Logistics and Supply Chain Services Sector Outlook — September 2026

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INDUSTRIALS › TRANSPORTATION › LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN SERVICES

Logistics: The Market Pays for Earnings Quality, Not Speed

How this set of logistics networks is priced, what separates the premium end from the discount end, and what buyers have actually paid for.

September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Market data as of 2026-09-15 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E)

Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential

Sources & methodology

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   INDUSTRIALS › TRANSPORTATION › LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN SERVICES

   Cover slide introducing the Logistics and Supply Chain Services sector outlook as of September 2026.

   We open this outlook on the logistics and supply chain sector as of September 2026, built on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) as the primary valuation lens. What follows shows why one label covers three very differently priced businesses.

   Everything on this page

   INDUSTRIALS › TRANSPORTATION › LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN SERVICES Logistics: The Market Pays for Earnings Quality, Not Speed How this set of logistics networks is priced, what separates the premium end from the discount end, and what buyers have actually paid for. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-15 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 1

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   CONTENTS

   What This Report Covers

   Contents page listing the report's five sections plus appendix.

   We start with the bottom line so a client who reads only one section still gets the full argument. From there we move through the landscape, valuation and situations, the deal tape and strategic implications, each building toward what we'd act on next.

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   CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Earnings Quality, Not Top-Line Speed, Is What This Market Pays For 02 The Landscape One Sector Label, Several Genuinely Different Businesses 03 Valuation & Situations The Range Is Where the Negotiation Happens, Not the Single Multiple 04 The Deal Tape Buyers Kept Transacting Through the Cycle 05 Strategic Implications The Answer Depends on Which Half of the Market a Company Sits In 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 2

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   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE

   One Label, Three Businesses: Truckload and LTL, Multi-Modal Networks and Asset-Heavy Adjacent Models Are Priced Apart

   The bottom line: truckload/LTL, multi-modal networks and asset-heavy adjacent models are priced apart within one sector label.

   We find the premium end of this set priced at 14.6x EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) against 5.8x at the discount end, a spread that shows the market paying for durability rather than size. The faster-growing names actually sit in the cheaper half, at 7.8x versus 9.2x for the slower group, so speed is not what's being rewarded here. Margin without growth still commands 14.4x, well above the 7.2x for growth without margin, which tells us where the real separation sits. So the question for any owner in this set is which side of that divide their earnings profile falls on.

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   01 · THE BOTTOM LINE One Label, Three Businesses: Truckload and LTL, Multi-Modal Networks and Asset-Heavy Adjacent Models Are Priced Apart The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-15 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (13 of 22 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 3 1 The Best Earners Price Far Above the Cheapest Carriers Across the 13 companies with a CY2027E forward view, the premium end sits at 14.6x EV / EBITDA and the discount end at 5.8x. A forward multiple already credits the growth in the forecast, so a premium that survives it is the market paying for earnings it expects to hold. 2 The Faster Growers Sit in the Cheaper Half, Not the Dearer One On the 7 names growing above 7%, the middle of the range is 7.8x; on the 6 names below that mark it is 9.2x. Speed of revenue is not what this market is currently paying up for. 3 Margin Without Growth Still Clears a Full Price The 2 companies clearing the 14% margin bar without clearing the growth bar sit at 14.4x, against 7.2x for the 2 clearing growth alone. Margin, not volume, is where these businesses separate. 4 Half the Set Is Road Carriage, but the Top Price Sits Elsewhere Truckload and LTL carriage is 10 of the 22 companies, 45% of the set, and its forward pricing sits at 8.0x. The asset-heavy adjacent models — rail linehaul, temperature-controlled warehousing, fleet leasing and production-line supply — sit at 14.2x. 8.2x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 13 rated of 22 companies 14.6x Premium tier median vs 5.8x discount top quartile (n=3) against bottom quartile (n=3) — the spread the report explains 39 Recorded transactions in this tier told as case studies in the deal section; the full tape is in the appendix

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   02

   Divider introducing the sector's three business groups: truckload/LTL, multi-modal networks and asset-heavy adjacent models.

   We use this page to reset before mapping the sector into its three underlying business types. Each group carries a distinct price, and that's the frame for everything that follows.

