Railroads Sector Outlook — September 2026

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INDUSTRIALS › TRANSPORTATION › RAILROADS

Railroads: The Premium Sits with the Faster Grower

How the forward profit multiple is being set across five North American rail names, and what separates the top of the range from the bottom.

September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E)

Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice

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1. 01
   INDUSTRIALS › TRANSPORTATION › RAILROADS

   Railroads: The Premium Sits with the Faster Grower

   This is the cover slide introducing the September 2026 railroads sector outlook and its central finding.

   We're opening on the finding that carries this deck: across the North American rail names we cover, the valuation premium sits with the faster grower, not the larger network. Market data is as of 2026-09-28, and our primary lens is EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus. That framing is what the next five sections unpack.

   Everything on this page

   INDUSTRIALS › TRANSPORTATION › RAILROADS Railroads: The Premium Sits with the Faster Grower How the forward profit multiple is being set across five North American rail names, and what separates the top of the range from the bottom. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1

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   CONTENTS

   What This Report Covers

   This slide lists the five numbered sections plus the appendix that the deck runs through.

   We've structured this deck so section one carries the whole conclusion — a reader who stops there still leaves with the full story. From there we walk through the companies, public market valuation, precedent transactions and the strategic implications in turn. Use this page to navigate straight to whichever section matters most to you.

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   CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Class I Networks Set the Rail Price; Everything Below Them Trades More Often 02 The Companies Scale Concentrates in Mainline Rail; Much of the Observed Deal Activity Sits Below It 03 Valuation & Situations Forward Estimates Already Credit the Growth, and a Premium Still Survives 04 Precedent Transactions Whole-Network Deals Are Episodic; The Steady Flow Is Below the Trunk Lines 05 Strategic Implications Value Moves with Mix and Service, and Both Are Operating Choices 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2

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   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE

   Railroads: Class I Mainline Networks Frame the Pricing Observed Here; Short-Line and Terminal Holdings Sit Against It

   This slide states the headline finding that mainline Class I networks frame the pricing observed in this set, with short-line and terminal holdings sitting against it.

   This is the full argument on one page: Class I mainline networks set the pricing frame here, and short-line and terminal holdings sit against it. Four of the five companies in this set carry a CY2027E EBITDA estimate, and multiples that fail our plausibility checks are excluded rather than plotted. Everything that follows in this deck supports this single page, so it's the one page worth returning to.

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   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Railroads: Class I Mainline Networks Frame the Pricing Observed Here; Short-Line and Terminal Holdings Sit Against It The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (4 of 5 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 A Narrow Price Band Leaves Little Room for a Scale Story Four of the five companies carry a CY2027E EBITDA estimate, and they sit between 13.5x and 14.1x on that lens, with the middle of the set at 13.7x. The band is tight, alongside forward estimates that already credit the growth in each plan, so a premium that survives this lens reads as durability rather than optimism. 2 The Top of the Range Goes with the Faster Grower Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) holds the top of the range at 14.5x on a 6% growth estimate and a 52% EBITDA margin. Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) sits at the bottom at 13.4x with a 51% margin, close to the same profitability, so the gap in price is associated with the growth line rather than with margin. 3 High Margins Are the Entry Ticket Here, Not the Separator The middle of the covered set sits at a 50% EBITDA margin, and the four names with a CY2027E EBITDA estimate cluster close to it. Operating ratio progress is table stakes across a group this profitable; the separation in price sits with carload mix and with pricing above rail cost inflation over the next two years. 4 The Steady Deal Flow Sits Below the Trunk Lines Of the nine transactions shown here, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) against CSX Corporation (CSX) in July-2025 is recorded at 11.9x EBITDA, below the band these four names trade in today on forward estimates. Below the trunk lines, infrastructure funds, short-line consolidators and railcar lease capital have stayed active buyers. 13.7x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 4 rated of 5 companies 14.5x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 13.4x at the discount end top quartile (n=1) against bottom quartile (n=1) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 25 Transactions with disclosed terms 36 recorded in this tier · 1 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix

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   SECTION 02

   02

   This divider introduces the section comparing scale in mainline rail against the deal activity that sits below it.

