NEURACAP
Sector ReportSep 28, 2026 · 21 pages · Free to read

Security and Monitoring Services Sector Outlook — September 2026

This sector outlook maps the Security and Monitoring Services peer group and precedent transactions, showing how business model, growth and margin separate valuation outcomes. It is built for management teams, owners and acquirers assessing where their business sits on the sector's valuation curve.

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Key figures

21.5x
Premium-tier EV/EBITDA
CY2027E, premium end of rated peer group
5.5x
Discount-tier EV/EBITDA
CY2027E, discount end of rated peer group
9.4x
Sector median EV/EBITDA
CY2027E, all 6 rated companies
44%
Adjacent model share of peer group
Recurring or technology-led companies

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INDUSTRIALS › COMMERCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES › SECURITY AND MONITORING SERVICES

Security and Monitoring: Two Valuation Tracks

The report shows how business model, growth and earnings quality separate listed peers and precedent transactions.

September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E)

Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice

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Executive summary

The Security and Monitoring Services sector splits between physical, labour-led services and adjacent recurring or technology-led models, with the two ends of the peer group priced very differently on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E). Faster-growing rated names hold a higher forward multiple than slower-growing peers, and the precedent transaction record shows buyers paying for monitoring accounts, service density and technology, not scale alone. Growth and business-model differentiation, not segment membership on its own, appear to be the clearest levers behind valuation in this sample.

Key findings

  • Recurring and technology-led models trade at a valuation premium to physical services
  • Faster-growing rated names hold a higher forward EV/EBITDA multiple
  • Deal activity spans accounts, physical services, cash logistics and technology
  • The premium and discount ends of the peer group differ sharply in forward valuation

What each page shows

The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.

  1. 01

    INDUSTRIALS › COMMERCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES › SECURITY AND MONITORING SERVICES

    This is the cover slide introducing the Security and Monitoring Services sector outlook as of September 28, 2026, on an EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) valuation basis.

    We open with the same divide that runs through this whole report: physical security services provide scale, while recurring monitoring and technology-led models tell a different valuation story. Everything that follows uses EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) as our primary lens, as of September 28, 2026, so you can see exactly where the market is paying for durability and where it isn't yet.

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    INDUSTRIALS › COMMERCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES › SECURITY AND MONITORING SERVICES Security and Monitoring: Two Valuation Tracks The report shows how business model, growth and earnings quality separate listed peers and precedent transactions. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1

  2. 02
    CONTENTS

    What This Report Covers

    This slide lists the report's five numbered sections plus the appendix.

    We've organized this report so the bottom line comes first — a reader who stops after section one still leaves with the full story. From there we build out the market map, valuation drivers, precedent deals and strategic implications, so you can go as deep as you need.

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    CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Security and Monitoring Rewards Recurring Platforms Differently from Physical Services 02 The Landscape Recurring Platforms Sit Apart from Labour- and Asset-Led Services 03 Valuation & Situations The Premium End Asks for Durable Growth Beyond the Forecast 04 Precedent Transactions Precedent Transactions Show Buyers Backing Several Routes to Scale 05 Strategic Implications Value Strengthens When Operating Priorities Match the Business Model 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2

  3. 03
    01 · THE BOTTOM LINE

    Security and Monitoring Services Splits Between Physical Services and Adjacent Recurring or Technology-Led Models

    This slide states the report's core finding that the sector splits between physical services and adjacent recurring or technology-led models.

    We see the peer group split unevenly: adjacent recurring and technology-led models make up 44% of names, while physical and corporate security services make up 56%. Valuation reflects that split sharply — the premium end trades at 21.5x EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) versus 5.5x at the discount end, and among rated names, the three growing faster than 5% sit at 9.8x against 6.6x for the rest. The deal record backs this pattern too: ADT Inc. [ADT] paired with Defender Holdings, Inc. in a $381M transaction that speaks to the strategic value of adding security scale. So what: growth and differentiated business models earn the premium in this sector, and it pays to know which side of that line a business sits on.

