NEURACAP
Sector ReportSep 28, 2026 · 21 pages · Free to read

Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Sector Outlook — September 2026

A sector outlook on the ten public companies in Renewable Fuels and Biofuels, covering how EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) multiples separate contracted-cash-flow models from merchant-margin exposure, plus the precedent plant and platform transaction record.

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Key figures

7.8x
Sector median valuation
EV / EBITDA, CY2027E, rated names
8.0x
Faster-growth cohort multiple
EV / EBITDA, CY2027E, faster-growing names
50%
Adjacent models share of set
of the 10 companies covered
19%
Covered EBITDA margin median
cohort split point

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ENERGY › ENERGY › RENEWABLE FUELS AND BIOFUELS

Renewable Fuels: The Premium Sits with Contracted Cash Flow

How the ten companies in this sector are priced on forward profit, what separates the top of the range from the bottom, and what the transaction record shows about how buyers underwrite plants and platforms.

September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E)

Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice

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Executive summary

Across ten companies, EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians split into three groups — adjacent models, specialty biodiesel processing and bio-based chemicals — each underwritten differently. Contracted, long-dated offtake names price above the 7.8x sector median, while merchant-margin exposure sits below it. Plants change hands at the asset level as often as companies do at the corporate level, and buyers price on different bases. The separation at the top of the range tracks with contracted volume, carbon intensity position and feedstock control.

Key findings

  • Adjacent models make up half the set, priced apart from legacy biodiesel and chemicals.
  • Contracted volumes command higher forward multiples than merchant-margin exposure.
  • Faster-growing names hold the higher forward price, an association not proof of cause.
  • Plant-level deals occur as often as corporate ones, priced on different bases.

What each page shows

The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.

  1. 01
    ENERGY › ENERGY › RENEWABLE FUELS AND BIOFUELS

    Renewable Fuels: The Premium Sits with Contracted Cash Flow

    Cover slide introducing the sector outlook and its central finding that valuation premium tracks contracted cash flow.

    This outlook shows why, across Renewable Fuels and Biofuels, the highest forward prices sit with contracted cash flow rather than headline growth. We use it to set up the market map, valuation drivers and transaction record that follow.

    Everything on this page

    ENERGY › ENERGY › RENEWABLE FUELS AND BIOFUELS Renewable Fuels: The Premium Sits with Contracted Cash Flow How the ten companies in this sector are priced on forward profit, what separates the top of the range from the bottom, and what the transaction record shows about how buyers underwrite plants and platforms. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1

  2. 02
    CONTENTS

    What This Report Covers

    Contents page listing the report's five sections plus appendix, with the bottom line placed first.

    We've structured this report so the bottom line comes first — read section one and you have the whole story, then use the sections that follow to go deeper on landscape, valuation, precedents and strategic implications. So what: however much time you have, you leave with the finding.

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    CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Three Business Models, Three Pricing Conventions in Renewable Fuels and Biofuels 02 The Landscape Half the Set Sits Outside Legacy Ethanol and Biodiesel 03 Valuation & Situations Buyers Pay up Where the Cash Flow Is Contracted 04 Precedent Transactions Plants Change Hands as Often as Companies 05 Strategic Implications Contract Mix and CI Position Are the Levers Nearest the Price 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2

  3. 03
    01 · THE BOTTOM LINE

    Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Splits Three Ways: Adjacent Models, Specialty Biodiesel Processing and Bio-Based Chemicals

    The bottom line: the sector splits into three business models priced on different valuation bases, with contracted cash flow commanding the premium.

    Across the ten companies we track, the sector doesn't price as one industry — it splits into adjacent models, specialty biodiesel processing and bio-based chemicals, each underwritten differently. The seven names carrying a forward estimate sit at a 7.8x median EV / EBITDA on CY2027E, and the names above that mark run contracted volumes rather than merchant margin. Faster-growing names also hold the higher forward price, though on this sample size that's an association worth testing, not proof of cause. So what: where your business sits in that split determines how the market is already crediting your cash flow.

