Machinery Rental and Leasing Sector Outlook — September 2026
This report compares nine listed machinery rental and leasing companies on forward EV/EBITDA, showing how branch density, end-market mix and expected growth align with valuation, and reviews the precedent transaction record. For owners, operators, boards and buyers of fleet assets.
Key figures
- 6.9x
- Sector Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) 6 of 9 companies rated, CY2027E consensus
- 7.7x
- Diversified Fleets Median EV / EBITDA Three diversified multi-category names with a forward estimate
- 4.4x
- Oilfield Fleets Median EV / EBITDA Two oilfield rental fleet names
- 8%
- Forward Growth Cohort Split Median expected revenue growth split, six rated names with estimates
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1 / 21 · Machinery Rental: The Premium Sits with Faster Growers
Executive summary
Across the nine machinery rental and leasing companies we cover, the higher forward EV/EBITDA ratings sit with the faster-growing fleets rather than the higher-margin ones, and diversified multi-category platforms hold the middle and upper part of the range while the two oilfield rental fleets sit below it. The precedent transaction record shows buyers pricing fleet, branch density and contracted lease books across a wide band rather than at a single multiple. Together, growth and end-market mix explain more of the sector's valuation spread than margin alone.
Key findings
- Higher forward ratings sit with faster expected growth, not fatter margins.
- Diversified multi-category fleets hold the middle and upper range on branch density.
- Oilfield rental fleets price at a discount tied to single end-market exposure.
- Precedent transactions price fleet, branch density and lease books across a wide range
What each page shows
The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.
- 01INDUSTRIALS › CAPITAL GOODS › MACHINERY RENTAL AND LEASING
Machinery Rental: The Premium Sits with Faster Growers
This is the cover page introducing the sector outlook on machinery rental and leasing, dated September 28, 2026.
We open with the sector's core finding: across machinery rental and leasing, the premium in today's ratings sits with the faster-growing fleets. This report walks through why, using EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus as of September 28, 2026.
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INDUSTRIALS › CAPITAL GOODS › MACHINERY RENTAL AND LEASING Machinery Rental: The Premium Sits with Faster Growers How nine listed fleet owners are priced on forward EBITDA, which groups hold the higher ratings, and what the transaction record shows buyers paying for. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1
- 02CONTENTS
What This Report Covers
This page lists the report's five sections plus appendix: the bottom line, the landscape, valuation and situations, precedent transactions, and strategic implications.
We've structured this report so the bottom line comes first — read section one alone and you have the whole story, with the detail waiting for you in the sections that follow.
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CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Three Different Fleet Businesses, Priced on Three Different Terms 02 The Landscape Branch Networks Hold Most of the Set; Single-Basin Fleets Sit Below the Middle 03 Valuation & Situations The Forward Range Is Wide, and the Top of It Is Growing Faster 04 Precedent Transactions The Transaction Record Prices Fleet, Branch Density and Contracted Lease Books 05 Strategic Implications What the Evidence Means for the Next Fleet Dollar 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2
- 0301 · THE BOTTOM LINE
Machinery Rental and Leasing Is Priced as Three Businesses: Diversified Fleets, Oilfield Fleets and Adjacent Models
This page summarizes the report's finding that the sector prices as three distinct businesses on forward EV/EBITDA.
We find that machinery rental and leasing isn't priced as one sector — it splits into diversified fleets, oilfield fleets and adjacent lease models, each rated differently on EV/EBITDA for CY2027E. Six of the nine companies we cover carry an eligible forward estimate, and the middle of that range sits at 6.9x. The higher ratings track expected growth more closely than margin, and end-market mix shows up clearly in the multiple. So what: a fleet owner's next dollar of capital doesn't earn the same rating everywhere it's deployed, and this page is the map for deciding where it does.