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    01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Security and Monitoring Services Splits Between Physical Services and Adjacent Recurring or Technology-Led Models The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (6 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 The Smaller Group Holds More Differentiated Models Adjacent models represent 44% of the peer group, while corporate and physical security services represent 56%. Their mix includes recurring software, connectivity, devices and aerial surveillance alongside labour- and asset-led services. 2 The Two Ends Carry Very Different Expectations The premium end carries CY2027E EV / EBITDA of 21.5x, against 5.5x at the discount end. Because the measure is forward, the higher level already credits forecast earnings and points to an expectation of durability. 3 Faster Growth Sits with the Higher Forward Valuation Across the six names with CY2027E EV / EBITDA estimates, the three above 5% growth sit at 9.8x versus 6.6x for the other three. The small base supports a directional comparison rather than a broad market rule. 4 Buyer Interest Extends Beyond One Operating Model The transaction record spans monitoring accounts, physical security, cash operations and surveillance technology. ADT Inc. [ADT] paired with Defender Holdings, Inc. in a $381M transaction, illustrating the strategic value of adding security scale. 9.4x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 6 rated of 9 companies 21.5x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 5.5x at the discount end top quartile (n=2) against bottom quartile (n=2) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 13 Transactions with disclosed terms 39 recorded in this tier · 1 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix

  4. 04
    SECTION 02

    02

    This is a divider introducing Section 02 on recurring platforms versus labour- and asset-led services.

    Before the numbers, it's worth resetting on how different this sector's business models really are — recurring platforms, physical services and technology-led offerings each carry distinct revenue models, operating risks and buyer groups. Keeping that in mind is what makes the valuation gap ahead make sense.

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    SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Recurring Platforms Sit Apart from Labour- and Asset-Led Services The sector spans different revenue models, operating risks and buyer groups. 02 of 06 Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4

  5. 05
    02 · MARKET MAP

    The Money Sits Across Two Broad Models with Different Operating Levers

    This slide groups the nine approved companies by business segment and shows median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) per group.

    We group all nine approved companies by business segment to show where the money actually sits. Each group carries its own median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) as of September 28, 2026, giving a clean read on how the market prices each operating lever. So what: this segment view is the foundation for every valuation conversation that follows in this report.

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    02 · MARKET MAP The Money Sits Across Two Broad Models with Different Operating Levers 9 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 CORPORATE AND PHYSICAL SECURITY SERVICES 5 cos median 6.6x ADT The Brink's (BCO) Napco Security (NSSC) Bridger (BAER) SU Group (SUGP) Contract density, labour execution, route economics and customer retention shape the earnings case. ADJACENT MODELS 4 cos median 11.6x Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) Arlo Technologies (ARLO) SKYX Platforms (SKYX) EHang Holdings (EH) Recurring software, connectivity, devices and aerial surveillance offer different routes to growth and operating leverage.

  6. 06
    02 · LANDSCAPE

    Physical Services Provide Scale While Adjacent Models Broaden the Value Story

    This slide describes what each segment does and why it matters to valuation, based on the approved peer universe.

    Physical services bring scale to the sector, while adjacent models — recurring software, connectivity, devices and aerial surveillance — broaden the value story investors are willing to pay for. We walk through what each group does and why it matters, using EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names only. So what: understanding the operating story behind each segment is what lets you read the valuation gap correctly rather than as noise.

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    02 · LANDSCAPE Physical Services Provide Scale While Adjacent Models Broaden the Value Story Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Corporate and physical security services 5 56% 6.6x ADT Inc. (ADT) · The Brink's Company (BCO) · +3 more Scale meets execution risk. This group represents 56% of the peer group. Contract retention, wage recovery, route density and service delivery determine whether scale converts into durable earnings. Adjacent models 4 44% 11.6x Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) · Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) · +2 more Recurring layers widen choice. This group represents 44% of the peer group. Software, connectivity, devices and aerial surveillance can shift the mix toward recurring revenue or technology-delivered coverage.

  7. 07
    SECTION 03

    03

    This is a divider introducing Section 03 on how the premium end prices in durable growth.

    Forward valuation already credits expected earnings, which raises the bar: names priced at the top of the range need to keep delivering, not just meet forecast. That's the question this section puts under the microscope.

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    SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Premium End Asks for Durable Growth Beyond the Forecast Forward valuation already credits expected earnings, raising the bar for sustained delivery. 03 of 06 Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7

  8. 08
    03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION

    The Premium End Prices in More than the Current Earnings Base

    This slide ranks all six rated companies by EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) against the sector median of 9.4x.

