Infrastructure Construction Sector Outlook — September 2026
NeuraCap's Infrastructure Construction sector outlook: who plays, how the market prices them, what has transacted, and what it means for owners, operators and acquirers.
Key figures
- 7.6x
- Sector median EV/EBITDA
- 12.3x
- Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 6.1x at the discount end
- 6
- Transactions with disclosed terms
Read the report
1 / 21 · Infrastructure Construction: Where the Premium Sits Today
Executive summary
Infrastructure Construction prices as one band with two ends. Heavy civil prime contractors and program delivery make up the bulk of the set and price close to the adjacent names in wellsite water services, processing equipment and rail products; the wide gap sits between the top and the bottom of the range rather than between the two groups.
Key findings
- The Band Through the Middle of the Set Is Narrow
- Margin Held Through the Build Sits at the Top of the Range
- Faster Growth on Its Own Tracks Close to the Rest of the Set
- Recurring Revenue Travels With Higher Pricing Than Hard-Bid Heavy Civil
What each page shows
The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.
- 01INDUSTRIALS › CAPITAL GOODS › INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION
Infrastructure Construction: Where the Premium Sits Today
Infrastructure Construction: Where the Premium Sits Today.
Cover — Infrastructure Construction sector insights, September 2026. Prepared by NeuraCap AI; market data as of 2026-09-28; primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E). The framing line carries the deck's finding with the figures stripped. 1
Everything on this page
INDUSTRIALS › CAPITAL GOODS › INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION Infrastructure Construction: Where the Premium Sits Today Where the forward earnings multiple sits across nine listed names, what separates the top of the range from the bottom, and what buyers agreed to pay in the recorded transactions. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1
- 02CONTENTS
What This Report Covers
What This Report Covers.
Contents — the report runs 5 numbered sections plus the appendix: the bottom line, the landscape, valuation & situations, precedent transactions, strategic implications. The Bottom Line comes first by design: a reader who stops after section 01 still leaves with the whole story. 2
Everything on this page
CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Infrastructure Construction: Heavy Civil and the Adjacent Names Price Close, the Two Ends Far Apart 02 The Landscape Six Heavy Civil Contractors Carry the Set, and Three Adjacent Names Sit Beside Them 03 Valuation & Situations The Top of the Range Sits with the Names Holding Margin Through the Build 04 Precedent Transactions What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Specialty Capability and Materials Positions 05 Strategic Implications Three Moves Available Between Funding Cycles 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2
- 0301 · THE BOTTOM LINE
Infrastructure Construction: Heavy Civil Delivery and the Adjacent Names Price Close, the Two Ends of the Set Far Apart
Infrastructure Construction: Heavy Civil Delivery and the Adjacent Names Price Close, the Two Ends of the Set Far Apart.
Infrastructure Construction: Heavy Civil Delivery and the Adjacent Names Price Close, the Two Ends of the Set Far Apart The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (8 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. 3
Everything on this page
01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Infrastructure Construction: Heavy Civil Delivery and the Adjacent Names Price Close, the Two Ends of the Set Far Apart The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (8 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 The Band Through the Middle of the Set Is Narrow Half of the 8 names with a forward estimate fall between 7.2x and 9.0x forward EBITDA on CY2027E. A forward multiple already credits the earnings ramp, so movement inside that band is an argument about earnings quality rather than about the size of the order book. 2 Margin Held Through the Build Sits at the Top of the Range The two names at the top, Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) and L.B. Foster Company (FSTR), sit at 12.3x against 6.1x for the two at the bottom, Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE) and Shimmick Corp. (SHIM). On a forward lens that already credits forecast growth, a premium that survives it is associated with earnings durability rather than with the forecast alone. 3 Faster Growth on Its Own Tracks Close to the Rest of the Set Split at 8% revenue growth, the faster four of the 8 names with a forward estimate sit at 7.6x and the slower four at 7.8x — close to level. Growth is closer to table stakes in this set; the two ends separate on something other than the top line. 4 Recurring Revenue Travels with Higher Pricing than Hard-Bid Heavy Civil The adjacent names — wellsite water services, asphalt and aggregates processing equipment, and rail infrastructure products — sit at 8.4x against 7.5x for the 5 heavy civil names with a forward estimate. Revenue that renews rather than being rebid at each letting is associated with the higher end of that pricing gap in this set. 7.6x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 8 rated of 9 companies 12.3x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 6.1x at the discount end top quartile (n=2) against bottom quartile (n=2) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 6 Transactions with disclosed terms 18 recorded in this tier · 1 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix
- 04SECTION 02
02
02.
