Buyers Can Underwrite 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2
- 0301 · THE BOTTOM LINE
Waste and Recycling Services Splits Between Integrated Platforms and Adjacent Models
Summarizes the report's core finding that the sector splits between integrated platforms and adjacent models.
Integrated platforms carry a median EV/EBITDA of 12.8x against 8.4x for adjacent models, a gap consistent with the value the market places on integrated collection, transfer and disposal economics. Faster-growing names have not captured the premium here: the group above 5% growth sits at 11.6x, which puts the focus on durability rather than growth alone. Only three of eight names clear both growth and margin bars, and that balanced group sits at 11.2x, showing how uncommon well-rounded economics are in this set. Precedent transactions span 7.9x to 17.0x, telling us buyers price strategic fit and asset quality very differently. So the bottom line for any owner or acquirer here is that durability, not growth, is what the market is paying up for.
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01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Waste and Recycling Services Splits Between Integrated Platforms and Adjacent Models The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (8 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 Integrated Platforms Hold the Higher Ground The six diversified platforms with estimates sit at 12.8x, against 8.4x for the two adjacent models. The difference is consistent with the value placed on integrated collection, transfer and post-collection economics. 2 The Premium Does Not Sit with the Faster-Growing Names Across the eight names with a forward estimate, the four above 5% growth sit at 11.6x. A forward multiple already credits forecast growth, so the lower valuation alongside faster growth puts the focus on durability. 3 Balanced Growth and Margin Remain Uncommon Only 3 of the 8 names clearing both operating bars sit at 11.2x. Route density, internalization and disposal mix can matter more than clearing two headline measures. 4 Precedent Transactions Span a Wide Price Range Disclosed precedent transaction multiples span 7.9x to 17.0x. That range suggests buyers distinguish sharply among strategic fit, regulated capacity and earnings quality. 12.0x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 8 rated of 9 companies 13.7x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 8.4x at the discount end top quartile (n=2) against bottom quartile (n=2) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 39 Transactions with disclosed terms 72 recorded in this tier · 3 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix
- 04SECTION 02
02
Divider introducing Section 02 on how integrated platforms dominate the listed field.
Integrated platforms dominate the listed field, while adjacent models carry different demand, regulatory and earnings exposure. We'll map the sector next, before turning to valuation.
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SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Integrated Platforms Dominate the Listed Field Adjacent models bring different demand, regulation and earnings exposure. 02 of 06 Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4
- 0502 · MARKET MAP
Integrated Waste Platforms Occupy Most of the Listed Field
Groups nine approved companies by business segment and shows median EV/EBITDA per group.
We group the sector's approved companies by business segment to see where the listed field actually sits. Integrated platforms make up most of the group and carry the higher median multiple, while adjacent models make up a smaller share with a materially lower median. This mapping matters because it shows valuation follows business mix before any single-company story does. So when we assess an individual name, segment placement is the first filter, not the last.
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02 · MARKET MAP Integrated Waste Platforms Occupy Most of the Listed Field 9 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 DIVERSIFIED ENVIRONMENTAL AND WASTE SERVICES PLATFORMS 7 cos median 12.8x Waste Management (WM) Republic Services (RSG) Waste Connections (WCN) GFL Environmental (GFL) Clean Harbors (CLH) Casella Waste (CWST) Perma-Fix (PESI) These businesses combine collection, transfer and post-collection exposure, giving them more levers over internalization and unit economics. ADJACENT MODELS 2 cos median 8.4x WaterBridge (WBI) Ecovyst (ECVT) These businesses face different demand cycles, regulatory structures and capital needs from integrated waste platforms.
- 0602 · LANDSCAPE
Business Mix Separates the Sector Before Valuation Does
Presents a segment-level view of the approved universe with EV/EBITDA medians and business descriptions on rated names.
This page lays out what each segment does and why it matters, alongside its EV/EBITDA median on rated names. The pattern is consistent with the market map: business mix separates the sector well before individual valuation differences show up. Full company-level detail sits in the appendix and companion tables for anyone who wants to go deeper. So segment identity is a useful first read on any name before comparing individual multiples.