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01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Machinery Rental and Leasing Is Priced as Three Businesses: Diversified Fleets, Oilfield Fleets and Adjacent Models The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (6 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 Buyers Price Forward Earnings, and the Range Is Wide Of the nine companies on the page, six carry a forward EV / EBITDA estimate for CY2027E, with the middle of that set at 6.9x inside a span of 5.4x to 8.8x. A forward multiple already credits forecast growth, so a rating that holds up on this basis points to earnings buyers expect to last. 2 A Fatter Margin Is Not Where the Higher Rating Sits NPK International Inc. (NPKI) carries a 26% EBITDA margin and prices at 9.2x; Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS) carries 47% and prices at 5.1x. EBITDA here is measured before replacement fleet capex, so on this set a fat margin on its own is associated with neither end of the range. 3 The Higher Ratings Sit with the Faster-Growing Fleets Split the six names with a forward estimate at 8% expected growth and the three above the line carry a higher middle multiple than the three below, which sit at 6.0x. Expected growth across the set runs from 3% to 19%, and the pricing gap tracks that axis more closely than it tracks margin. 4 End-Market Mix Shows up in the Rating The two oilfield rental fleets carry a middle multiple of 4.4x, against 7.7x across the three diversified multi-category fleet names with a forward estimate. We read that gap as single end-market exposure and residual value risk sitting alongside the lower multiple, while branch density and specialty breadth are associated with the higher one. 6.9x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 6 rated of 9 companies 9.1x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 4.4x at the discount end top quartile (n=2) against bottom quartile (n=2) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 36 Transactions with disclosed terms 64 recorded in this tier · 2 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix
- 04SECTION 02
02
This divider introduces section two, covering the market map of who rents what and how each group is currently rated.
Section two lays out the market map: branch networks hold most of this set, while single-basin fleets sit below the middle of the range. We use this section to show who rents what, to whom, and how the market currently rates each group.
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SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Branch Networks Hold Most of the Set; Single-Basin Fleets Sit Below the Middle Who rents what, to whom, and how each group is currently rated. 02 of 06 Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4
- 0502 · MARKET MAP
Over Half the Set Rents Many Categories Out of One Branch Network
This page groups the nine approved companies by business segment and shows the median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) for each group.
Over half the companies in this set rent multiple equipment categories out of a single branch network, and we've grouped all nine names by that business-segment lens. Each group's median rating on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) tells us where the market currently sits relative to the others. So what: segment mix is the first cut a buyer or owner should make before comparing any two names directly.
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02 · MARKET MAP Over Half the Set Rents Many Categories Out of One Branch Network 9 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 DIVERSIFIED MULTI-CATEGORY FLEET RENTAL AND LEASING 5 cos median 7.7x United Rentals (URI) GATX U-Haul Holding (UHAL) Herc Holdings (HRI) Custom Truck One (CTOS) Five of the nine companies and 56% of the set: general rental plus specialty categories, sold on branch density and delivery economics. OILFIELD RENTAL TOOLS AND PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT FLEETS 2 cos median 4.4x Natural Gas (NGS) Ranger Energy (RNGR) Two companies and 22% of the set: fleet earnings tied to basin activity, with rate exposure when utilization softens. ADJACENT MODELS 2 cos 9.2x · 1 rated Trinity Industries (TRN) NPK International (NPKI) Two companies whose contracted lease and worksite rental economics read closer to asset financing than to spot rental.
- 0602 · LANDSCAPE
Branch Density Lines up with the Middle of the Range; Basin Exposure Sits Below It
This page compares branch-density and basin-exposure segments against the median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) rating for each.
Branch-density fleets — the multi-category networks — line up with the middle of the forward range, while basin-exposed fleets sit below it. This segment view uses EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names only, so it reflects the market's current read on each business model. So what: the gap between these two groups is the starting point for section three, where we test what's actually driving it.
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02 · LANDSCAPE Branch Density Lines up with the Middle of the Range; Basin Exposure Sits Below It Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Diversified multi-category fleet rental and leasing 5 56% 7.7x United Rentals, Inc. (URI) · GATX Corporation (GATX) · +3 more Many categories, one branch network. Five companies here, and the three with a forward estimate sit at a middle of 7.7x. This is the group where dollar utilization, return on OEC and metro-level density do the work, and where buyers underwrite maintenance, logistics and procurement cost they can see. Oilfield rental tools and production equipment fleets 2 22% 4.4x Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS) · Ranger Energy Services, Inc. (RNGR) Fleet tied to one basin. Both companies in this group carry a forward estimate, and both sit in the discount tier. Rate erosion once activity softens, plus residual value risk in the used equipment channel, is what the rating here is carrying. Adjacent models 2 22% 9.2x n=1 Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN) · NPK International Inc. (NPKI) Contracted lease economics. Two companies, of which one carries a forward estimate, at 9.2x. Contracted lease term and worksite rental demand give a different cash profile from spot rental, and long-hold capital has historically gravitated to that shape.