Section 02 of 06 — Six Heavy Civil Contractors Carry the Set, and Three Adjacent Names Sit Beside Them. Who is in the set and what each group actually does. Use this divider to reset the room before the section's pages; the progress dots show where the argument stands. 4
Everything on this page
SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Six Heavy Civil Contractors Carry the Set, and Three Adjacent Names Sit Beside Them Who is in the set and what each group actually does. 02 of 06 Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4
- 0502 · MARKET MAP
Heavy Civil Delivery Holds the Bulk of the Set and Prices Below the Adjacent Group
Heavy Civil Delivery Holds the Bulk of the Set and Prices Below the Adjacent Group.
Heavy Civil Delivery Holds the Bulk of the Set and Prices Below the Adjacent Group 9 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. 5
Everything on this page
02 · MARKET MAP Heavy Civil Delivery Holds the Bulk of the Set and Prices Below the Adjacent Group 9 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 HEAVY CIVIL PRIME CONTRACTORS AND PROGRAM DELIVERY 6 cos median 7.5x Sterling (STRL) Construction (ROAD) Granite (GVA) Fluor (FLR) Orion Group (ORN) Shimmick (SHIM) Six of the nine names win work through lettings and self-perform the critical path, so their earnings track funded public programs and estimate-at-completion discipline. ADJACENT MODELS 3 cos median 8.4x Select Water (WTTR) Astec Industries (ASTE) L.B. Foster (FSTR) Three names sell services, equipment and products into the same programs, with revenue that behaves more like recurring service work than lump-sum construction risk.
- 0602 · LANDSCAPE
The Bulk of the Set Bids the Work; The Adjacent Three Sell into the Same Programs
The Bulk of the Set Bids the Work; The Adjacent Three Sell into the Same Programs.
The Bulk of the Set Bids the Work; The Adjacent Three Sell into the Same Programs Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. 6
Everything on this page
02 · LANDSCAPE The Bulk of the Set Bids the Work; The Adjacent Three Sell into the Same Programs Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Heavy civil prime contractors and program delivery 6 67% 7.5x Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) · Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD) · +4 more Six names, the reference price. This group is 67% of the set, and the 5 of its names with a forward estimate carry a median of 7.5x forward EBITDA. It is where backlog quality, self-perform content on critical path scopes and the claims tail separate one name from the next. Adjacent models 3 33% 8.4x Select Water Solutions, Inc. (WTTR) · Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE) · +1 more Three names, priced higher. The adjacent group is 33% of the set — wellsite water services, asphalt and aggregates processing equipment, and rail infrastructure products — and 3 of the 3 carry a forward estimate, at a median of 8.4x. Revenue that renews rather than being rebid is the common thread.
- 07SECTION 03
03
03.
Section 03 of 06 — The Top of the Range Sits with the Names Holding Margin Through the Build. All nine names are on the page, and 8 of them carry a forward estimate on CY2027E EBITDA. Use this divider to reset the room before the section's pages; the progress dots show where the argument stands. 7
Everything on this page
SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Top of the Range Sits with the Names Holding Margin Through the Build All nine names are on the page, and 8 of them carry a forward estimate on CY2027E EBITDA. 03 of 06 Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7
- 0803 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION
The Two Ends of the Set Price Far Apart, and Margin Sits with the Top
The Two Ends of the Set Price Far Apart, and Margin Sits with the Top.
The Two Ends of the Set Price Far Apart, and Margin Sits with the Top EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 8 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 7.6x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (8 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. 8
Everything on this page
03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION The Two Ends of the Set Price Far Apart, and Margin Sits with the Top EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 8 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 7.6x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (8 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 12.3x CORE · median 7.6x DISCOUNT · median 6.1x Sector median 7.6x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top prices on durability. The two names at the premium end sit at a median of 12.3x forward EBITDA. Because the lens is forward, the forecast ramp is already in the price, so a premium that survives it is associated with earnings the market expects to repeat rather than with one strong year. The discount end prices variance. The two names at the bottom sit at a median of 6.1x. One of them is among the faster-growing names in the set, so the discount sits alongside something other than the growth line — contract type, margin level and the risk carried on open jobs. Four names hold the middle. Between the ends, 4 of the 8 names with a forward estimate sit in the core band: Select Water Solutions, Inc. (WTTR), Fluor Corporation (FLR), Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) and Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN). Inside that band the differences sit alongside contract mix and estimate-at-completion record.