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02 · LANDSCAPE Business Mix Separates the Sector Before Valuation Does Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Diversified environmental and waste services platforms 7 78% 12.8x Waste Management, Inc. (WM) · Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) · +5 more Integration broadens the levers. Collection density, transfer infrastructure and owned disposal can support internalization, core price and more resilient earnings. Adjacent models 2 22% 8.4x WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC (WBI) · Ecovyst Inc. (ECVT) Specialization changes the risk. Energy waste, water infrastructure and catalyst recycling bring distinct volume, permit and capital-allocation considerations.
- 07SECTION 03
03
Divider introducing Section 03 on how the valuation premium sits with durable earnings.
Forward valuation separates the ends of the peer set despite mixed growth. We'll unpack why durability, not growth, appears to carry the premium.
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SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Premium Sits with Durable Earnings Forward valuation separates the ends of the peer set despite mixed growth. 03 of 06 Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7
- 0803 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION
Durable Earnings Separate the Two Ends of the Peer Set
Ranks all eight rated companies by EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) against a sector median of 12.0x.
Sorting the rated companies by EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) puts the sector median at 12.0x and shows a wide spread around it. The tier zones split the rated set at its own quartiles, giving a clean read on who sits above and below the sector's center of gravity. This ranking is the backbone for every driver analysis that follows in this section. So before asking why a company trades where it does, we first need to know exactly where it sits today.
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03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION Durable Earnings Separate the Two Ends of the Peer Set EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 8 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 12.0x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (8 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 13.7x CORE · median 12.0x DISCOUNT · median 8.4x Sector median 12.0x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top holds durability. The premium end sits at 13.7x, even though its members do not share one growth or margin profile. The bottom carries complexity. The discount end sits at 8.4x and contains adjacent models with different demand and capital frameworks. Forward value tests resilience. Because the multiple already reflects forecast earnings, the remaining spread is associated with confidence in earnings quality and persistence.
- 0903 · VALUATION DRIVERS
The Higher Multiple Does Not Sit with Profitability Alone
Compares median EV/EBITDA by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort among rated names with estimates.
Splitting the rated set at its own median growth and margin levels, the higher multiple does not track with growth alone; this is a NeuraCap read on association, not causation. Each cohort carries a like-for-like comparison on the same valuation basis. This tells us that whatever is driving the premium in this sector, it isn't simply faster top-line growth. So we need to look at where growth and margin combine, which is exactly what the next page does.
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03 · VALUATION DRIVERS The Higher Multiple Does Not Sit with Profitability Alone Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=4; slower n=4; higher-margin n=4; lower-margin n=4). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at 5% · EBITDA-margin split at 32% Margin Needs an Operating Foundation Among the eight names with a forward estimate, the single margin-only name sits at 13.5x, while the three names clearing both bars sit at 11.2x. The small bases make this directional rather than conclusive. Growth Carries Mixed Valuation The four names above the 5% growth split sit at 11.6x, compared with 12.8x for the four at or below it. Faster growth is associated with a lower forward multiple in this set. Unit Economics Sharpen the Distinction Core price, route density, internalization and disposal mix provide the operating test behind reported growth and margin.
- 1003 · SITUATION MAP
Where a Company Sits on Growth and Margin Points to Its Next Operating Priority
Places each company on a grid cut by the sector median multiple and the covered median revenue growth to characterize its situation.
We cut the rated set on EV/EBITDA versus the 12.0x sector median and on revenue growth versus the 5% covered median, giving distinct situations rather than a single ranking. These boundaries are NeuraCap's own cohort medians, and the read is directional, not a security recommendation. Placing a company in this grid clarifies what kind of story the market is already pricing into it. So the next question for any name here is not whether it's cheap or expensive, but which situation it's actually in.