- 07SECTION 03
03
This divider introduces section three, covering public market valuation, valuation drivers and situation mapping.
Section three turns to public market valuation: the forward range is wide, and the top of it belongs to the faster growers. Of the nine companies on the page, six carry a forward estimate, and that's the set we work with through this section.
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SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Forward Range Is Wide, and the Top of It Is Growing Faster Nine companies on the page, six of them with a forward estimate. 03 of 06 Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7
- 0803 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION
The Top of the Range Is Held by Fleets Growing Faster than the Set
This page ranks all six rated companies by EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) and shows the sector median of 6.9x.
We rank all six rated companies by EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus, and the sector median lands at 6.9x. The top of that range is held by the fleets growing faster than the set as a whole, not by any one segment alone. Tier zones on this page split the rated set at its own quartiles, so every comparison here sits on the same basis. So what: rating position tracks growth more than any single business model, which is the thread the next page tests directly.
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03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION The Top of the Range Is Held by Fleets Growing Faster than the Set EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 6 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 6.9x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (6 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 9.1x CORE · median 6.9x DISCOUNT · median 4.4x Sector median 6.9x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top end grows faster. The two companies at the top of the range price at a middle of 9.1x, with United Rentals, Inc. (URI) at 9% expected growth and NPK International Inc. (NPKI) at 11%. Both sell breadth of category and density rather than a single end-market. The bottom end carries basin risk. The two companies at the bottom of the range price at a middle of 4.4x, and both rent into oilfield activity. Concentration in one end-market, and the residual value that follows it, is what sits underneath that rating. A forward multiple already credits growth. The lens is EV / EBITDA on CY2027E, so forecast growth is already inside the number. A rating that holds at the top of the range on a forward basis is associated with earnings buyers expect to persist, not with a single strong year.
- 0903 · VALUATION DRIVERS
Expected Growth Sorts This Range More Cleanly than Margin Does
This page splits the rated names into faster- and slower-growth cohorts and into higher- and lower-margin cohorts, comparing median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) for each.
Splitting the rated names into faster- and slower-growth cohorts sorts this valuation range more cleanly than splitting them by margin does. Each cohort holds three names, and the split point sits at each variable's own covered median. That's an association we observe in the data, not a claim that growth causes the rating — but it's the cleaner sort of the two we tested. So what: growth, not margin, is the variable worth underwriting first when thinking about where a fleet's rating can move.
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03 · VALUATION DRIVERS Expected Growth Sorts This Range More Cleanly than Margin Does Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=3; slower n=3; higher-margin n=3; lower-margin n=3). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at 8% · EBITDA-margin split at 34% The Growth Line Is Where the Range Splits On the six names with a forward estimate, the three above 8% expected growth sit at a middle of 9.1x and the three below at 6.0x. The association is not uniform: Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS) sits at the top of the growth range at 19% and still prices in the discount tier. Margin Alone Does Not Sort the Range Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) at a 42% EBITDA margin and Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) at 20% sit in the same middle tier. EBITDA here is a pre-replacement-capex number, so two fleets printing similar margins can carry very different reinvestment needs. Fleet Age and Net Capex Sit Behind the Printed Numbers Gross fleet capex against net fleet capex, average fleet age and proceeds against net book value on disposals are what tell a buyer whether the earnings are being reinvested or harvested. Return on OEC and dollar utilization are the operating lines that carry that story into the multiple. End-Market Composition Is What the Bottom of the Range Holds Single end-market exposure, customer concentration and a softer secondary market are the detractors this sector's buyers price. Contracted lease books sit at the other pole, where the cash profile resembles asset financing and long-hold capital is a natural holder.
- 1003 · SITUATION MAP
Where the Money Sits: Forward Rating Against Fleet Margin
This page maps the rated names on a grid of EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) against EBITDA margin, cut at the sector median of 6.9x and the covered median margin of 34%.
We plot the rated names on a two-way grid: EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) against the sector median of 6.9x on one axis, and EBITDA margin against the covered median of 34% on the other. The boundaries are the cohort's own medians, and the placements are observations rather than recommendations. So what: this grid is where the growth-versus-margin question from the prior page becomes visible company by company.