   We're moving into the companies themselves — two groups sit under the rail label, and a different set of buyers transacts in each. Scale concentrates in mainline rail, while much of the deal activity we'll show sits below it. Keep that split in mind as we walk through the names.

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   SECTION 02 02 THE COMPANIES Scale Concentrates in Mainline Rail; Much of the Observed Deal Activity Sits Below It Two groups under the rail label, and the buyers that transact in them. 02 of 06 Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4

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   02 · THE COMPANIES

   Mainline Rail Carries the Scale in This Set, and Much of the Deal Activity Shows up Among Smaller Names

   This slide profiles the five approved companies in the set, noting where mainline scale sits against the smaller, more transaction-active names.

   Mainline rail carries the scale in this set, and much of the deal activity we cover later shows up more often among the smaller names. We cover five approved companies here, with EV/EBITDA on the CY2027E basis shown wherever a company is rated. That contrast — scale at the top, activity below it — is the frame for the valuation section that follows.

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   02 · THE COMPANIES Mainline Rail Carries the Scale in This Set, and Much of the Deal Activity Shows up Among Smaller Names 5 approved companies · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) where rated · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Company descriptions are NeuraCap views grounded in the platform's classification rationale. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. Enterprise value $94.7B EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) 14.5x Revenue growth 6% EBITDA margin 52% Holds the top of the price range, with a growth estimate above the split used on this page and margin above the middle of the set. CSX CSX Corporation Enterprise value $105B EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) 13.5x Revenue growth 5% EBITDA margin 49% Below the middle of the set on both the forward multiple and EBITDA margin, with the mix and service story still to appear in estimates. FIP FTAI Infrastructure Inc. Enterprise value $5.1B EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) n/a Revenue growth 10% EBITDA margin n/a The one short-line, terminal and rail-served holding here, carrying a 10% growth estimate and no CY2027E EBITDA multiple, so it sits outside the ranked band. NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation Enterprise value $86.1B EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) 13.9x Revenue growth 4% EBITDA margin 45% Priced at 13.9x on CY2027E EBITDA, above the middle of the set, with profitability at the bottom of the margin range and a live approach on the table. UNP Union Pacific Corporation Enterprise value $193B EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) 13.4x Revenue growth 5% EBITDA margin 51% Sits at the bottom of the price range with margin above the middle of the set, and is the named buyer across the Class I approaches in this record.

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   03

   This divider introduces the section on forward valuation, where growth is already priced in and a premium still survives.

   Forward estimates already credit the growth in each plan, and a premium still survives that lens — that's what we test next. We'll rank the set on EV/EBITDA for CY2027E, from the premium end to the discount end. This is where the price separation in the deck starts to take shape.

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   SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS Forward Estimates Already Credit the Growth, and a Premium Still Survives Ranked on EV / EBITDA for CY2027E, premium end against discount end. 03 of 06 Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6

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   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION

   The Top of the Range Goes to the Faster Grower

   This slide ranks all four rated companies on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), sorted from the premium end to the discount end against a 13.7x sector median.

   The top of the range goes to the faster grower: across all four rated companies, sorted on EV/EBITDA for CY2027E, the sector median sits at 13.7x. The tier zones we've drawn are cut at the rated set's own quartiles, so the premium and discount ends are relative to this group, not an external benchmark. That ranking is the anchor for the driver analysis on the next page.

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   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION The Top of the Range Goes to the Faster Grower EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 4 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 13.7x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (4 of 5 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7 PREMIUM · median 14.5x CORE · median 13.7x DISCOUNT · median 13.4x Sector median 13.7x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top holds 14.5x. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) prices at the top of the range on CY2027E EBITDA. It is the one name in the set carrying a growth estimate above the 5% split used on this page, and the premium survives a lens that has already credited that forecast. The bottom holds 13.4x. Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) sits at the bottom of the range on the same lens, with profitability close to the top name's. The distance between the two ends is narrow, so the ranking says less about franchise quality than about what the next two years of estimates carry. Only four names carry estimates. Four of the five companies on this page carry a CY2027E EBITDA estimate; FTAI Infrastructure Inc. (FIP) does not and is shown unranked. Read the ranking as four data points on a forward lens, not as a market-wide verdict on rail.