- 0903 · VALUATION DRIVERS
Profitability Separates the Two Ends: Names Above the 9% Margin Line Carry 7.9x Against 7.5x Below It
Profitability Separates the Two Ends: Names Above the 9% Margin Line Carry 7.9x Against 7.5x Below It.
Profitability Separates the Two Ends: Names Above the 9% Margin Line Carry 7.9x Against 7.5x Below It Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=4; slower n=4; higher-margin n=4; lower-margin n=4). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. 9
Everything on this page
03 · VALUATION DRIVERS Profitability Separates the Two Ends: Names Above the 9% Margin Line Carry 7.9x Against 7.5x Below It Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=4; slower n=4; higher-margin n=4; lower-margin n=4). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at 8% · EBITDA-margin split at 9% The Growth Split Lands Close to Flat Split at 8% revenue growth, the faster four of the 8 names with a forward estimate carry a median of 7.6x forward EBITDA and the slower four 7.8x. Across this set and this single run, the forward multiple is close to level on either side of the growth line. The Premium End Pairs Its Multiple with Margin Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) sits at the top of the range on a 22% EBITDA margin, against 4% for Shimmick Corp. (SHIM) at the discount end. Holding margin while revenue ramps is what the upper end of this range sits alongside. Funded Backlog and Self-Perform Content Stand Behind the Durability Argument Backlog sits outside this pricing data, and it is where owners hold the most control: funded public work with credit-quality owners, high self-perform content on critical path scopes, and a clean estimate-at-completion record are what make a forward earnings ramp look repeatable.
- 1003 · SITUATION MAP
Where the Money Sits: Two Names Hold Each Corner of Price and Growth
Where the Money Sits: Two Names Hold Each Corner of Price and Growth.
Where the Money Sits: Two Names Hold Each Corner of Price and Growth Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (7.6x) (rows) and revenue growth vs the covered median (8%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. 10
Everything on this page
03 · SITUATION MAP Where the Money Sits: Two Names Hold Each Corner of Price and Growth Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (7.6x) (rows) and revenue growth vs the covered median (8%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Priced for the Ramp Above-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 2 names Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) · Fluor Corporation (FLR) Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) and Fluor Corporation (FLR) sit above the middle on both the forward multiple and revenue growth. The work here is converting the order book without margin fade, because the price already credits the ramp. Paid for Durability Above-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 2 names Select Water Solutions, Inc. (WTTR) · L.B. Foster Company (FSTR) Select Water Solutions, Inc. (WTTR) and L.B. Foster Company (FSTR) carry above-middle multiples on below-middle growth. That combination points to earnings treated as repeatable — recurring service and product revenue rather than job-by-job rebidding. Growth Awaiting Proof Below-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 2 names Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) · Shimmick Corp. (SHIM) Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) and Shimmick Corp. (SHIM) grow faster than the middle of the set on below-middle multiples. Both positions turn on evidence: margin held through the build and a clean estimate-at-completion record are what the discount gets tested against. Mix Is the Lever Below-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 2 names Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE) · Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE) and Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) sit below the middle on both measures. For a business in this position the lever is mix — self-perform content, contract type and which end-markets the capacity serves.
- 1103 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY
Growth with Margin Sits at the Top; Growth on Its Own Sits Below the Middle
Growth with Margin Sits at the Top; Growth on Its Own Sits Below the Middle.