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03 · SITUATION MAP Where the Money Sits: Forward Rating Against Fleet Margin Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (6.9x) (rows) and EBITDA margin vs the covered median (34%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Rated up, Margin Above the Middle Above-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 1 names United Rentals, Inc. (URI) United Rentals, Inc. (URI) is the one company on the page above both lines, on a 46% EBITDA margin and above the 6.9x middle. Scale, category breadth and national account penetration are the attributes that sit behind that position. Rated up, Margin Below the Middle Above-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 2 names Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) · NPK International Inc. (NPKI) Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) at a 20% margin and NPK International Inc. (NPKI) both price above the middle while earning below the 34% margin middle of the covered names. Buyers here appear to be paying for the growth and mix ahead rather than for today's margin. Margin Above the Middle, Rating Below Below-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 2 names Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) · Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS) Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) and Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS), the latter at a 47% margin, both earn above the margin middle and price below the rating middle. This is where the durability of the earnings, not their current size, is the open question. Both Below the Middle Below-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 1 names Ranger Energy Services, Inc. (RNGR) Ranger Energy Services, Inc. (RNGR) sits below both lines, at a 13% EBITDA margin. Work through utilization, rate and the mix of services on the fleet is what moves a position like this.
- 1103 · THE AGENDA
The Next Fleet Dollar Does Not Earn the Same Multiple Everywhere You Can Put It
This page frames the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve about where the next dollar of fleet capital earns the highest rating.
The next dollar put into a fleet doesn't earn the same multiple in every business line, and this page frames the questions worth resolving before deploying it — category mix, fleet age and reinvestment, branch density, and the contracted share of the book. These are NeuraCap's observations grounded in the cohort data shown across this section, not recommendations to act on any single name. So what: the answers to these four questions are what separate a rating that holds from one that doesn't.
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03 · THE AGENDA The Next Fleet Dollar Does Not Earn the Same Multiple Everywhere You Can Put It NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 Specialty Categories Alongside the General Rental Base The companies at the top of this range sell breadth, not a single category. Adding specialty lines to an existing branch footprint lifts dollar utilization on the same real estate and the same delivery routes, and it is the mix shift this sector's buyers have historically paid above the iron for. What changes the answer: Return on OEC by category: if specialty additions are not clearing the general fleet's return, the mix shift is not yet earning its capital. Reinvest the Fleet or Harvest the Residuals Average fleet age, gross against net fleet capex, and proceeds against net book value on disposals tell a buyer which of the two has been happening. EBITDA is a pre-replacement-capex number, so a fleet running old can print a comfortable margin while the reinvestment bill builds behind it. What changes the answer: Used equipment proceeds as a share of original cost moving up while fleet age also rises is the combination that gets diligence attention. Density in the Metro Beats Footprint on the Map Cost synergies in maintenance, logistics and procurement are what a fleet owner can underwrite in a market it already serves. That makes build-versus-buy a question about density in specific metros and basins, not about national coverage, and it is where the consolidators concentrate their capital. What changes the answer: Cold-start branch economics against the price of local density: when the second beats the first on return on OEC, the answer changes. Contracted Lease Term Against Spot Rate Upside The adjacent models in this set carry contracted cash profiles, and the oilfield fleets carry rate exposure. Shifting the balance of the book between the two changes both the cash profile and the type of capital that is a natural owner of the business. What changes the answer: Average remaining lease term and the share of OEC on contract versus on spot: a rising contracted share changes who the buyer pool is.
- 12SECTION 04
04
This divider introduces section four, covering precedent transactions across completed, pending, announced and terminated deals.
Section four turns to the transaction record: nine deals span completed, pending, announced and terminated status, and together they price fleet, branch density and contracted lease books. This is where we test what buyers have actually paid, rather than what the public market currently rates.
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SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS The Transaction Record Prices Fleet, Branch Density and Contracted Lease Books Nine transactions in the record, spanning completed, pending, announced and terminated. 04 of 06 Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12
- 1304 · DEAL CASE STUDIES
Buyers Have Been Pricing Fleet Transactions Across a Range, Not at One Number
This page walks through two case studies drawn from the 36 transactions with disclosed terms, showing multiples on LTM financials at announcement.