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    01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Splits Three Ways: Adjacent Models, Specialty Biodiesel Processing and Bio-Based Chemicals The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 The Headline Price Already Credits the Forecast The set sits at 7.8x EV / EBITDA on CY2027E, and 7 of the 10 companies carry a forward estimate. Because a forward multiple already gives credit for forecast earnings, a price above that mark points to cash flow the market treats as durable rather than to a cheap entry point. 2 The Faster-Growing Names Hold the Higher Price Split the 7 companies with a forward estimate at 19% expected growth and the 4 faster-growing names sit at 8.0x on CY2027E, above the 3 slower ones. On groups this small the gap is an association worth testing, not proof of cause. 3 Contracted Volumes Are Priced Differently from Merchant Margin The two names at the top of the range, OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) and Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK), run waste-to-fuel and biomethane upgrading assets with long-dated offtake and attribute monetisation. The names carrying more merchant exposure to RIN and LCFS credit pricing sit lower in the same range. 4 Half the Set No Longer Looks Like an Ethanol Business Adjacent models — RNG, fuelling infrastructure and process equipment — account for 5 of the 10 companies, or 50% of the set. Specialty biodiesel and blendstock processing is 30% and bio-based chemicals and renewable intermediates 20%, and the three groups are not underwritten on the same basis. 7.8x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 7 rated of 10 companies 9.7x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 6.2x at the discount end top quartile (n=2) against bottom quartile (n=3) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 11 Transactions with disclosed terms 47 recorded in this tier · 2 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix

  4. 04
    SECTION 02

    02

    Section divider introducing the market landscape across the three business-model groups.

    Half of the ten companies now sit outside legacy ethanol and biodiesel. We use this section to map the three groups and what each sells.

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    SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Half the Set Sits Outside Legacy Ethanol and Biodiesel Three groups across the 10 companies, and what they sell. 02 of 06 Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4

  5. 05
    02 · MARKET MAP

    Adjacent Models Carry Half the Set, and They Are Priced Apart

    Market map showing adjacent models carry half the ten-company set and price apart from the other two groups.

    Adjacent models — RNG, fuelling infrastructure and process equipment — account for half of the ten companies we cover, and their median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) sits apart from specialty biodiesel processing and bio-based chemicals. This split matters because a buyer or investor comparing names across groups is comparing different businesses, not just different multiples. So what: any cross-group comparison needs to start from the segment, not the headline multiple.

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    02 · MARKET MAP Adjacent Models Carry Half the Set, and They Are Priced Apart 10 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 SPECIALTY BIODIESEL AND BLENDSTOCK PROCESSING 3 cos median 7.0x Aemetis (AMTX) Gevo (GEVO) FutureFuel (FF) 30% of the set, where feedstock flexibility and pathway approvals decide how much credit value a plant keeps. BIO-BASED CHEMICALS AND RENEWABLE INTERMEDIATES 2 cos 5.9x · 1 rated Green Plains (GPRE) REX American (REX) 20% of the set, with one of the two carrying a forward estimate, so read its price as a single data point. ADJACENT MODELS 5 cos median 8.7x OPAL Fuels (OPAL) Babcock & Wilcox (BW) Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) Montauk Renewables (MNTK) AleAnna (ANNA) RNG, fuelling and equipment businesses — 50% of the set, and the group holding the top of the forward range.

  6. 06
    02 · LANDSCAPE

    Value in the Three Groups Rests on Different Things, and so Does the Risk a Buyer Takes On

    Segment view showing that value and risk in each of the three groups rest on different underlying drivers.

    Each of the three groups carries its own value driver and its own risk: contracted offtake in adjacent models, feedstock and blending economics in specialty biodiesel, and process chemistry in bio-based chemicals. We lay out what each group does and why it matters so a reader can place any name against the right yardstick. So what: matching the diligence question to the group avoids underwriting the wrong risk.