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   SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE One Sector Label, Several Genuinely Different Businesses Truckload and LTL carriage, multi-modal freight networks and the asset-heavy adjacent models. 02 of 06 Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 4

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   02 · MARKET MAP

   Three Groups Under One Label, and the Asset-Heavy Adjacent Models Carry the Top Price

   Market map grouping 22 approved companies by business segment with median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) per group.

   We group all 22 approved companies into three segments and price each on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E). The asset-heavy adjacent models carry the top median at 14.2x, while truckload and LTL carriage sits at 8.0x. That gap is the clearest single fact in this sector: the label is one, the pricing is not. So the segment a company sits in matters more than its size.

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   02 · MARKET MAP Three Groups Under One Label, and the Asset-Heavy Adjacent Models Carry the Top Price 22 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-15 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 5 TRUCKLOAD AND LTL CARRIAGE 10 cos median 8.0x Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) Knight-Swift (KNX) Saia (SAIA) ArcBest (ARCB) Werner Enterprises (WERN) Marten Transport (MRTN) Covenant Logistics (CVLG) Pamt (PAMT) TFI International (TFII) XPO Logistics (XPO) The core of the set, where lane density, door count and operating ratio decide who earns through the cycle. MULTI-MODAL INTEGRATED FREIGHT NETWORKS 6 cos median 7.5x United Parcel Service (UPS) GXO FWRD Hub Group (HUBG) Cryoport (CYRX) SFWL Parcel, contract logistics and domestic intermodal, where net revenue quality and embedded customer operations carry the value. ADJACENT MODELS 6 cos median 14.2x Norfolk Southern (NSC) COLD PKOH Lyft (LYFT) R Strata Critical (SRTA) Rail linehaul, temperature-controlled warehousing, fleet leasing and production-line supply — real assets with contractual revenue.

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   02 · LANDSCAPE

   Nearly Half the Set Is Road Carriage, but the Higher Price Sits in the Adjacent Models

   Segment view showing truckload/LTL carriage is nearly half the universe, while the higher price sits with the adjacent models.

   We size the universe here: truckload and LTL carriage makes up 45% of the 22 companies we track, the single largest group. Yet the higher price sits elsewhere, with the asset-heavy adjacent models. That mismatch between scale and pricing is what a client needs to hold in mind before looking at any single name. So scale in this sector does not translate directly into premium pricing.

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   02 · LANDSCAPE Nearly Half the Set Is Road Carriage, but the Higher Price Sits in the Adjacent Models Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-15 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Truckload and LTL carriage 10 45% 8.0x Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) · Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) · +8 more Density and doors decide. Ten companies, 45% of the set, running less-than-truckload and truckload and dry van lanes. Forward pricing on the 6 with estimates sits at 8.0x, but the spread inside the group is wide: Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) prices at the top of the sector while Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN) and Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) sit at the bottom. Multi-modal integrated freight networks 6 27% 7.5x United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) · GXO · +4 more Capability at the customer interface. Six companies spanning parcel, contract logistics and domestic intermodal. Forward pricing on the 4 with estimates sits at 7.5x, the lowest of the three groups, with net revenue quality and embedded operations inside customer facilities — not gross billings — deciding who earns a better price. Adjacent models 6 27% 14.2x Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) · COLD · +4 more Real assets, contracted revenue. Six companies whose economics sit outside carriage: rail linehaul, temperature-controlled warehouse networks, fleet leasing and production-line supply. On the 3 with estimates the group prices at 14.2x, and it includes Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC), where regulated rail and contract cover replace spot exposure.

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   Divider introducing the valuation section: where each name sits on CY2027E EV/EBITDA and what separates the ends.

   We move now from the map to the range itself, sorting all rated companies on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E). What separates the top from the bottom of that range is the real negotiation point for any transaction in this sector.

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   SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Range Is Where the Negotiation Happens, Not the Single Multiple Where each name sits on CY2027E EV / EBITDA, and what separates the two ends. 03 of 06 Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 7

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   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION

   What Separates the Premium End from the Discount End — and It Is Not Size

   All 13 rated companies sorted on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), against a sector median of 8.2x.

   We sort all 13 rated companies on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) against a sector median of 8.2x. The premium end reaches 14.6x while the discount end sits at 5.8x, and that spread is not explained by size. It's explained by what a company earns and how durable that earning is. So the tier a company sits in is the starting point for any conversation about its value.