We walk through two case studies pulled from the 36 transactions with disclosed terms, each priced on LTM financials at the time of announcement. Deal multiples on this basis aren't directly comparable to the CY2027E public market basis used elsewhere in this report, so we don't claim a spread between the two. The complete transaction list sits in the appendix for anyone who wants the full record. So what: these two cases show buyers pricing fleet, branch density and lease books individually rather than applying one number across every deal.
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04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Buyers Have Been Pricing Fleet Transactions Across a Range, Not at One Number 2 of 36 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 120 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 28 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13 Nov-2021 $5.7B Thoma Bravo acquires Rail leasing business EV / LTM revenue 10.8x EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Transactions of this shape in machinery rental and leasing are typically about branch density and fleet in a metro or basin the acquirer already covers. The strategic fit rests on maintenance, logistics and procurement cost that a fleet operator can underwrite and a purely financial owner cannot. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Pricing in this sector is customarily framed as enterprise value to forward adjusted EBITDA, cross-referenced to fleet age, original equipment cost and appraised orderly liquidation value. Against the peer set, transactions in this record have been struck across the range rather than clustered at the top of the range. Jan-2024 $3.8B WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. acquires McGrath RentCorp EV / LTM revenue 4.6x EV / LTM EBITDA 11.7x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Contracted lease models attract buyers who want visibility of cash flow rather than rate upside, which is why infrastructure and long-hold capital appear alongside the rental consolidators in this sector. The fit here reads as fleet and lease book joining an owner that can finance assets against appraised value. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Value in this part of the market is tested against the contracted lease backlog and its average remaining term as much as against trailing earnings. The relevant benchmark is the forward EV / EBITDA range the listed set trades in, read alongside the debt capacity an asset-based borrowing base supports.
- 14SECTION 05
05
This divider introduces section five, covering the strategic implications of the comparable-company and transaction evidence.
Section five turns the comparable-company and transaction evidence into operating moves worth considering for the next fleet dollar deployed.
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SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS What the Evidence Means for the Next Fleet Dollar Operating moves the comparable-company and transaction evidence points toward. 05 of 06 Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14
- 1505 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Margin Quality Is What the Higher Forward Ratings Have in Common
This page sets out the strategic questions the evidence raises for the next twelve months, organized by margin quality's link to the higher forward ratings.
Margin quality is what the higher forward ratings have in common across this set, and this page turns that observation into questions worth resolving over the next twelve months. These are NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report — observations, not recommendations to buy or sell any name. So what: the operating levers here are the ones a fleet owner or operator can actually move, unlike the market rating itself.
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05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Margin Quality Is What the Higher Forward Ratings Have in Common NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15 FOR OWNERS The Rating Tracks Growth and Mix More than Margin On the six names with a forward estimate, the higher ratings sit with the faster growers and not with the higher-margin fleets. Category breadth, contracted term and density in the markets you already serve are the levers that move you along that axis. FOR OPERATORS Dollar Utilization Is Where Mix Decisions Show Up Rate against volume attribution, time and dollar utilization, and return on OEC by category are the operating lines that translate a mix decision into earnings. Keeping fleet age in a band the used equipment channel rewards is part of the same calculation. FOR BOARDS End-Market Concentration Is a Rating Question, Not Just a Risk One The two oilfield rental fleets on the page sit in the discount tier while the diversified fleet names sit above the middle. Diversifying the end-market mix of the fleet, and the contract shape behind it, addresses both the cyclicality and the rating.
- 16SECTION 06
06
This divider introduces section six, covering the full comparables universe, methodology and sources behind every figure in the report.
Section six closes the report with the full universe of comparables, the methodology behind every figure, and where each underlying disclosure can be found.
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SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16
- 1706 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)
Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier
This appendix page lists all nine comparable companies grouped by valuation tier, with six rated on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) and three not rated.
This page carries all nine comparable companies, grouped by valuation tier and shaded against the sector median of 6.9x — teal above, amber below. Six names carry an eligible EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) rating; the other three don't have an eligible multiple and are listed for completeness. So what: this is the full company-level detail behind every median and range shown earlier in the report.