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    02 · LANDSCAPE Value in the Three Groups Rests on Different Things, and so Does the Risk a Buyer Takes On Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Specialty biodiesel and blendstock processing 3 30% 7.0x Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) · Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) · +1 more Waste oils, corn, blendstock. Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX), Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) and FutureFuel Corp. (FF) process biodiesel and blendstock, with 2 of the 3 carrying a forward estimate and a middle price of 7.0x on CY2027E. Feedstock cost basis, carbon intensity (CI) score by pathway and RIN generation by category are the lines that move plant margin here. Bio-based chemicals and renewable intermediates 2 20% 5.9x n=1 Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) · REX American Resources Corporation (REX) Ethanol economics and co-products. Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) and REX American Resources Corporation (REX) turn corn into fuel and higher-value intermediates, where crush spread, distillers grains and corn oil realisation carry plant margin. One of the two carries a forward estimate, at 5.9x on CY2027E, so treat that as a single data point rather than a group price. Adjacent models 5 50% 8.7x OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) · Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW) · +3 more Contracted volumes and hardware. OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL), Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) and Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE) sit alongside equipment supplier Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW) and AleAnna, Inc. (ANNA). The group's middle price is 8.7x on CY2027E, on the 4 of its 5 companies with a forward estimate, and host agreements, pipeline interconnect and dispensing assets are what a buyer diligences.

  7. 07
    SECTION 03

    03

    Section divider introducing the public-market valuation analysis on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E).

    Seven of the ten companies carry a forward EV / EBITDA estimate, and this section shows where and why buyers pay up within that range.

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    SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS Buyers Pay up Where the Cash Flow Is Contracted EV / EBITDA on CY2027E across the 10 companies, 7 of which carry a forward estimate. 03 of 06 Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7

  8. 08
    03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION

    The Top of the Range Runs Contracted Volumes; The Bottom Runs Merchant Margin

    Ranked chart of the seven rated companies' EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) multiples against the 7.8x sector median.

    Sorting the seven rated names by EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) shows the top of the range running contracted volumes and the bottom running merchant margin, against a sector median of 7.8x. The tier zones here are cut at the rated set's own quartiles, so they show where each name sits relative to peers, not an absolute judgment. So what: a name's tier tells us what kind of cash flow the market believes it's buying.

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    03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION The Top of the Range Runs Contracted Volumes; The Bottom Runs Merchant Margin EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 7 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 7.8x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 9.7x CORE · median 8.0x DISCOUNT · median 6.2x Sector median 7.8x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top sells contracted volumes. OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) and Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) hold the 2 places above the upper cut, on RNG assets with long-dated offtake and D3 credit generation. The lens is CY2027E, so a forward multiple already credits the forecast; a premium that survives it points to the durability of the contracted tail. The bottom carries merchant exposure. The 3 companies at the bottom of the range earn more of their margin from credit value and crush spread than from contracted volume. Buyers discount cash flow they cannot contract, and that discount shows up in the forward price rather than in the operating numbers. The top is not the fastest. OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) holds a place at the top of the range on 2% expected growth, while Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW) sits in the middle group on 78% expected growth. Position here is associated with the mix of contracted and merchant cash flow as much as with the growth rate.

  9. 09
    03 · VALUATION DRIVERS

    The Faster-Growing Names Hold the Higher Forward Price

    Cohort comparison showing faster-growing and higher-margin names hold higher median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E).

    Splitting the rated names at the covered median of 19% growth, the four faster-growing names hold a higher median multiple than the three slower ones, and a similar pattern holds on margin. On cohorts this small, we read this as an association the market is pricing, not a proven cause. So what: growth and margin trajectory are worth checking before assuming a multiple is mispriced.

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    03 · VALUATION DRIVERS The Faster-Growing Names Hold the Higher Forward Price Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=4; slower n=3; higher-margin n=4; lower-margin n=3). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at 19% · EBITDA-margin split at 19% Above the Growth Split, a Higher Price Splitting the 7 companies with a forward estimate at 19% expected growth, the 4 faster-growing names sit at 8.0x on CY2027E and the 3 slower names at 6.2x. Both groups are small, so read the gap as association rather than proof of cause. Contracted Tail Against Merchant Beta The names at the top of the range run assets with long-dated offtake and take-or-pay structures; the names at the bottom carry more merchant exposure to RIN and LCFS credit pricing. Contract mix and counterparty quality are what a buyer separates before settling on a range. Feedstock Control and CI Position Gas rights, host agreements and certified carbon intensity (CI) scores are what buyers test when they judge how much credit value a plant keeps rather than passes through. Feedstock flexibility across waste oils, corn and biogas is associated with steadier EBITDA per gallon when one feedstock moves against the plant. Assets at COD, Not Pipeline Promises Projects without FID, permits or interconnect are customarily carried as optionality rather than valued on forward EBITDA. Because the lens is CY2027E, a project that reaches commercial operation inside that window is already in the price, and slippage shows up against it.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP

    Contracted Volume and Carbon Intensity Position Mark Out Four Different Owner Agendas

    Two-by-two situation map cutting companies on EV / EBITDA versus the sector median and EBITDA margin versus the covered median.