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   03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION What Separates the Premium End from the Discount End — and It Is Not Size EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 13 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 8.2x · as of 2026-09-15 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (13 of 22 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 14.6x CORE · median 8.2x DISCOUNT · median 5.8x Sector median 8.2x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top end sells durability. The 3 names at the premium end sit at 14.6x on CY2027E EV / EBITDA. Because a forward multiple already credits the growth in the forecast, a premium that survives it reads as the market paying for earnings it expects to hold through the freight cycle. The bottom end carries cycle risk. The 3 names at the discount end sit at 5.8x. What they share is more spot-exposed truckload and domestic intermodal work, where rate resets lag cost inflation and there is less contractual floor under the revenue. Size does not set the price. The largest company by enterprise value in this set prices in the middle tier rather than the premium tier, and sizeable carriers sit at the discount end too. On this evidence the higher price is associated with margin and contract cover, not with scale.

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   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS

   What the Higher Price Travels with: Margin, Contract Cover and Density

   Median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) split by revenue-growth cohort, showing faster growers priced below slower growers.

   We split the rated set into faster and slower revenue-growth cohorts and price each on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E). The faster cohort medians at 7.8x, the slower cohort at 9.2x — the opposite of what a simple growth story would predict. That association points to margin and contract cover as the real driver of price in this set, though we read it as association, not proof of cause. So a growth pitch alone will not carry a valuation argument here.

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   03 · VALUATION DRIVERS What the Higher Price Travels with: Margin, Contract Cover and Density Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort (split at the covered median, 7%) · rated names with growth estimates · as of 2026-09-15 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=7; slower n=6). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort Margin Tracks the Price; Revenue Speed Does Not On the 7 companies growing faster than 7% the median is 7.8x, against 9.2x on the 6 slower names. This is association in a small set, not proof that margin sets the price: the dearer group is weighted toward asset-heavy network operators, so business-model mix is doing part of the work. Contracted and Temperature-Controlled Freight Prices Above Spot Work The premium tier is built from networks with contractual, regulated or temperature-controlled revenue — rail linehaul, cold-storage capacity and a dense less-than-truckload franchise. The discount tier carries more spot-exposed truckload and thin-net-revenue brokerage work, where nothing floors the rate when the cycle turns. Door Count and Lane Density Show up in the Operating Ratio Inside truckload and LTL carriage the forward lens spans both the top and the bottom of the sector, on the 6 names there with estimates. Owned terminals, door count and headhaul and backhaul balance separate names within one segment more than the segment labels separate each other. Depreciation Is Real Cash, and Buyers Underwrite It EBITDA leads here because it travels across carriers, contract logistics and brokerage once capital structure is neutralised. Fleet replacement, dock and door maintenance and refrigeration plant still consume cash on a cycle, which is why buyers lease-adjust the earnings and cross-check on EBIT before pricing.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP

    Price and Growth Pull Apart: 3 Names Sit High on Both, 2 Sit Low on Both

    Situation map cutting rated companies on EV/EBITDA versus revenue growth against the sector's own medians.

    We cut the rated set on EV/EBITDA against the 8.2x sector median and on revenue growth against the 7% covered median. That grid separates names that are high on both measures from names that are low on both, and the names in between. This is an observation of where each company sits, not a recommendation to buy or sell. So it's the starting map for a deeper situation-specific conversation.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP Price and Growth Pull Apart: 3 Names Sit High on Both, 2 Sit Low on Both Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (8.2x) (rows) and revenue growth vs the covered median (7%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 10 Priced up and Growing Above-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 3 names Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) · Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) · Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) and Saia, Inc. (SAIA) price above the middle of the set and grow above it, and all 3 sit in truckload and LTL carriage. The live question for an owner here is whether density and operating ratio hold when tonnage per day softens. Priced up on Earnings, Not Speed Above-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 4 names Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) · GXO · COLD · +1 more Four names sit above the middle on price and below it on growth, including Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC), GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) and Americold Realty Trust (COLD). Contracted rail, contract logistics and temperature-controlled revenue is what the market is paying up for, and the test is whether that cover survives the renewal calendar. Growing but Priced Down Below-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 4 names ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) · Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN) · Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) · +1 more ArcBest Corporation (ARCB), Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN), Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) and Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) grow faster than the middle of the set but price below it. The growth is visible; what a buyer cannot yet underwrite is the margin behind it, and in spot-exposed truckload and domestic intermodal that is the harder half to evidence. Slower, and Priced Low Below-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 2 names United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) · FWRD The 2 names here, including United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), sit below the middle on both price and growth. In the largest integrated networks the equity story is earnings durability through the cycle rather than revenue speed, so cost structure and revenue mix are what move the price.