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   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS

   Growth Estimates Spread Wider than Margins Do in This Set

   This slide splits the median EV/EBITDA multiple by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort among the rated names with estimates.

   Growth estimates spread wider than margins do across this set, and that's the pattern we want to isolate. We've cut the rated names into cohorts at their own covered medians, on growth and on margin separately, and compared the multiple each cohort commands. The read is an association we observe in the data, not a claim that growth causes the premium — but it's the clearest signal in this set.

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   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS Growth Estimates Spread Wider than Margins Do in This Set Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=0; slower n=0; higher-margin n=0; lower-margin n=0). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 EBITDA Margins Sit Inside a Narrow Range Across the four names with a CY2027E EBITDA estimate, reported EBITDA margin runs from 45% to 52%. That is a tight spread for a group with different commodity mixes, so margin reads here as the price of entry rather than as the separator between the ends of the range. Growth Estimates Are Where the Names Pull Apart On the same four names with a CY2027E EBITDA estimate, forward growth runs from 4% to 6%, and the name at the top of the growth range also holds the top of the price range. With only four data points, treat that as a signal to test against carload mix, not as a settled rule. Corridor and Gateway Position Underpin the Downside Right-of-way, land and gateway access are not replicable, and the transaction record prices them off EBITDA with an explicit view on maintenance capital and the deferred renewal backlog. For an owner, that is the floor under the multiple; movement above the floor is associated with mix quality and service. Mix Durability Shows up Before Growth Does The shift from legacy bulk toward merchandise carload and intermodal changes the quality of earnings, not only the level. Truck conversion on intermodal lanes travels with trip plan compliance, velocity and dwell, which is why the service line and the pricing line belong in the same conversation as the multiple.

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   03 · SITUATION MAP

   Price and Margin Split Four Ways Across These Networks

   This slide places each company on a two-way cut of EV/EBITDA against the sector median and EBITDA margin against the covered median.

   We've split this set four ways — on price against the 13.7x sector median, and on margin against the 50% covered median. This is a map of situations, not a set of recommendations: it shows where each company sits relative to its peers on both dimensions at once. Where a name lands here frames the strategic questions we raise next.

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   03 · SITUATION MAP Price and Margin Split Four Ways Across These Networks Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (13.7x) (rows) and EBITDA margin vs the covered median (50%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 Priced up, Margin to Match Above-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 1 names Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) sits above the middle of the set on both the forward multiple and EBITDA margin. The forward lens already credits the growth in plan, so holding this position is a question of mix and service holding up, not of a further re-rating. Priced up on the Estimate Line Above-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 1 names Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) sits above the middle on the multiple with a 45% EBITDA margin, at the bottom of the margin range across the four names with a CY2027E EBITDA estimate. The market is pricing ahead of current profitability here, which puts operating ratio progress at the centre of the story. Margin Ahead of the Price Below-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 1 names Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) carries a 51% EBITDA margin with a multiple below the middle of the set. Profitability is already banked, so the question in this position is what the next two years of carload mix and pricing add, rather than what another cost programme adds. Below the Middle on Both Below-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 1 names CSX Corporation (CSX) CSX Corporation (CSX) sits below the middle on both measures, with a 49% EBITDA margin. That is the position where the operating line and the mix story are both in play, and where movement in trip plan compliance and pricing shows up in estimates quickly.

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    03 · THE AGENDA

    Four Moves That Strengthen a Rail Franchise's Standing

    This slide sets out four moves that, in our view, strengthen a rail franchise's standing.

    Based on the cohort data we've just walked through, we frame four moves that we think strengthen a rail franchise's standing. These are questions we'd put to an owner or acquirer to resolve, not recommendations tied to any single security. They set up the deal record we turn to next.