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06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (6.9x); amber marks below · 6 rated companies; 3 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 6 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥8.8x · median 9.1x · 2 companies NPK International Inc. NPKI Ground protection and temporary worksite rentals $991M 9.2x 11% 26% 41 United Rentals, Inc. URI Diversified multi-category fleet rental and leasing $80.3B 9.1x 9% 46% 54 CORE — 5.3x–8.8x · median 6.9x · 2 companies Custom Truck One Source, Inc. CTOS Diversified multi-category fleet rental and leasing $3.8B 7.7x 5% 20% 28 Herc Holdings Inc. HRI Diversified multi-category fleet rental and leasing $14.0B 6.0x 8% 42% 52 DISCOUNT — <5.3x · median 4.4x · 2 companies Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. NGS Oilfield rental tools and production equipment fleets $636M 5.1x 19% 47% 67 Ranger Energy Services, Inc. RNGR Oilfield rental tools and production equipment fleets $409M 3.7x 8% 13% 23
- 1806 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
This appendix page lists the first 18 of 36 transactions with disclosed terms, sorted newest first.
This page carries the first 18 of the 36 transactions with disclosed terms, out of 64 recorded overall, sorted newest first. Multiples shown are on LTM financials at the time of announcement, and deal values link back to the underlying filing. So what: this is the transaction-level detail behind the pricing range discussed in section four.
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06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 36 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (64 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 120 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 28 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 36 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters May-2026 Global Net Lease, Inc. → Modiv Industrial, Inc. $535M n/a n/a Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL is not shown) acquired Modiv Industrial, Inc. at $535M, status completed. Industrial property and yard real estate sit alongside fleet ownership in this sector, and branch real estate is frequently monetised separately from the operating… May-2025 GATX Corporation → Wells Fargo Rail $4.4B n/a n/a GATX Corporation (GATX) and Wells Fargo Rail, recorded at $4.4B and pending. A contracted rail lease fleet is the shape of asset that long-hold capital has historically been comfortable owning, and the size puts it among the larger transactions in this record. Feb-2025 Mary Patricia B. Thompson → 1,072 n/a 0.7x 8.8x Mary Patricia B. Thompson and target 1,072, announced, recorded at 8.8x EBITDA. The multiple sits in the upper half of the transaction record shown here. Feb-2025 Thomas J. Galligan III → 1,072 n/a 0.7x 8.8x Thomas J. Galligan III and target 1,072, announced, recorded at 0.7x revenue. A revenue multiple below one on a fleet asset is where the asset-coverage cross-check earns its keep. Jan-2025 Herc Holdings Inc. → H&E Equipment Services, Inc. $3.9B 2.6x 6.1x Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) and H&E Equipment Services, Inc., recorded at $3.9B, 2.6x revenue and 6.1x EBITDA, status terminated. A consolidator buying a branch network is the classic route to metro density, and the multiple sits inside the range the listed set trades in. Jan-2025 n/a → McGrath RentCorp n/a n/a 9.6x McGrath RentCorp is recorded at 9.6x EBITDA, status terminated. Fleets with long average rental duration and steady utilization have been valued toward the upper part of this record. Jan-2025 n/a → Custom Truck One Source, Inc. n/a n/a 10.3x Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) is recorded at 10.3x EBITDA, status completed. Specialty categories and in-house remanufacturing capability are the attributes buyers in this sector pay above the iron for. Jan-2025 n/a → Herc Holdings Inc. n/a n/a 5.5x Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) is also recorded as a target at 5.5x EBITDA, status terminated. Two marks on one platform show how much the point in the cycle, and the fleet capex assumption behind it, moves the price. Jan-2025 n/a → United Rentals, Inc. $4.8B 3.2x 6.9x United Rentals, Inc. (URI) appears in the record at $4.8B and 3.2x revenue, status terminated. The revenue multiple is a reminder that in this sector the revenue line and the EBITDA line can sit far apart depending on fleet mix.
- 1906 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
This appendix page lists the remaining 18 of 36 transactions with disclosed terms, sorted newest first.
This page continues the list with the remaining 18 of the 36 transactions with disclosed terms, again sorted newest first with multiples on LTM financials at announcement. Deal values link back to the underlying filing for anyone who wants to verify a specific transaction. So what: together with the prior page, this is the complete disclosed-terms record behind the transaction findings.