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    03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY

    Five Names Clear Both Bars, and the Margin-Only Pair Prices Highest

    Growth versus margin quadrant for the 13 rated companies, cut at the covered medians of 7% growth and 14% margin, with median EV/EBITDA per quadrant.

    We plot growth against margin for the 13 companies with both estimates, cut at the covered medians of 7% growth and 14% margin. The pair clearing margin alone prices at 14.4x, well above the 7.2x for the pair clearing growth alone. That's the clearest read yet that margin is the scarcer, better-rewarded quality in this set. So for any name in this cohort, margin durability is the first thing worth underwriting.

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    03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY Five Names Clear Both Bars, and the Margin-Only Pair Prices Highest Revenue growth (CY2027E, x-axis) vs EBITDA margin (CY2027E, y-axis) · 13 companies with both estimates · cuts at the covered medians (7% growth, 14% margin) · median EV/EBITDA per quadrant · as of 2026-09-15 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Quadrant cuts are the covered set's medians. Quadrant medians on names with a meaningful EV/EBITDA (balanced n=5; margin-only n=2; growth-only n=2; neither n=4). Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 11 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 10% 20% 30% 40% BALANCED median 8.2x MARGIN ONLY median 14.4x GROWTH ONLY median 7.2x NEITHER median 8.1x COLD FWRD UPS PKOH NSC GXO HUBG SAIA WERN ARCB ODFL KNX MRTN x: revenue growth (CY2027E) · y: EBITDA margin (CY2027E) HOW TO READ THIS The cuts are 7% revenue growth and a 14% margin. Five names clear both — Saia, Inc. (SAIA), Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN), Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) and Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) — and they price at 8.2x. The 2 clearing margin alone sit at 14.4x, the 2 clearing growth alone at 7.2x, the 4 clearing neither at 8.1x. Read these as direction, not proof.

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    03 · THE AGENDA

    Four Questions This Data Puts in Front of an Owner

    Four questions this data puts in front of an owner, framed as observations rather than recommendations.

    We turn the valuation evidence into four questions any owner in this sector should be able to answer. These are framed as questions to resolve, not conclusions to accept, because the right answer depends on where a specific business sits in the map we've just built. So the next section works through what buyers have actually paid for, which sharpens each of these questions.

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    03 · THE AGENDA Four Questions This Data Puts in Front of an Owner NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 12 How Much of the Revenue Has a Contractual Floor The premium end of this set is built from networks with contracted, regulated or temperature-controlled freight. For a mixed book the question is what share of revenue carries rate escalators and dedicated commitments, and what share reprices with the spot market each season. What changes the answer: Dedicated and contract share of revenue, and the renewal outcomes at the next bid season. Is Density Being Added Where the Doors Already Are Inside truckload and LTL carriage the forward lens spans the sector's top and bottom, on the 6 names there with estimates. Lane density, owned doors and headhaul and backhaul balance are what separate them, which puts terminal and cross-dock footprint ahead of route count as the value question. What changes the answer: Operating ratio movement as tonnage per day and weight per shipment shift. Does the Margin Story Survive a Lease-Adjusted, EBIT Cross-Check EBITDA is the lead convention because it travels across carriers, contract logistics and brokerage. Buyers still cross-check on EBIT, because fleet replacement, dock maintenance and refrigeration plant consume cash on a cycle, so where maintenance capex sits decides whether a margin claim holds. What changes the answer: Fleet age and deferred maintenance capex measured against the replacement cadence. Build the Capability or Buy It at the Customer Interface The tape shows buyers paying for embedded customer operations and terminal position rather than incremental fleet, from UK contract logistics to North American intermodal terminal services. The owner's choice is whether a capability gap closes faster through internal start-up or through acquisition. What changes the answer: The cost and ramp of a new contract logistics start-up against what comparable capability has changed hands for.

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    04

    Divider introducing the deal tape: nine disclosed transactions framing who pays and for what.

    We turn now to the deal tape itself, where nine disclosed transactions show us who has been paying and for what kind of business. The pattern there tests whether the public-market pricing story holds up in real transactions.