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03 · SITUATION MAP Where a Company Sits on Growth and Margin Points to Its Next Operating Priority Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (12.0x) (rows) and revenue growth vs the covered median (5%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Premium with Growth Above-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 1 names Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) combines above-middle growth with an above-middle multiple. The priority is to protect the durability already reflected in valuation. Premium with Slower Growth Above-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 3 names Waste Management, Inc. (WM) · Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) · Clean Harbors, Inc. (CLH) Waste Management, Inc. (WM), Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) and Clean Harbors, Inc. (CLH) hold above-middle valuations alongside below-middle growth. Their position puts emphasis on earnings resilience, pricing and mix. Growth Awaiting Recognition Below-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 3 names GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) · Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) · WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC (WBI) GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL), Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) and WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC (WBI) pair above-middle growth with below-middle valuations. The operating question is whether revenue quality and margins can become more durable. Rebuild the Earnings Case Below-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 1 names Ecovyst Inc. (ECVT) Ecovyst Inc. (ECVT) sits below the middle on both measures. The agenda starts with revenue mix, cost structure and where capital can earn a better return.
- 1103 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY
Clearing Both Operating Bars Does Not Guarantee a Premium
Plots revenue growth against EBITDA margin for eight companies and shows median EV/EBITDA by quadrant.
Cutting the covered set at 5% growth and 32% margin, we find that clearing both operating bars does not guarantee the top valuation quadrant. Few names sit in the balanced quadrant, and the quadrant medians confirm growth and margin together don't automatically translate into the highest multiple. This reinforces the driver read from the previous page: durability and business mix appear to matter more than any single operating measure. So we treat quadrant position as a starting point for diligence, not a valuation verdict on its own.
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03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY Clearing Both Operating Bars Does Not Guarantee a Premium Revenue growth (CY2027E, x-axis) vs EBITDA margin (CY2027E, y-axis) · 8 companies with both estimates · cuts at the covered medians (5% growth, 32% margin) · median EV/EBITDA per quadrant · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Quadrant cuts are the covered set's medians. Quadrant medians on names with a meaningful EV/EBITDA (balanced n=3; margin-only n=1; growth-only n=1; neither n=3). Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 5% 10% 15% 20% 20% 30% 40% 50% MARGIN ONLY median 13.5x BALANCED median 11.2x NEITHER median 12.1x GROWTH ONLY median 12.0x ECVT CLH RSG WM WCN CWST GFL WBI x: revenue growth (CY2027E) · y: EBITDA margin (CY2027E) HOW TO READ THIS The chart compares revenue growth and EBITDA margin for the eight names with a forward estimate. Three clear both bars, while one clears margin alone and one clears growth alone. The margin bar is 32%. The remaining three clear neither bar, reinforcing that valuation also reflects mix, durability and business model. Rule of 40 (revenue growth + EBITDA margin ≥ 40%): 1 of 8 names clear it (WBI).
- 1203 · THE AGENDA
Durable Unit Economics Sit at the Centre of the Options Ahead
Frames durable unit economics as the central question for owners and acquirers evaluating options ahead.
This page turns the data into questions an owner or acquirer should be asking, grounded in the cohort evidence shown earlier. It's a NeuraCap advisory view, not investment advice, and it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Durable unit economics sit at the centre of every option we've laid out. So the practical task ahead is testing which levers actually strengthen that durability.
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03 · THE AGENDA Durable Unit Economics Sit at the Centre of the Options Ahead NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12 Raise Internalization Where Adjacency Supports It Direct capital toward collection, transfer or disposal assets that improve route economics and reduce dependence on third-party capacity. What changes the answer: The answer changes when local density, permit exposure or integration cost weakens the expected unit economics. Protect Price Through Contract Structure Use core price, escalators and surcharge mechanics to defend earnings through changes in labor, fuel and disposal cost. What changes the answer: The answer changes when churn or contract renewal pressure begins to offset realized price. Choose Build Versus Buy by Market Compare organic route development with tuck-ins where density, transfer access and owned disposal can improve economics. What changes the answer: The answer changes when transaction pricing moves ahead of achievable integration benefits.
- 13SECTION 04
04
Divider introducing Section 04 on precedent transactions and the wide pricing range buyer conviction creates.
Buyer conviction creates a wide pricing range across the transaction record. Strategic fit and asset mix matter as much as headline growth or margin.