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    03 · THE AGENDA Four Moves That Strengthen a Rail Franchise's Standing NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Price the Merchandise Carload Book Above Rail Cost Inflation The price separation in this set sits with the growth line, and merchandise carload pricing is the part of the book an operator sets directly. Same-store pricing against rail cost inflation, renewal discipline and the switching and demurrage tariffs are where that shows up first. What changes the answer: Renewal pricing falling behind rail cost inflation for two consecutive quarters. Convert Truck Freight by Making the Trip Plan Credible Intermodal conversion travels with service, and trip plan compliance, velocity and dwell are the measures shippers underwrite. Lanes where the service product is consistent carry pricing; lanes where it is not hand the freight back to trucks. What changes the answer: Trip plan compliance and intermodal lifts moving in opposite directions. Buy the Feeder Traffic Rather than Build It Below the trunk lines the transaction record is continuous: short lines, terminals, transload and rail-served industrial land change hands regularly, often for cash with volume-contingent elements. Acquiring connecting franchises adds originated traffic and interchange without the regulatory weight of a scale combination. What changes the answer: Interchange volume handed up from connecting carriers growing faster than the originated book. Treat the Corridor and the Land Under It as an Asset Surplus corridor, real estate and fibre or utility easement rights are customarily carved out or separately valued in transactions, which is the clearest evidence they carry value on their own. Managing corridor, land and gateway position deliberately puts a floor under the franchise. What changes the answer: Rail-served industrial development on the network slowing against plan.

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    SECTION 04

    04

    This divider introduces the precedent transactions section, noting that whole-network deals are episodic while the steady flow sits below the trunk lines.

    Whole-network deals in rail are episodic; the steady flow of transactions sits below the trunk lines. We've recorded nine transactions in this set, along with what buyers paid off EBITDA. That record is what we walk through next.

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    SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS Whole-Network Deals Are Episodic; The Steady Flow Is Below the Trunk Lines Nine transactions in the record, and what buyers paid off EBITDA. 04 of 06 Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES

    What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Whole Networks, and What They Buy in Between

    This slide walks through a transaction as a case study, showing what buyers agreed to pay for whole networks and for the smaller assets in between.

    We're telling this transaction as a case study: Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) against CSX Corporation (CSX) in July-2025 is recorded at 11.9x EBITDA, on LTM financials at announcement. The complete list of 25 transactions with disclosed terms sits in the appendix, and this multiple isn't directly comparable to the CY2027E public market basis we use elsewhere — no spread is claimed. What buyers actually agreed to pay is the clearest evidence of where value sits in this sector today.

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Whole Networks, and What They Buy in Between 1 of 25 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 76 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; duplicate filings collapsed; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 11 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12 Jul-2025 $85.0B Union Pacific Corporation Union Pacific Corporation acquires Norfolk Southern Corporation EV / LTM revenue 7.0x EV / LTM EBITDA 12.1x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Both are Class I mainline franchises, and a combination of two line-haul networks is about origin-destination coverage, gateway position and interchange that neither party can build from scratch. The size of the transaction and its announced status suggest a buyer treating regulatory structure and service commitments as a design input from the outset rather than a late condition. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The transaction is recorded at $85.0B, 7.0x revenue and 12.1x EBITDA, with the value shown as recorded in the filing. That EBITDA multiple sits below the band the four names with a CY2027E EBITDA estimate trade in today, though the two are built on different periods and are not a like-for-like read.

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    SECTION 05

    05

    This divider introduces the section on strategic implications, framing value as tied to mix and service, both operating choices.

    Value in this set moves with mix and service, and both are operating choices management controls directly. We turn now to what the pricing here points to for the operating plan. This is where the deck's implications become actionable.

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    SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Value Moves with Mix and Service, and Both Are Operating Choices What the pricing in this set points to for the operating plan. 05 of 06 Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

    The Levers That Sit Inside the Operating Plan

    This slide sets out the operating-plan levers we see as most relevant for the next twelve months across owners, boards, capital allocators and operators.

    These are the levers we see sitting inside the operating plan for the year ahead. The band across rated names is tight, so mix, pricing discipline and service reliability are the pieces the price separation is associated with, more than scale or margin alone. We frame this by audience — owners, boards, capital allocators and operators — because the same data reads differently depending on the seat you sit in.