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    SECTION 04 04 THE DEAL TAPE Buyers Kept Transacting Through the Cycle Nine disclosed transactions frame who pays and for what. 04 of 06 Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 13

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES

    Nine Disclosed Deals: Doors, Cold Chain, Carve-Outs and the Property Underneath

    Nine disclosed deals reviewed as case studies covering doors, cold chain, carve-outs and property, drawn from a wider 39-transaction tape.

    We walk through nine disclosed deals out of a wider 39-transaction tape, covering terminal doors, cold chain, corporate carve-outs and standalone property. Deal multiples here are struck on LTM financials at announcement, so we don't claim a direct spread against the CY2027E public basis. What comes through is which capabilities buyers have actually paid up for. So the tape reads as confirmation, not contradiction, of what the public market is pricing.

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Nine Disclosed Deals: Doors, Cold Chain, Carve-Outs and the Property Underneath 3 of 39 recorded transactions, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete tape is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-15 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 74 tape record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate filings collapsed); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 27 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the tape and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 14 Oct-2024 $194M Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. adds rail terminal services with Parsec Companies at $194M. EV / LTM revenue 0.8x EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Parsec Companies' intermodal terminal operations sit next to the buyer's drayage and dedicated contract carriage in lanes it already serves. The structure suggests a buyer adding capability at the customer interface rather than incremental tractors and trailers. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The deal is recorded at 0.8x revenue, with no earnings multiple disclosed, announced October 2024. A revenue multiple at that level is consistent with a services business whose earnings sit in a thin net revenue layer rather than in gross billings. Aug-2024 $1.5B Undisclosed buyer The Birmingham unit (unit of Green Plains Inc.) changes hands at $1.5B, the fullest disclosed price on this tape. EV / LTM revenue 0.5x EV / LTM EBITDA 17.1x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED An undisclosed buyer is recorded acquiring the unit as a divestiture from a corporate parent, announced August 2024. The structure suggests capital buying an asset substrate and its contracted throughput rather than an operating platform; the filing does not set out the buyer's rationale. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Recorded at 17.1x EBITDA and 0.5x revenue. That earnings multiple sits above the premium end of the public set on CY2027E, which is the kind of gap real-asset and infrastructure buyers have been willing to pay for contracted storage. Feb-2024 $967M GXO Logistics, Inc. GXO Logistics, Inc. closes Wincanton plc at $967M, buying a UK contract logistics franchise rather than building one. EV / LTM revenue 0.5x EV / LTM EBITDA 11.9x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED The acquirer completed the purchase of a UK contract logistics operator in a market where it already competes. The closed status and the scale suggest a buyer paying for embedded customer operations and density it could not assemble at the same speed internally. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Disclosed at 11.9x EBITDA and 0.5x revenue. That sits above where the middle of the public set prices on CY2027E and below the premium end — the band where capability-led contract logistics has been clearing.

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    05

    Divider introducing strategic implications, which depend on which half of the market a company sits in.

    We close the analysis by turning the valuation and deal evidence into operating implications, read by audience. Where a company sits in this market decides which lever is actually available to it.

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    SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS The Answer Depends on Which Half of the Market a Company Sits In Operating moves the data supports, read by audience. 05 of 06 Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 15

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

    The Lever Here Is Mix and Density, Not the Freight Cycle

    Strategic implications: the lever available to owners, acquirers and capital providers is mix and density, not the freight cycle.

    We read the evidence as pointing to mix and density as the controllable lever here, not the freight cycle itself. For owners that means revenue quality — contract cover, accessorial capture, yield — over chasing volume. For acquirers and capital providers, it means the deal tape's emphasis on terminal position and customer-facing capability over incremental fleet. So the next twelve months are about where a business sits on that mix, not about waiting out the cycle.

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS The Lever Here Is Mix and Density, Not the Freight Cycle NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 16 FOR OWNERS Margin Mix Is the Lever You Hold; Freight Demand Is Not Across this set the higher forward pricing travels with margin and contract cover rather than faster revenue. That points the work at revenue quality — dedicated and contract share, accessorial capture, fuel pass-through and yield — rather than at pushing more volume through the same lanes. FOR STRATEGIC ACQUIRERS Doors, Density and Cross-Border Reach Are What This Tape Rewards The transactions here cluster around terminal position, intermodal terminal services and contract logistics franchises — capability bought at the customer interface. Where the value case is network fit, the plan for terminal rationalisation and system cutover carries as much of the return as the entry price. FOR PRIVATE CAPITAL The Asset-Light End Converts Cash Without Fleet Capex Brokerage, managed transportation and value-added warehousing sit toward the lower end of the forward range in this set, where net revenue quality rather than gross billings decides the earnings. A fragmented owner-operator base suits platform-and-bolt-on building, with claims tail and driver classification priced in.