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SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS Buyer Conviction Creates a Wide Pricing Range Strategic fit and asset mix matter across the transaction record. 04 of 06 Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13
- 1404 · DEAL CASE STUDIES
Precedent Transactions Pair Strategic Fit with Very Different Prices
Tells three of 39 disclosed-terms precedent transactions as case studies on strategic fit and pricing.
We walk through a handful of the disclosed-terms transactions as case studies, each priced on LTM financials at announcement. These deal multiples aren't directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis, and we don't claim a spread between the two. What comes through instead is how differently buyers priced similar-looking assets, which is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. So strategic fit, not just segment or size, explains much of the pricing variation in this market.
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04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Precedent Transactions Pair Strategic Fit with Very Different Prices 3 of 39 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 73 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; duplicate precedent id; no evidence record); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 33 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14 Jun-2024 $7.2B Waste Management, Inc. acquires Stericycle, Inc. EV / LTM revenue 2.7x EV / LTM EBITDA 17.0x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED The transaction suggests the buyer valued service breadth, regulated operations and the opportunity to add capabilities alongside its existing network. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The target was valued at 2.7x revenue and 17.0x EBITDA. The EBITDA multiple sits above several other disclosed transactions in the set. Jun-2011 $206M Clean Harbors, Inc. acquires Peak Energy Services Ltd. EV / LTM revenue 0.7x EV / LTM EBITDA 8.8x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The filing records $206M of enterprise value, struck at 0.7x LTM revenue. May-2019 $625M Calrissian Holdings, LLC acquires CEHI Acquisition Corporation EV / LTM revenue n/a EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Calrissian Holdings, LLC moved for CEHI Acquisition Corporation in May-2019; the record shows it as announced. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The filing records $625M of enterprise value.
- 15SECTION 05
05
Divider introducing Section 05 on strengthening the earnings buyers can underwrite.
The path forward is strengthening the earnings buyers can underwrite. We focus this section on revenue quality, internalization and cost resilience.
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SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Strengthen the Earnings Buyers Can Underwrite Focus the plan on revenue quality, internalization and cost resilience. 05 of 06 Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15
- 1605 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Durable Earnings Are Where the Valuation Premium Sits
Lays out NeuraCap's view on where the valuation premium sits and the questions this raises for the next twelve months.
Durable earnings are where the valuation premium sits in this dataset, and this page turns that into the questions worth resolving over the next twelve months. These are NeuraCap observations grounded in the analysis shown earlier, not recommendations on any specific security. For owners that means prioritizing pricing retention and internalization; for management, testing margin through a slower year; for boards, weighing build versus buy by strategic fit. So the deck closes by pointing at where the real work sits, not just where the multiple sits.
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05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Durable Earnings Are Where the Valuation Premium Sits NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16 FOR OWNERS Strengthen Revenue Quality and Mix Prioritize pricing retention, contractual escalators, route density and internalization where those moves improve recurring unit economics. FOR MANAGEMENT Test Margin Through a Slow Year Pressure-test labor, fuel, disposal and commodity exposure before committing capital to growth that may not improve earnings durability. FOR BOARDS Set Capital Against Strategic Fit Compare build-versus-buy choices by market adjacency, permit exposure, integration requirements and the quality of earnings added.
- 17SECTION 06
06
Divider introducing the appendix covering the full comparable universe, methodology and sources.
Section six carries the full universe, the methodology and where every underlying disclosure lives. Every figure in the body of this report traces back to a record here.
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SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17
- 1806 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)
Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier
Lists all eight rated companies' EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) grouped by valuation tier against the 12.0x sector median.
This table carries every rated company behind the charts in the body of the report, shaded above or below the 12.0x sector median. One additional company in the universe carries no eligible multiple and is listed separately in the companion workbook. Tickers link straight to the underlying source, so every figure here is traceable. So this page is the full backup for any multiple quoted earlier in the deck.