    Plotting each name against the 7.8x sector median and the 19% margin median marks out four distinct situations rather than one continuum. We present these as observations on where companies sit, not as buy or sell recommendations. So what: the quadrant a company falls into frames the question an owner or acquirer should be asking next.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP Contracted Volume and Carbon Intensity Position Mark Out Four Different Owner Agendas Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (7.8x) (rows) and EBITDA margin vs the covered median (19%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Credited and Delivering Above-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 2 names OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) · Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) The multiple already assumes execution; the agenda is defending what the market has credited. Premium Ahead of the Operating Case Above-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 2 names Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW) · Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) The premium outruns the operating measure beneath it; the gap wants an answer before the market asks the question. Operating Case Ahead of the Price Below-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 2 names Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE) · Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) The operating case runs ahead of the price — the re-rating conversation lives in this cell. Priced for What It Is Below-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 1 names Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Priced as what it is today; ownership, structure and capital-allocation questions dominate.

  11. 11
    03 · THE AGENDA

    Contracted Volume, Carbon Intensity and Credit Exposure Compete for the Same Capital Dollar

    NeuraCap's view on the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve around contracted volume, carbon intensity and credit exposure.

    Contracted volume, carbon intensity position and credit exposure are competing for the same capital dollar across this set. We frame these as the questions worth resolving, grounded in the cohort data shown earlier — this is directional advisory judgment, not investment advice. So what: prioritising among these three is the practical capital-allocation decision facing owners now.

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    03 · THE AGENDA Contracted Volume, Carbon Intensity and Credit Exposure Compete for the Same Capital Dollar NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 Lengthen the Contracted Tail The 2 names at the top of the range run long-dated offtake with creditworthy counterparties. Moving volume from merchant sale into take-or-pay or tolling arrangements changes what a buyer can underwrite, and that mix is what the higher forward prices sit alongside. What changes the answer: An offtake or host agreement renewal that lands inside the CY2027E window. Improve the CI Score on Assets You Already Own Credit generation per gallon tracks the certified carbon intensity of the pathway. Pathway work, CCS optionality and feedstock switching are capital decisions available on plants that are already permitted, interconnected and running. What changes the answer: A pathway certification or CCS permit that moves credit generation per unit. Settle Build Against Buy on Capacity The transaction record shows plants changing hands at the asset level as often as companies do at the corporate level. Comparing the cost of a new unit against recorded plant purchase multiples is the practical test of whether to add nameplate capacity by construction or by acquisition. What changes the answer: A plant available at a multiple below replacement cost per unit of capacity. Reduce Single-Plant and Single-Feedstock Concentration Concentration in one plant or one feedstock is an exposure buyers routinely discount in this sector. Feedstock flexibility across waste oils, corn and biogas, and volume spread across more than one site, are associated with steadier cash margin through a credit-price cycle. What changes the answer: A feedstock spread that moves against the plant for a full quarter.

  12. 12
    SECTION 04

    04

    Section divider introducing the precedent transaction record across nine deals.

    Plants change hands as often as companies do in this sector. We turn now to what buyers have actually agreed to pay for them.

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    SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS Plants Change Hands as Often as Companies Nine transactions in the record, and what buyers agreed to pay. 04 of 06 Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12

  13. 13
    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES

    Ethanol Plants and RNG Platforms Have Changed Hands at Both Ends of the Range

    Two case studies from the transaction record illustrating deals struck at both ends of the pricing range.

    Ethanol plants and RNG platforms have changed hands at both ends of the range, and we walk through two case studies here with the complete list held in the appendix. Deal multiples are calculated on LTM financials at announcement, so they're not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and we don't claim a spread between the two. So what: precedent pricing tells us what buyers have actually underwritten at the asset level, a useful check against the public multiples.