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    06

    Divider introducing the appendix: the full comparables set, deal tape, methodology and sources.

    We close with the full universe behind every figure in the body of this report — the comparables set, the complete deal tape and the methodology. This is where a client can trace any number back to its source.

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    SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 17

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier

    Full comparables table for the universe, showing 13 rated companies against a sector median of 8.2x and 9 companies without an eligible multiple.

    We lay out the full comparables set here: 13 companies carry a rated EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) against the 8.2x sector median, and 9 sit without an eligible multiple. Every rated row links back to its underlying source. This is the reference table behind every chart earlier in the report. So any figure a client wants to verify starts on this page.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (8.2x); amber marks below · 13 rated companies; 9 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-15 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 13 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 18 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥12.8x · median 14.6x · 3 companies Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. ODFL Truckload and LTL carriage $37.6B 16.9x 8% 35% 43 COLD COLD Temperature-controlled warehouse networks $8.6B 14.6x 0% 23% 24 Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC Rail linehaul and carload networks $87.5B 14.2x 4% 45% 49 CORE — 7.1x–12.8x · median 8.2x · 7 companies Saia, Inc. SAIA Truckload and LTL carriage $9.9B 12.8x 7% 20% 27 GXO GXO Multi-modal integrated freight networks $10.6B 10.1x 5% 7% 12 PKOH PKOH Production-line supply chain and vendor-managed inventory $1.3B 8.2x 4% 9% 13 Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. KNX Truckload and LTL carriage $13.5B 8.2x 8% 19% 27 United Parcel Service, Inc. UPS Multi-modal integrated freight networks $106B 7.9x 4% 14% 18 ArcBest Corporation ARCB Truckload and LTL carriage $3.6B 7.8x 8% 10% 17 FWRD FWRD Multi-modal integrated freight networks $2.5B 7.1x 1% 14% 15 DISCOUNT — <7.1x · median 5.8x · 3 companies Hub Group, Inc. HUBG Multi-modal integrated freight networks $2.4B 6.6x 7% 9% 16 Marten Transport, Ltd. MRTN Truckload and LTL carriage $1.1B 5.8x 10% 19% 29 Werner Enterprises, Inc. WERN Truckload and LTL carriage $3.2B 5.8x 7% 14% 22

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)

    The Full Deal Tape, Newest First

    First half of the full 39-transaction deal tape, newest first, with multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed.

    We list the deal tape here in full, 39 recorded transactions in total, newest first. Multiples shown are on LTM financials at announcement, where disclosed, and every deal value links to its underlying filing. This is the primary evidence behind the case studies and the strategic reads earlier in the deck. So a client can check any single transaction against its original source.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) The Full Deal Tape, Newest First 39 recorded transactions in this tier · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-15 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 74 tape record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate filings collapsed); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 27 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the tape and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 39 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Jul-2025 Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. → Solistica $218M n/a n/a Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. is recorded as acquirer of Solistica at $218M, announced July 2025. Cross-border Mexican networks keep drawing corporate buyers; value is shown as recorded in the filing, with no multiple disclosed. Jun-2025 Lineage → Tyson Foods $247M n/a n/a Lineage is recorded acquiring Tyson Foods assets at $247M in June 2025. Temperature-controlled capacity attached to a food shipper's programme is capability a buyer takes on rather than builds, and occupancy is the variable that decides the return. Oct-2024 Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. → Parsec Companies $194M 0.8x n/a Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. is recorded acquiring Parsec Companies at $194M in October 2024. Intermodal terminal work sits directly alongside drayage and dedicated contract carriage, where door access and lane density decide the economics. Aug-2024 Undisclosed buyer → Birmingham unit (unit of Green Plains Inc.) $1.5B 0.5x 17.1x An undisclosed buyer is recorded acquiring the Birmingham unit (unit of Green Plains Inc.) at $1.5B, announced August 2024. It is the largest disclosed value on this tape, and it prices storage and logistics infrastructure rather than an operating carrier. Jun-2024 RXO, Inc. → UPS freight brokerage and UK logistics assets $1.0B n/a n/a RXO, Inc. is recorded acquiring UPS freight brokerage and UK logistics assets for $1.0B in June 2024. Carve-outs of non-core logistics arms recur through every cycle, and brokerage scale is bought for carrier procurement and tender data rather than for fleet. Jun-2024 Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico S.A.B. de C.V. → Guadalajara World Trade Center, S.A. de C.V. $93M n/a n/a Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico S.A.B. de C.V. is recorded acquiring Guadalajara World Trade Center, S.A. de C.V. at $93M in June 2024. Real estate and infrastructure buyers compete for the substrate under logistics operations, often pricing the property separately from the operating business. Feb-2024 GXO Logistics, Inc. → Wincanton plc $967M 0.5x 11.9x GXO Logistics, Inc. acquired Wincanton plc for $967M, the largest closed transaction on this tape. Contract logistics is bought for operations embedded inside customer facilities and for a UK customer franchise that would take years to assemble. Dec-2023 Saia, Inc. → Yellow Corporation $236M n/a n/a Saia, Inc. closed on Yellow Corporation assets at $236M in December 2023. In less-than-truckload the value case is door count and terminal position in constrained markets, which is what a terminal portfolio delivers to an expanding network. Nov-2023 Americold Realty Trust, Inc. → Safeway Freezers $37M n/a n/a Americold Realty Trust, Inc. is recorded acquiring Safeway Freezers at $37M in November 2023. Freezer facilities attached to a grocery programme add occupancy to an existing network, where utilisation rather than square footage sets the return.