    We rank all six rated companies by EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), and the sector median sits at 9.4x as of September 28, 2026. The tier zones split the rated set at its own quartiles, so you can see exactly how far the premium and discount ends sit from the middle. So what: this ranking is the yardstick every other page in this report measures against.

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    03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION The Premium End Prices in More than the Current Earnings Base EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 6 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 9.4x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (6 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 21.5x CORE · median 9.4x DISCOUNT · median 5.5x Sector median 9.4x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The gap is wide. The premium end carries CY2027E EV / EBITDA of 21.5x, compared with 5.5x at the discount end. The models differ. SKYX Platforms Corp. [SKYX] and Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. [ALRM] bring device or recurring software exposure. The Brink's Company [BCO] and ADT Inc. [ADT] sit in corporate and physical security services. Forward value raises expectations. CY2027E EV / EBITDA already gives credit for forecast earnings. A premium that remains on this basis is associated with expectations that extend beyond the initial ramp.

  9. 09
    03 · VALUATION DRIVERS

    Faster-Growing Names Hold the Higher Forward Earnings Multiple

    This slide splits rated names into growth and margin cohorts and compares median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) across each.

    We split the rated names into faster- and slower-growth cohorts, and separately into higher- and lower-margin cohorts, then compare the median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) for each. Faster-growing names hold the higher forward multiple in this cohort, though the small sample size supports an association rather than a broad rule. So what: growth appears to be a stronger valuation lever than margin alone in this sector, which should shape how a management team frames its own equity story.

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    03 · VALUATION DRIVERS Faster-Growing Names Hold the Higher Forward Earnings Multiple Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=3; slower n=3; higher-margin n=3; lower-margin n=3). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at 5% · EBITDA-margin split at 20% Growth Separates the Two Observed Valuation Groups Across the six names with CY2027E EV / EBITDA estimates, the three above the 5% growth split carry 9.8x, while the other three carry 6.6x. Profitability Does Not Create One Clean Ranking High-margin names appear both above and below the sector valuation line. The observed pricing therefore sits alongside differences in growth, revenue quality and business model. Recurring Revenue Quality Sharpens the Comparison For monitoring platforms, attrition, account churn and creation multiple affect the quality of recurring monitoring revenue. For physical services, contract retention and wage recovery remain central.

  10. 10
    03 · SITUATION MAP

    The Operating Agenda Changes with Both Margin and Forward Valuation

    This slide maps rated companies by EV/EBITDA versus the sector median and EBITDA margin versus the covered median.

    We cut the rated set two ways — EV/EBITDA against the 9.4x sector median, and EBITDA margin against the 20% covered median — to see how the operating agenda shifts across the grid. These are observations on where each company sits, not recommendations. So what: the quadrant a company falls into points to a different set of near-term priorities, which the next slide turns into concrete questions.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP The Operating Agenda Changes with Both Margin and Forward Valuation Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (9.4x) (rows) and EBITDA margin vs the covered median (20%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Valuation and Margin Above Above-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 1 names Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. [ALRM] sits above both reference lines. Protecting recurring monitoring revenue quality and account retention is central to sustaining that position. Valuation Above, Margin Below Above-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 2 names Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) · SKYX Platforms Corp. (SKYX) Arlo Technologies, Inc. [ARLO] and SKYX Platforms Corp. [SKYX] sit above the valuation line and below the margin line. Their position carries an expectation that growth and operating leverage will convert into earnings. Margin Above, Valuation Below Below-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 2 names ADT Inc. (ADT) · Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) ADT Inc. [ADT] and Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock [BAER] sit above the margin line and below the valuation line. Their opportunity is to connect current profitability with a clearer path to durable growth. Both Measures Below Below-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 1 names The Brink's Company (BCO) The Brink's Company [BCO] sits below both reference lines. Contract economics, route density and revenue mix are the operating levers most relevant to improving its standing.

  11. 11
    03 · THE AGENDA

    Management Priorities Should Match the Revenue Model the Market Sees

    This slide frames the operating questions an owner or acquirer should resolve based on where a company sits on the situation map.

    Building on the situation map, we frame the practical questions an owner or acquirer should be asking — resolving revenue-model fit before chasing the next multiple. This is a directional view, grounded in the cohort data shown earlier, not investment advice. So what: matching management priorities to the market's read of the business model is the clearest way to close the valuation gap we've shown.