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Ethanol Plants and RNG Platforms Have Changed Hands at Both Ends of the Range 2 of 11 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 57 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; no evidence record); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 36 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13 Feb-2025 $7.3B Tether Investments S.A. de C.V. acquires Adecoagro S.A. EV / LTM revenue 4.8x EV / LTM EBITDA 16.2x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Adecoagro S.A. is a large agricultural producer whose sugar and ethanol operations sit upstream of the fuels chain, and the buyer is an investment vehicle rather than an operator. The transaction suggests capital reaching for feedstock position and installed processing capacity at scale, rather than for one pathway or credit position. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Recorded at $7.3B enterprise value and 16.2x EBITDA, with the deal value unit unresolved in the filing. That EBITDA basis sits above the forward range the 7 companies with a forward estimate trade in today, which is the usual pattern when a buyer takes a whole scale producer rather than a single plant. Oct-2022 $4.1B BP p.l.c. acquires Archaea Energy Inc. EV / LTM revenue n/a EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Archaea Energy Inc. assembled a portfolio of landfill gas and biomethane upgrading projects, and BP p.l.c. is a fuel marketer with a compliance obligation and an attribute marketing arm. The transaction suggests a strategic paying for permitted, interconnected pathways and contracted volumes it would otherwise have to build over years. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Recorded at $4.1B enterprise value, with the status shown as pending. Against the forward pricing of the 7 companies with a forward estimate, a platform of that size is underwritten project by project on contracted cash flow and attribute monetisation rather than on one profit multiple.

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    SECTION 05

    05

    Section divider introducing strategic implications for owners, boards, management teams and buyers.

    Contract mix and carbon-intensity position are the levers nearest the price. This section sets out what that means for each type of reader.

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    SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Contract Mix and CI Position Are the Levers Nearest the Price What the pattern means for owners, boards, management teams and buyers. 05 of 06 Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

    Revenue Quality Tracks with Where Names Sit in the Forward Range

    Strategic implications page showing revenue quality tracks with where names sit in the forward valuation range.

    Revenue quality — contracted against merchant, credit value kept against passed through — is the lever nearest the gap between the top and bottom of the forward range. We frame this section as the questions this data puts on the table for owners, boards, management teams and buyers over the next twelve months. So what: the same lever that separates today's multiples is the one available to move a name's position in that range.

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Revenue Quality Tracks with Where Names Sit in the Forward Range NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15 FOR OWNERS Know Which Half of the Range Your Mix Puts You In The 7 companies with a forward estimate spread across a single-digit forward range, and the higher prices sit with contracted volumes and higher margins. Revenue quality — contracted against merchant, credit value kept against passed through — is the lever nearest that gap. FOR BOARDS Fund What Reaches Commercial Operation Inside the Window The lens is CY2027E, so projects reaching commercial operation inside it are already in the price while pre-FID pipeline is carried as optionality. Choosing between finishing permitted projects and starting new development is the capital decision the market is pricing. FOR MANAGEMENT TEAMS Treat CI and Feedstock as Operating Programmes Carbon intensity scores, feedstock cost basis and plant uptime sit inside daily operations, and they are what a buyer tests plant by plant. Moving EBITDA per gallon through uptime, yield per bushel and co-product realisation is operating work, not a market call.

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    SECTION 06

    06

    Section divider introducing the full comparables set, methodology and sources behind the report.

    Every figure in this report traces back to a comparable or a filing. This closing section carries that full detail.

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    SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier

    Full comparables table of the ten companies grouped by valuation tier, with seven rated and three not rated.

    This table carries all seven rated companies plus the three without an eligible EV / EBITDA figure, shaded against the 7.8x sector median. So what: it's the complete reference a reader needs to check any multiple used earlier in this report.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (7.8x); amber marks below · 7 rated companies; 3 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 7 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥8.7x · median 9.7x · 2 companies OPAL Fuels Inc. OPAL Biorefinery and waste-to-fuel project EPC $1.2B 10.2x 2% 28% 42 Montauk Renewables, Inc. MNTK Feedstock handling and conversion technology supply $552M 9.2x 19% 25% 40 CORE — 6.2x–8.7x · median 8.0x · 2 companies Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. BW Biorefinery and biogas upgrading process equipment $1.1B 8.2x 78% 10% 32 Aemetis, Inc. AMTX Specialty biodiesel and blendstock processing $531M 7.8x 36% 18% 59 DISCOUNT — <6.2x · median 6.2x · 3 companies Gevo, Inc. GEVO Specialty biodiesel and blendstock processing $439M 6.2x 22% 34% 41 Clean Energy Fuels Corp. CLNE Biodiesel and renewable diesel refining and marketing $556M 6.2x 5% 19% 23 Green Plains Inc. GPRE Bio-based chemicals and renewable intermediates $1.5B 5.9x -7% 13% 16

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    Full list of precedent transactions with disclosed terms, sorted newest first.