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)

    The Full Deal Tape, Newest First

    Second half of the full 39-transaction deal tape, continuing newest first.

    We continue the same 39-transaction tape here, still newest first and still linked to the underlying filings. Taken together with the prior page, this is the complete disclosed record behind the deal evidence in this report. So nothing in the case studies or the strategic read rests on a transaction a client can't trace.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) The Full Deal Tape, Newest First 39 recorded transactions in this tier · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-15 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-15; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 74 tape record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate filings collapsed); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 27 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the tape and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 39 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 20 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Sep-2023 Alibaba Group Holding Limited → Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Limited $94M n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Sep-2023 GXO Logistics, Inc. → PFSweb, Inc. $181M n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Sep-2023 Undisclosed buyer → Logistics and Supply Chain Management Business $356M 2.4x n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved, divestiture roles reassigned, status defaulted announced. Apr-2023 Ultrapar Holdings Inc. → Opla Logística Avançada $95M n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved, status defaulted announced. Jun-2022 Undisclosed buyer → Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. $458M n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; divestiture roles reassigned, parent financials detached. May-2022 Shopify Inc. → Deliverr, Inc. $2.1B n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved, status defaulted announced. Mar-2022 JD Logistics, Inc. → Deppon Logistics Co., Ltd. $2.1B n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved, status defaulted announced. Feb-2022 GXO Logistics, Inc. → Clipper Logistics plc $1.1B 1.2x 18.8x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved, status defaulted announced. Jan-2022 J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. → Zenith Logistics $86M n/a n/a Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved.

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    06 · METHODOLOGY

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality

    Methodology page covering sources, assumptions and data-quality treatment for the report.

    We set out here exactly how this report was built: the sources, the valuation basis and what was excluded and why. This is the page to check before relying on any figure elsewhere in the deck. So the analysis stands on a fully disclosed method, not a black box.

    Everything on this page

    06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-15 Typeface note: NeuraCap brand face is Kallisto Medium; this build renders in a standard sans (Arial) and should be reviewed in the brand face before external distribution. Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential 21 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (13 of 22 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Logistics and Supply Chain Services and it clears the coverage gate with 18 of 22 companies (82%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 15 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 776 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (775) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.

22. 22
    In This Set, Durable Earnings Price Above Faster Revenue.

    NeuraCap AI — Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage

    Closing page summarizing the report's conclusion: durable earnings price above faster revenue in this set.

    We close on the finding that carries through every page of this report: in this set, durable earnings price above faster revenue. The companion tables alongside this deck carry the full universe and source index for any figure a client wants to trace. That's the basis for the conversation we'd want to have next.

    Everything on this page

    In This Set, Durable Earnings Price Above Faster Revenue. NeuraCap AI — Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Logistics and Supply Chain Services Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential Sources & methodology 22

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