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    03 · THE AGENDA Management Priorities Should Match the Revenue Model the Market Sees NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 Strengthen Recurring Revenue Quality Focus the operating plan on attrition, account churn, contract tenor and interactive services attach where recurring monitoring revenue is central. What changes the answer: The answer changes when retention and account creation economics move together. Convert Labour into Technology Leverage Test where video verification, remote monitoring or aerial surveillance can complement labour-delivered coverage without weakening service quality. What changes the answer: The answer changes when technology lowers cost to serve while preserving contract retention. Protect Contract-Level Economics Align pricing, wage recovery and staffing with customer economics in guarding and physical services. What changes the answer: The answer changes when bill-rate recovery consistently keeps pace with labour pressure. Choose Build Versus Buy Deliberately Compare organic account creation with dealer programs, bulk account purchases and regional operating combinations. What changes the answer: The answer changes when acquired account quality exceeds the return from internal creation.

  12. 12
    SECTION 04

    04

    This is a divider introducing Section 04 on precedent transactions across several routes to scale.

    Buyers in this sector have backed several distinct routes to scale — monitoring accounts, physical services, technology and route density have each attracted capital. The deal record ahead shows where that capital has gone.

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    SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS Precedent Transactions Show Buyers Backing Several Routes to Scale Monitoring accounts, physical services, technology and route density have each attracted capital. 04 of 06 Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12

  13. 13
    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES

    Deal Activity Clusters Around Customer Accounts, Service Density and Technology

    This slide walks through a case study among the transactions with disclosed terms, showing multiples on LTM financials at announcement.

    We walk through one of the 13 disclosed-terms transactions as a case study, with multiples read on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed. The complete list sits in the appendix, and the 26 recorded transactions without a disclosed value or multiple are kept in the companion workbook rather than shown here. So what: these deals confirm that buyers are paying for customer accounts, service density and technology, not just scale for its own sake.

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Deal Activity Clusters Around Customer Accounts, Service Density and Technology 1 of 13 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 43 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (carve out target recorded as parent; deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 26 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13 Dec-2019 $381M ADT Inc. ADT Inc. [ADT] paired with Defender Holdings, Inc. to add security scale. EV / LTM revenue n/a EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED The pairing suggests value in combining an established security platform with another security operator. The fit points to account density and operating scale as relevant buyer considerations. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The transaction carried a disclosed value of $381M. It provides a scale reference rather than an earnings-multiple benchmark.

  14. 14
    SECTION 05

    05

    This is a divider introducing Section 05 on matching operating priorities to business model.

    Value strengthens when operating priorities match the business model — the practical agenda differs across recurring platforms, physical services and technology-led models. This section turns that into a set of near-term choices.

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    SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Value Strengthens When Operating Priorities Match the Business Model The practical agenda differs across recurring platforms, physical services and technology-led models. 05 of 06 Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

    Earn the Next Turn of Value on Mix, Pricing and Retention

    This slide sets out the operating questions this data raises for owners, management teams and strategic buyers over the next twelve months.

    We lay out the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months — earning the next turn of value through mix, pricing and retention. These are directional views drawn from the analysis in this report, not recommendations tied to any specific security. So what: the sector's valuation gap is explained by decisions management can actually make, which is exactly where this report points next.

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Earn the Next Turn of Value on Mix, Pricing and Retention NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15 FOR OWNERS Align Capital with Durable Revenue Direct investment toward retention, recurring mix and service delivery rather than growth that adds low-quality accounts or one-time hardware revenue. FOR MANAGEMENT TEAMS Make the Earnings Ramp Operational Tie growth plans to account economics, staffing, central station efficiency and contract-level margin so forecast earnings have visible operating support. FOR STRATEGIC BUYERS Underwrite the Operating Model Separate recurring monitoring assets, labour-led services, cash logistics and technology platforms before comparing valuation references.

  16. 16
    SECTION 06

    06

    This is a divider introducing Section 06, the full comparable universe, methodology and sources.

    This final section holds the comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis we used, and where each underlying figure comes from. Use it to check any number in this deck at the level of detail you need.

    Everything on this page

    SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier

    This slide lists all six rated public comparables grouped by valuation tier on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E).