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06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 36 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (64 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 120 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 28 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 36 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Jan-2025 n/a → Ashtead Group PLC n/a n/a 5.7x Jan-2025 n/a → McGrath RentCorp n/a n/a 9.6x Value shown as recorded in the filing; status defaulted announced. Apr-2024 United Rentals, Inc. → Yak Access, LLC, Yak Mat, LLC, New South Access & Environmental Solutions, LLC n/a 6.4x 6.4x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Jan-2024 WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. → McGrath RentCorp $3.8B 4.6x 11.7x Mar-2023 Schedule 13D Group → U-Haul Holding Company $14.5B n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved, financial target ev not meaningful. Nov-2022 United Rentals, Inc. → Ahern Rentals, Inc. n/a n/a 6.5x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Apr-2022 Manitex International, Inc. → Rabern Rentals n/a 6.1x 6.4x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Nov-2021 Thoma Bravo → Rail leasing business $5.7B 10.8x n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Jan-2021 I Squared Capital, TDR Capital IV → Aggreko Plc n/a 6.4x 6.4x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved.
- 2006 · METHODOLOGY
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality.
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. 20
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06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 20 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (6 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Machinery Rental and Leasing and it clears the coverage gate with 6 of 9 companies (67%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 6 of the 6 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 2 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 384 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (383) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.
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Across These Nine Fleets, the Higher Ratings Sat Alongside Faster Expected Growth.
This closing page restates the report's finding that higher ratings sat alongside faster expected growth across the nine fleets.
Across these nine fleets, the higher ratings sat alongside faster expected growth — that's the through-line of everything we've shown. The companion tables beside this deck carry the full universe, the exclusion ledger and the complete source index for any figure you want to trace.
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Across These Nine Fleets, the Higher Ratings Sat Alongside Faster Expected Growth. NeuraCap AI — Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Machinery Rental and Leasing Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 21
Sources and methodology
This report covers Machinery Rental and Leasing (Industrials › Capital Goods › Machinery Rental and Leasing) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 9 listed companies whose core business is Machinery Rental and Leasing according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS), GATX Corporation (GATX), Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI), Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS), NPK International Inc. (NPKI), Ranger Energy Services, Inc. (RNGR), Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN), U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL), United Rentals, Inc. (URI). The market map groups them by business vertical — Diversified multi-category fleet rental and leasing: 5 companies (URI, GATX, UHAL, HRI, CTOS); Oilfield rental tools and production equipment fleets: 2 companies (NGS, RNGR); Adjacent models: 2 companies (TRN, NPKI). 6 of the 9 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
Scope and company universe
This report covers Machinery Rental and Leasing (Industrials › Capital Goods › Machinery Rental and Leasing) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 9 listed companies whose core business is Machinery Rental and Leasing according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS), GATX Corporation (GATX), Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI), Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS), NPK International Inc. (NPKI), Ranger Energy Services, Inc. (RNGR), Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN), U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL), United Rentals, Inc. (URI). The market map groups them by business vertical — Diversified multi-category fleet rental and leasing: 5 companies (URI, GATX, UHAL, HRI, CTOS); Oilfield rental tools and production equipment fleets: 2 companies (NGS, RNGR); Adjacent models: 2 companies (TRN, NPKI). 6 of the 9 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
What was excluded and why
2 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (2 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: CTOS — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · CTOS — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)
Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen
Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (6 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Machinery Rental and Leasing and it clears the coverage gate with 6 of 9 companies (67%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 6 of the 6 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 6 of 9 companies; EV / rEVenue: 9 of 9 companies; P/E: 9 of 9 companies.
How the multiples and statistics are computed
Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥8.8x, Core 5.3x–8.8x, Discount <5.3x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 6.9x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) (6 rated companies) · 9.1x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=2) · 6.9x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Core tier (n=2) · 4.4x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=2) · 9.1x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth ≥ 8% (n=3) · 6.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth < 8% (n=3) · 6.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin ≥ 34% (n=3) · 7.7x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin < 34% (n=3) · 43% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=6)
Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why
The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Machinery Rental and Leasing recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 64 transactions were recorded for this industry; 36 are shown. 28 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 47 × deal value unit unresolved; 55 × no evidence record; 14 × duplicate precedent id; 2 × divestiture roles reassigned; 2 × financial target ev not meaningful. Case studies lead with the 2 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.
Sources
Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 28, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 388 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.
Interpretation and important notice
Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.
This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.
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