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS The Levers That Sit Inside the Operating Plan NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14 FOR OWNERS The Band Is Tight, so the Work Is in Mix and Pricing With the four names with a CY2027E EBITDA estimate sitting inside a narrow band, size on its own is not what separates them. The practical levers are carload mix, same-store pricing against rail cost inflation, and the service reliability that keeps intermodal freight off the highway. FOR BOARDS Forward Estimates Already Credit the Plan A forward EBITDA lens prices growth that is already forecast, so a premium that survives it reads as durability. The board question is what makes the next two years of carloads repeatable — contract quality, captive origins, interchange and haulage arrangements — rather than what makes them larger. FOR CAPITAL ALLOCATORS The Continuous Activity Sits Below the Trunk Lines Scale combination in rail is slow and structurally constrained, and the record here shows the steady flow in short lines, terminals and rail-served assets. Infrastructure and sovereign capital, short-line consolidators and equipment lessors are the parties transacting, underwriting contracted volume, interchange traffic and replacement cost.

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    SECTION 06

    06

    This divider introduces the appendix covering the full comparables universe, valuation basis and underlying sources.

    We close with the full universe behind every figure in this deck: the comparables set, the transaction record and the basis for each. This section is where a reader can trace any number back to where it came from. Use it as the reference layer beneath the argument we've just walked through.

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    SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier

    This slide lists the public comparables on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), grouped by valuation tier against the 13.7x sector median.

    This is the comparables table behind the ranking we showed earlier: four rated companies and one not rated, because it has no eligible EV/EBITDA multiple on this basis. Shading marks whether each name sits above or below the 13.7x sector median. Every rated row here is also in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set.

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (13.7x); amber marks below · 4 rated companies; 1 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 4 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥14.1x · median 14.5x · 1 companies Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. CP Class I mainline rail franchises $94.7B 14.5x 6% 52% 58 CORE — 13.5x–14.1x · median 13.7x · 2 companies Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC Class I mainline rail franchises $86.1B 13.9x 4% 45% 49 CSX Corporation CSX Class I mainline rail franchises $105B 13.5x 5% 49% 54 DISCOUNT — <13.5x · median 13.4x · 1 companies Union Pacific Corporation UNP Class I mainline rail franchises $193B 13.4x 5% 51% 56

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This slide lists precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, on an LTM-at-announcement basis.

    This table carries the transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, on LTM financials at announcement. Of 36 recorded transactions in this tier, 25 have disclosed terms, and this page shows 18 of the 25 — the rest sit in the companion workbook. These multiples sit on a different basis than the CY2027E public market lens we use in section three, so we don't draw a spread between them.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 25 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (36 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 76 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; duplicate filings collapsed; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 11 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 25 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Dec-2025 Napier Park Railcar Lease Fund LLC → Triumph Holdings n/a n/a 13.7x Napier Park Railcar Lease Fund LLC agreed to acquire Triumph Holdings in December-2025, announced. Railcar lease capital appearing here is a reminder that equipment financing and sale-leaseback sit alongside network M&A in how rail assets change hands. Jul-2025 Union Pacific Corporation → Norfolk Southern Corporation $85.0B 7.0x 12.1x Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) moved for Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) in July-2025, the largest disclosed value in this record and still at announced status. It is the reference point most rail conversations now run through, and it frames how buyers are… Jul-2025 Union Pacific Corporation → CSX Corporation n/a n/a 11.9x The record also carries Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) against CSX Corporation (CSX) at 11.9x EBITDA in July-2025, announced. It sits below the band the four names with a CY2027E EBITDA estimate trade in today, a reminder that deal multiples and forward multiples are… Jul-2025 Union Pacific Corporation → Canadian National Railway Company n/a n/a 12.1x The July-2025 record shows Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) against Canadian National Railway Company at 12.1x EBITDA, announced. Two of the Class I reference points here sit close together, which suggests whole networks are being framed on a common basis rather than… Jul-2025 Union Pacific Corporation → Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited n/a n/a 15.3x Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) against Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is recorded at 15.3x EBITDA in July-2025. That is the top of the Class I reference points on this page, and the spread across them suggests franchise mix and route position carried weight in… Jul-2025 Union Pacific Corporation → Class I Railroads Average n/a n/a 13.5x The record carries a Class I Railroads Average at 13.5x EBITDA in July-2025. It sits inside the band the four names with a CY2027E EBITDA estimate occupy today, so the private and public views of mainline rail are not far apart on this lens. May-2021 Canadian National Railway Company → Kansas City Southern $29.0B 11.0x 17.8x Canadian National Railway Company agreed to acquire Kansas City Southern in May-2021 at $29.0B as recorded in the filing, 11.0x revenue and 17.8x EBITDA, and the transaction is recorded as terminated. The price was agreed and the combination did not complete, which is… Jul-2019 Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. / GIC Pte Ltd. → Genesee & Wyoming Inc. n/a n/a 13.4x Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. / GIC Pte Ltd. acquired Genesee & Wyoming Inc. in July-2019. Long-duration infrastructure and sovereign capital are natural owners of short-line and terminal assets, where contracted volumes, interchange traffic and a… Mar-2017 GMéxico Transportes S.A. de C.V. → Florida East Coast Railway Holdings Corp. n/a n/a 13.6x GMéxico Transportes S.A. de C.V. acquired Florida East Coast Railway Holdings Corp. in March-2017 at 13.6x EBITDA. A rail operator buying a coastal corridor with port access is paying for origin-destination position and land, which is how corridor assets are…