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06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (12.0x); amber marks below · 8 rated companies; 1 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 8 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥13.5x · median 13.7x · 2 companies Waste Connections, Inc. WCN Diversified environmental and waste services platforms $49.0B 13.7x 6% 33% 39 Clean Harbors, Inc. CLH Diversified environmental and waste services platforms $18.9B 13.6x 4% 20% 25 CORE — 11.1x–13.5x · median 12.0x · 4 companies Republic Services, Inc. RSG Diversified environmental and waste services platforms $79.5B 13.5x 5% 33% 37 Waste Management, Inc. WM Diversified environmental and waste services platforms $106B 12.1x 5% 32% 37 Casella Waste Systems, Inc. CWST Diversified environmental and waste services platforms $6.3B 12.0x 7% 23% 31 GFL Environmental Inc. GFL Diversified environmental and waste services platforms $21.0B 11.2x 7% 32% 40 DISCOUNT — <11.1x · median 8.4x · 2 companies WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC WBI Energy waste and oilfield water infrastructure $6.2B 10.7x 21% 53% 74 Ecovyst Inc. ECVT Sulfuric acid regeneration and spent catalyst recycling $1.4B 6.1x 2% 21% 23
- 1906 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
Lists precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, the first of two pages.
This page shows the first set of disclosed-terms transactions, newest first, with deal values linked to the underlying filing. A number of records carry data-quality flags such as unresolved deal-value units or duplicate identifiers, and those are shown exactly as recorded. Transactions without a disclosed value or multiple are held in the companion workbook rather than shown here. So this list is the primary evidence behind the case studies and pricing range discussed earlier.
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06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 39 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (72 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 73 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; duplicate precedent id; no evidence record); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 33 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 39 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Jan-2025 n/a → Environmental Services Business $8.0B n/a n/a The transaction shows meaningful capital available for an environmental services business with operating scale. Jan-2025 Apollo Global Management Inc. / BC Partners → GFL Environmental (Environmental Services Business) n/a n/a 15.2x The announced transaction suggests long-duration investors will pursue established environmental services operations. Jun-2024 Waste Management, Inc. → Stericycle, Inc. $7.2B 2.7x 17.0x The transaction suggests an established operator saw value in adding an adjacent regulated service platform. Feb-2024 Clean Harbors, Inc. → HEPACO n/a n/a 11.1x The announced transaction shows strategic interest in extending hazardous and emergency-response capabilities. Jul-2023 US Ecology → NRC Group n/a n/a 11.0x The transaction indicates continued strategic interest in regulated environmental service capabilities. Jul-2023 J.F. Lehman & Company → Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc. n/a n/a 7.9x The announced transaction suggests a focused environmental services platform can attract financial sponsorship. Apr-2023 Casella Waste Systems, Inc. → GFL Environmental assets (Waste Industries Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania) n/a n/a 12.2x The asset transaction reflects the appeal of routes and operations that can fit an existing regional network. Feb-2023 GFL Environmental Inc. → Vertex Energy’s Used Motor Oil Collection & Refining Business n/a 3.8x 3.6x The transaction suggests collection and refining capabilities can extend an environmental services network. Aug-2021 Clean Harbors, Inc. → HydroChemPSC n/a n/a 10.9x The announced transaction indicates strategic demand for capabilities adjacent to hazardous and industrial waste.
- 2006 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
Continues the list of precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first.
This second page completes the disclosed-terms transactions, again newest first and linked to the underlying filing. The same data-quality flags and exclusions from the previous page apply here. Together, both pages give readers the complete disclosed record behind the deal commentary earlier in this report. So any transaction referenced in the body can be traced back to its exact entry here.
Everything on this page
06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 39 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (72 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 73 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; duplicate precedent id; no evidence record); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 33 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 39 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 20 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Jul-2021 EQT Infrastructure (EQT Infrastructure V) → Covanta Holding Corporation n/a n/a 13.1x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Mar-2021 GFL Environmental Inc. → Terrapure Environmental Ltd. n/a n/a 9.5x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Mar-2021 Veritas Capital & Evergreen Coast Capital Corporation → Felix Water, LLC n/a n/a 17.5x Mar-2021 SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. → Tervita Corporation n/a 0.9x n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Oct-2020 Blackbuck Resources LLC → Whites City Water Infrastructure (Cimarex Energy Co.) n/a 0.7x 8.8x Oct-2019 InstarAGF Asset Management Inc. → Oilfield Water Logistics, LLC (NGP Energy Capital Management, LLC) n/a 0.7x 8.8x Jun-2019 US Ecology, Inc. → NRC Group Holding Corp. n/a n/a 10.6x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. May-2019 Calrissian Holdings, LLC → CEHI Acquisition Corporation $625M n/a n/a May-2019 Harsco Corporation → Clean Earth Inc. n/a n/a 9.6x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved.