    This is the complete list of transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, with deal values and multiples calculated on LTM financials at announcement. So what: it's the primary reference for anyone underwriting a plant-level acquisition against recent precedent.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 11 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (47 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 57 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; no evidence record); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 36 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Feb-2025 Tether Investments S.A. de C.V. → Adecoagro S.A. $7.3B 4.8x 16.2x Tether Investments S.A. de C.V. agreed in Feb-2025 to acquire Adecoagro S.A. at $7.3B enterprise value, or 4.8x revenue, recorded as announced. Value is shown as recorded in the filing, with the deal value unit unresolved. Oct-2023 The Ryland Group, Inc. → Azane Fuel Solutions AS n/a 1.8x n/a The Ryland Group, Inc. agreed in Oct-2023 to acquire Azane Fuel Solutions AS at 1.8x revenue, recorded as announced. Ammonia fuel handling sits adjacent to the fuels chain, and a revenue basis is the convention for an early-stage asset bought for capability. Dec-2022 Oracle → Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC n/a n/a 15.7x Oracle agreed in Dec-2022 to acquire Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC at 15.7x EBITDA, recorded as announced. That basis sits above the forward range the 7 companies with a forward estimate trade in today, a reminder that corporate ethanol assets have changed hands on… Oct-2022 BP p.l.c. → Archaea Energy Inc. $4.1B n/a n/a BP p.l.c. agreed in Oct-2022 to acquire Archaea Energy Inc. at $4.1B enterprise value, recorded as pending. It is the clearest case in this record of a strategic buying pathways, contracted volumes and compliance position rather than a single plant. Apr-2021 CVC Capital Partners → Madera fuel-grade ethanol facility n/a n/a 10.1x CVC Capital Partners agreed in Apr-2021 to acquire the Madera fuel-grade ethanol facility at 10.1x EBITDA, recorded as announced. Single-plant deals are diligenced plant by plant, and the multiple reflects an operating asset rather than a platform. Mar-2020 Baring Private Equity Asia Ltd. → Pacific Aurora, LLC n/a 1.7x 16.2x Baring Private Equity Asia Ltd. agreed in Mar-2020 to acquire Pacific Aurora, LLC at 1.7x revenue and 16.2x EBITDA, recorded as announced. Financial buyers underwriting operating volumes have agreed to pay above the forward range this set trades in today. Mar-2019 Undisclosed buyer → wood pellet plant business (unit of Astec Industries, Inc.) $914M 0.8x n/a An undisclosed buyer agreed in Mar-2019 to acquire the wood pellet plant business (unit of Astec Industries, Inc.) at $914M enterprise value and 0.8x revenue, recorded as announced. Value is shown as recorded in the filing; plant carve-outs tend to price closer to… Oct-2016 Green Plains Inc. → Ethanol Plant (Fleischmanns Vinegar Co. Inc.) n/a n/a 9.5x Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) agreed in Oct-2016 to acquire an Ethanol Plant (Fleischmanns Vinegar Co. Inc.) at 9.5x EBITDA, recorded as announced. Consolidation inside the producer set is a recurring feature of this record. Apr-2015 Green Plains Inc. → Ethanol Plant (Fleischmanns Vinegar Co. Inc.) n/a n/a 9.3x Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) agreed in Apr-2015 to acquire an Ethanol Plant (Fleischmanns Vinegar Co. Inc.) at 9.3x EBITDA, recorded as announced. Two plant purchases by the same buyer in successive years point to adding capacity by acquisition rather than by construction.

  19. 19
    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    Continuation of the full precedent transaction list, sorted newest first.

    This continues the same list of disclosed-term transactions, sorted newest first, with deal values linking back to the underlying filing. So what: taken together with the case studies, this is the full evidentiary base behind our precedent-pricing conclusions.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 11 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (47 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 57 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; no evidence record); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 36 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Dec-2014 Pacific Ethanol, Inc. → Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings, Inc. n/a n/a 9.3x Nov-2007 VeraSun Energy → US BioEnergy n/a n/a 31.2x

  20. 20
    06 · METHODOLOGY

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality

    Methodology page detailing sources, valuation basis, exclusions and data-quality notes behind the report.