    We group all six rated public comparables by valuation tier on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), with shading marking names above and below the 9.4x sector median. Three companies in the approved universe carry no eligible multiple and are listed separately in the companion workbook. So what: this table is the complete rated set behind every valuation reference used earlier in the deck.

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (9.4x); amber marks below · 6 rated companies; 3 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 6 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥11.1x · median 21.5x · 2 companies SKYX Platforms Corp. SKYX Intrusion, access control and life-safety device… $167M 31.5x 28% 4% 32 Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ALRM Alarm management and video monitoring software platforms $2.8B 11.6x 4% 21% 26 CORE — 7.2x–11.1x · median 9.4x · 2 companies Arlo Technologies, Inc. ARLO Alarm signalling and monitoring connectivity hardware $1.2B 9.8x 6% 20% 25 Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common… BAER Corporate and physical security services $701M 9.0x 15% 50% 65 DISCOUNT — <7.2x · median 5.5x · 2 companies The Brink's Company BCO Corporate and physical security services $7.4B 6.6x 4% 19% 23 ADT Inc. ADT Corporate and physical security services $12.5B 4.5x 3% 52% 55

  18. 18
    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This slide lists precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, the first of two pages.

    This page lists precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, drawing on the transactions with disclosed terms within this tier's recorded total. Multiples are read on LTM financials at announcement, and deal values link to the underlying filing. So what: this is the primary deal evidence behind the case studies discussed earlier in the report.

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 13 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (39 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 43 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (carve out target recorded as parent; deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 26 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Aug-2023 PVH Corp. → ADT Commercial Business n/a n/a 8.5x PVH Corp. and ADT Commercial Business were paired at 8.5x EV / EBITDA, providing a reference for a scaled commercial security operation. Dec-2022 NRG Energy, Inc. → Vivint Smart Home, Inc. n/a n/a 7.2x NRG Energy, Inc. and Vivint Smart Home, Inc. were paired at 7.2x EV / EBITDA, linking an energy buyer with a connected-home platform. Dec-2021 Teleperformance SE → Senture, LLC n/a n/a 10.5x Teleperformance SE and Senture, LLC were paired at 10.5x EV / EBITDA, showing interest in service-led operating capability. Dec-2020 Securitas AB → Fe Moran Security Solutions, LLC n/a 0.4x 10.1x Securitas AB and Fe Moran Security Solutions, LLC were paired at 0.4x EV / Revenue and 10.1x EV / EBITDA, offering both revenue and earnings references. Aug-2020 Sunrun Inc. → Vivint n/a 8.1x 29.9x Sunrun Inc. and Vivint were paired at 8.1x EV / Revenue and 29.9x EV / EBITDA, showing the valuation attached to a connected-home combination. Feb-2020 The Brink’s Company → majority of the cash operations of G4S n/a n/a 5.5x The Brink’s Company and majority of the cash operations of G4S were paired in a transaction that points to the strategic relevance of route and operating density. Dec-2019 ADT Inc. → Defender Holdings, Inc. $381M n/a n/a ADT Inc. [ADT] and Defender Holdings, Inc. were paired in a transaction that provides a disclosed-value reference for account and operating scale. May-2018 The Brink’s Company → Dunbar Armored, Inc. n/a n/a 12.1x The Brink’s Company and Dunbar Armored, Inc. were paired at 12.1x EV / EBITDA, highlighting the value placed on cash-logistics scale. Mar-2018 Motorola Solutions, Inc. → Avigilon Corporation n/a 16.5x 16.5x Motorola Solutions, Inc. and Avigilon Corporation were paired at 16.5x on both disclosed valuation measures, linking communications with video surveillance.

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This slide continues the list of precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first.

    We continue the same list of disclosed-terms transactions here, still newest first and on the same LTM-at-announcement basis. Deal values continue to link through to the underlying filing for anyone who wants the primary source. So what: together with the prior page, this gives the complete disclosed-terms deal record supporting the report's transaction commentary.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 13 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (39 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 43 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (carve out target recorded as parent; deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 26 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Jul-2017 The Brink’s Company → Maco Transportadora de Caudales S.A. n/a n/a 8.7x Feb-2016 Apollo Global Management LLC → ADT Corporation n/a n/a 6.7x Dec-2010 Ascent Capital Group, Inc. → Monitronics International, Inc. n/a n/a 6.2x Jan-2010 Tyco International Ltd. → Brink’s Home Security Holdings, Inc. n/a n/a 8.8x

  20. 20
    06 · METHODOLOGY

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality

    This slide explains the report's sources, valuation assumptions and data-quality exclusions.