- 2106 · METHODOLOGY
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality
Explains the sources, assumptions and data-quality treatment underlying the report.
Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from, and where it doesn't, this page names the source and the basis it was read on. This is where we document what was excluded and why, so nothing in the body is unaccounted for. So a client can trace any number in this deck back to its origin.
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06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 21 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (8 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Waste and Recycling Services and it clears the coverage gate with 8 of 9 companies (89%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 8 of the 8 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 6 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 423 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (422) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.
- 22In This Set, Durable Earnings Sit Closer to the Premium End.
NeuraCap AI — Waste and Recycling Services Coverage
Closing page restating that durable earnings sit closer to the premium end in this sector.
In this set, durable earnings sit closer to the premium end. The companion tables carry the full universe, the exclusion ledger and the complete source index for any figure a reader wants to trace further.
Everything on this page
In This Set, Durable Earnings Sit Closer to the Premium End. NeuraCap AI — Waste and Recycling Services Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Waste and Recycling Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 22
Sources and methodology
This report covers Waste and Recycling Services (Industrials › Commercial and Professional Services › Waste and Recycling Services) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 9 listed companies whose core business is Waste and Recycling Services according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Clean Harbors, Inc. (CLH), Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST), Ecovyst Inc. (ECVT), GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL), Perma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc. (PESI), Republic Services, Inc. (RSG), WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC (WBI), Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN), Waste Management, Inc. (WM). The market map groups them by business vertical — Diversified environmental and waste services platforms: 7 companies (WM, RSG, WCN, GFL, CLH, CWST, PESI); Adjacent models: 2 companies (WBI, ECVT). 8 of the 9 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
Scope and company universe
This report covers Waste and Recycling Services (Industrials › Commercial and Professional Services › Waste and Recycling Services) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 9 listed companies whose core business is Waste and Recycling Services according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Clean Harbors, Inc. (CLH), Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST), Ecovyst Inc. (ECVT), GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL), Perma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc. (PESI), Republic Services, Inc. (RSG), WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC (WBI), Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN), Waste Management, Inc. (WM). The market map groups them by business vertical — Diversified environmental and waste services platforms: 7 companies (WM, RSG, WCN, GFL, CLH, CWST, PESI); Adjacent models: 2 companies (WBI, ECVT). 8 of the 9 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
What was excluded and why
6 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (6 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: ECVT — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · PESI — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · PESI — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · PESI — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · WBI — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · WBI — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)
Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen
Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (8 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Waste and Recycling Services and it clears the coverage gate with 8 of 9 companies (89%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 8 of the 8 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 8 of 9 companies; EV / rEVenue: 9 of 9 companies; P/E: 8 of 9 companies.
How the multiples and statistics are computed
Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥13.5x, Core 11.1x–13.5x, Discount <11.1x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 12.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) (8 rated companies) · 13.7x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=2) · 12.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Core tier (n=4) · 8.4x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=2) · 11.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth ≥ 5% (n=4) · 12.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth < 5% (n=4) · 12.3x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin ≥ 32% (n=4) · 12.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin < 32% (n=4) · 37% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=8) · 11.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within balanced quadrant (n=3) · 13.5x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within marginOnly quadrant (n=1) · 12.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within growthOnly quadrant (n=1) · 12.1x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within neither quadrant (n=3)
Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why
The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Waste and Recycling Services recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 72 transactions were recorded for this industry; 39 are shown. 33 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 31 × deal value unit unresolved; 36 × no evidence record; 6 × duplicate precedent id. Case studies lead with the 3 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.
Sources
Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 28, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 427 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.
Interpretation and important notice
Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.
This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.
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