    Every figure in this report links back to the record it was taken from, and this page sets out the basis, the exclusions and the data-quality flags behind them. So what: it's the page to check before relying on any specific number in this deck.

    Everything on this page

    06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 20 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Renewable Fuels and Biofuels and it clears the coverage gate with 7 of 10 companies (70%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 7 of the 7 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 20 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 384 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (383) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.

  21. 21

    In This Set, the Higher Forward Prices Sit with Contracted Volumes.

    Closing statement reiterating that higher forward prices sit with contracted volumes across this set.

    In this set, the higher forward prices sit with contracted volumes. The companion tables carry the full universe and source index for any figure a client wants to trace.

    Everything on this page

    In This Set, the Higher Forward Prices Sit with Contracted Volumes. NeuraCap AI — Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Renewable Fuels and Biofuels Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 21

Sources and methodology

This report covers Renewable Fuels and Biofuels (Energy › Energy › Renewable Fuels and Biofuels) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 10 listed companies whose core business is Renewable Fuels and Biofuels according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX), AleAnna, Inc. (ANNA), Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW), Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE), FutureFuel Corp. (FF), Gevo, Inc. (GEVO), Green Plains Inc. (GPRE), Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK), OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL), REX American Resources Corporation (REX). The market map groups them by business vertical — Specialty biodiesel and blendstock processing: 3 companies (AMTX, GEVO, FF); Bio-based chemicals and renewable intermediates: 2 companies (GPRE, REX); Adjacent models: 5 companies (OPAL, BW, CLNE, MNTK, ANNA). 7 of the 10 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.

Scope and company universe

This report covers Renewable Fuels and Biofuels (Energy › Energy › Renewable Fuels and Biofuels) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 10 listed companies whose core business is Renewable Fuels and Biofuels according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX), AleAnna, Inc. (ANNA), Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. (BW), Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE), FutureFuel Corp. (FF), Gevo, Inc. (GEVO), Green Plains Inc. (GPRE), Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK), OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL), REX American Resources Corporation (REX). The market map groups them by business vertical — Specialty biodiesel and blendstock processing: 3 companies (AMTX, GEVO, FF); Bio-based chemicals and renewable intermediates: 2 companies (GPRE, REX); Adjacent models: 5 companies (OPAL, BW, CLNE, MNTK, ANNA). 7 of the 10 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.

What was excluded and why

20 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (1 excluded from universe; 19 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: SCAG — The security name identifies an instrument rather than an operating company (depositary\s+shares?) (effect: excluded from universe) · AMTX — EBITDA is non-positive; EV/EBITDA is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · AMTX — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · AMTX — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · AMTX — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · AMTX — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · BW — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · BW — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · CLNE — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · CLNE — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · CLNE — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · CLNE — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · FF — EBITDA is non-positive; EV/EBITDA is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · FF — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · FF — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · GEVO — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · GEVO — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · GEVO — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · GPRE — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · GPRE — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)

Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen

Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Renewable Fuels and Biofuels and it clears the coverage gate with 7 of 10 companies (70%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 7 of the 7 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 7 of 10 companies; EV / rEVenue: 7 of 10 companies; P/E: 5 of 10 companies. 2 companies show a non-meaningful P / E denominator and are excluded from that statistic.

How the multiples and statistics are computed

Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥8.7x, Core 6.2x–8.7x, Discount <6.2x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 7.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) (7 rated companies) · 9.7x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=2) · 8.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Core tier (n=2) · 6.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=3) · 8.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth ≥ 19% (n=4) · 6.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth < 19% (n=3) · 7.7x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin ≥ 19% (n=4) · 7.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin < 19% (n=3) · 44% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=7)

Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why

The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Renewable Fuels and Biofuels recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 47 transactions were recorded for this industry; 11 are shown. 36 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 21 × deal value unit unresolved; 30 × no evidence record; 6 × divestiture roles reassigned. Case studies lead with the 2 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.

Sources

Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 28, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 388 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.

Interpretation and important notice

Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.

This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.

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