    This page sets out the sources behind this report, the valuation assumptions we applied, and the data-quality exclusions that kept certain multiples and transactions out of the analysis. Every figure carries a link to its underlying record, or a named source where a link isn't available. So what: this is where the basis for any figure in the deck can be checked before it's relied on.

    Everything on this page

    06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 20 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (6 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Security and Monitoring Services and it clears the coverage gate with 6 of 9 companies (67%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 6 of the 7 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 14 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 320 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (319) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.

  21. 21

    In This Sample, Higher Forward Valuations Sit with Growth and Differentiated Models.

    This is the closing slide restating that higher forward valuations sit with growth and differentiated models in this sample.

    In this sample, higher forward valuations sit with growth and differentiated models — that's the throughline across the market map, the valuation drivers and the deal record. The companion tables carry the full universe and source index for any figure worth exploring further.

    Everything on this page

    In This Sample, Higher Forward Valuations Sit with Growth and Differentiated Models. NeuraCap AI — Security and Monitoring Services Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Security and Monitoring Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 21

Sources and methodology

This report covers Security and Monitoring Services (Industrials › Commercial and Professional Services › Security and Monitoring Services) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 9 listed companies whose core business is Security and Monitoring Services according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: ADT Inc. (ADT), Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM), Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER), The Brink's Company (BCO), EHang Holdings Limited (EH), Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC), SKYX Platforms Corp. (SKYX), SU Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares (SUGP). The market map groups them by business vertical — Corporate and physical security services: 5 companies (ADT, BCO, NSSC, BAER, SUGP); Adjacent models: 4 companies (ALRM, ARLO, SKYX, EH). 6 of the 9 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.

Scope and company universe

This report covers Security and Monitoring Services (Industrials › Commercial and Professional Services › Security and Monitoring Services) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 9 listed companies whose core business is Security and Monitoring Services according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: ADT Inc. (ADT), Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM), Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER), The Brink's Company (BCO), EHang Holdings Limited (EH), Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC), SKYX Platforms Corp. (SKYX), SU Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares (SUGP). The market map groups them by business vertical — Corporate and physical security services: 5 companies (ADT, BCO, NSSC, BAER, SUGP); Adjacent models: 4 companies (ALRM, ARLO, SKYX, EH). 6 of the 9 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.

What was excluded and why

14 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (14 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: BAER — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · BAER — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · BAER — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · BAER — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · EH — EBITDA is non-positive; EV/EBITDA is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · EH — EBITDA is non-positive; EV/EBITDA is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · EH — EBITDA is non-positive; EV/EBITDA is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · EH — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SKYX — EBITDA is non-positive; EV/EBITDA is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SKYX — EBITDA is non-positive; EV/EBITDA is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SKYX — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SKYX — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SKYX — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SKYX — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)

Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen

Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (6 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Security and Monitoring Services and it clears the coverage gate with 6 of 9 companies (67%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 6 of the 7 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 6 of 9 companies; EV / rEVenue: 8 of 9 companies; P/E: 5 of 9 companies. 1 company shows a non-meaningful EV / EBITDA denominator and is excluded from that statistic. 2 companies show a non-meaningful P / E denominator and are excluded from that statistic.

How the multiples and statistics are computed

Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥11.1x, Core 7.2x–11.1x, Discount <7.2x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 9.4x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) (6 rated companies) · 21.5x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=2) · 9.4x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Core tier (n=2) · 5.5x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=2) · 9.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth ≥ 5% (n=3) · 6.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth < 5% (n=3) · 9.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin ≥ 20% (n=3) · 9.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin < 20% (n=3) · 29% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=6)

Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why

The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Security and Monitoring Services recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 39 transactions were recorded for this industry; 13 are shown. 26 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 20 × deal value unit unresolved; 15 × no evidence record; 3 × duplicate precedent id; 4 × divestiture roles reassigned; 1 × carve out target recorded as parent. Case studies lead with the 1 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.

Sources

Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 28, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 324 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.

Interpretation and important notice

Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.

This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.

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