18. 18
    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This slide continues the precedent transaction list with disclosed terms, newest first.

    This is the remainder of the transaction list we opened on the prior page, on the same basis: LTM financials at announcement. Together the two pages show 18 of the 25 disclosed-terms transactions, with the balance kept in the companion workbook for reference. We flag again that these multiples aren't directly comparable to the CY2027E basis used elsewhere in this deck.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 25 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (36 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 76 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; duplicate filings collapsed; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 11 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 25 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Mar-2017 GMexico Transportes S.A. de C.V. → Florida East Coast Railway Holdings Corp n/a n/a 13.6x Oct-2016 Genesee & Wyoming Australia Pty Ltd → Glencore Rail (NSW) Pty Limited n/a n/a 11.4x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Oct-2016 Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets → Genesee & Wyoming Australia Pty Ltd (49%) n/a n/a 11.2x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Mar-2016 Rail Consortium → Pacific National Holdings Pty Ltd n/a n/a 10.3x Jul-2012 Genesee & Wyoming Inc. → RailAmerica, Inc. n/a n/a 10.3x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Jan-2009 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. → Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation n/a n/a 8.8x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Jan-2007 Canadian Pacific Railway Limited → Dakota, Minnesota & Eastern Railroad Corporation n/a n/a 15.2x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Nov-2006 Fortress Investment Group LLC → RailAmerica, Inc. n/a n/a 11.7x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Dec-2004 Kansas City Southern → Transportacion Ferroviaria Mexicana, S.A. de C.V. (51%) n/a n/a 6.1x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved.

19. 19
    06 · METHODOLOGY

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality

    This slide sets out the sources, assumptions and data-quality flags behind the figures used throughout the deck.

    This page sets out how we built this analysis: the valuation basis we used, what we excluded, and where each figure's underlying source sits. Every number in this deck traces back to the record it came from, and where a figure has no direct link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Treat this page as the reference point if you want to verify any number in the analysis.

    Everything on this page

    06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 19 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (4 of 5 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Railroads and it clears the coverage gate with 4 of 5 companies (80%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 4 of the 4 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 5 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 168 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (167) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.

20. 20

    Across This Rail Set, the Price Separation Sits with Mix and Service.

    This is the closing slide restating that the price separation in this rail set sits with mix and service.

    Across this rail set, the price separation sits with mix and service — that's the finding we'd want you to leave with. The companion tables beside this deck carry the full comparables universe, the exclusion ledger and the source index for any number a client wants to trace. We're glad to walk through any piece of this in more detail.

    Everything on this page

    Across This Rail Set, the Price Separation Sits with Mix and Service. NeuraCap AI — Railroads Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Railroads Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 20

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