Growth with Margin Sits at the Top; Growth on Its Own Sits Below the Middle Revenue growth (CY2027E, x-axis) vs EBITDA margin (CY2026E, y-axis) · 8 companies with both estimates · cuts at the covered medians (8% growth, 9% margin) · median EV/EBITDA per quadrant · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Quadrant cuts are the covered set's medians. Quadrant medians on names with a meaningful EV/EBITDA (balanced n=2; margin-only n=2; growth-only n=2; neither n=2). 11
Everything on this page
03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY Growth with Margin Sits at the Top; Growth on Its Own Sits Below the Middle Revenue growth (CY2027E, x-axis) vs EBITDA margin (CY2026E, y-axis) · 8 companies with both estimates · cuts at the covered medians (8% growth, 9% margin) · median EV/EBITDA per quadrant · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Quadrant cuts are the covered set's medians. Quadrant medians on names with a meaningful EV/EBITDA (balanced n=2; margin-only n=2; growth-only n=2; neither n=2). Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 5% 10% 15% 20% 5% 10% 15% 20% MARGIN ONLY median 7.7x BALANCED median 10.5x NEITHER median 9.2x GROWTH ONLY median 6.4x FSTR WTTR ASTE ORN GVA FLR SHIM STRL x: revenue growth (CY2027E) · y: EBITDA margin (CY2026E) HOW TO READ THIS Read it as two bars: revenue growth above the covered middle, and an EBITDA margin above 9%. On the 8 names with a forward estimate, 2 clear both — Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) and Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) — and that pair carries a median of 10.5x forward EBITDA. The 2 that clear growth without the margin bar sit at 6.4x, while the 2 that clear neither sit at 9.2x. Rule of 40 (revenue growth + EBITDA margin ≥ 40%): 1 of 8 names clear it (STRL).
- 1203 · THE AGENDA
Mix, Margin or Materials: Which Route the Pricing Favours
Mix, Margin or Materials: Which Route the Pricing Favours.
Mix, Margin or Materials: Which Route the Pricing Favours NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. 12
Everything on this page
03 · THE AGENDA Mix, Margin or Materials: Which Route the Pricing Favours NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12 Which Revenue Renews, and Which Is Rebid Every Year Separate work that renews — service, maintenance, products, materials volume — from work that goes back to a low-bid letting. In this set, the upper end of the range sits alongside revenue that repeats. What changes the answer: A shift in the renewing share of revenue, or a change in contract mix between lump-sum and cost-reimbursable work. How Much of the Critical Path You Self-Perform Decide which scopes you own with your own crews and spreads and which you sublet. Self-perform content on critical path work is where margin holds when a schedule slips, and it is the capability buyers in this record reached for. What changes the answer: Subcontracted content rising on your largest open jobs, or craft availability limiting which scopes you can bid. Materials Integration Against Fleet Renewal Capital can go into hot-mix asphalt plants, permitted reserves and materials logistics, or into replacing an aged fleet. In the recorded transactions here, vertically integrated paving and materials sat at the upper end while an equipment and products asset was recorded far lower. What changes the answer: Reserve life or plant network gaps in your densest corridors, or a fleet age that starts demanding catch-up capital spend. The Legacy Lump-Sum Jobs and the Claims Tail Unresolved fixed-price work and open claims sit in the way of an earnings ramp being taken at face value. Working that tail down changes what buyers and surety providers see when they look at your earnings. What changes the answer: Estimate-at-completion revisions on the largest open contracts, or a claim settling above or below the carried position.
- 13SECTION 04
04
04.
Section 04 of 06 — What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Specialty Capability and Materials Positions. Several of the recorded transactions are announced rather than completed. Use this divider to reset the room before the section's pages; the progress dots show where the argument stands. 13
Everything on this page
SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS What Buyers Agreed to Pay for Specialty Capability and Materials Positions Several of the recorded transactions are announced rather than completed. 04 of 06 Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13
- 1404 · DEAL CASE STUDIES
What Buyers Agreed to Pay: A Thin Record, Priced Across Specialty Capability and Materials
What Buyers Agreed to Pay: A Thin Record, Priced Across Specialty Capability and Materials.
What Buyers Agreed to Pay: A Thin Record, Priced Across Specialty Capability and Materials 1 of 6 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 23 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; no evidence record); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 12 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings);
Everything on this page
04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES What Buyers Agreed to Pay: A Thin Record, Priced Across Specialty Capability and Materials 1 of 6 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 23 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; no evidence record); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 12 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14 Feb-2026 $1.5B Saltchuk Resources, Inc. Saltchuk Resources, Inc. agreed to acquire Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation and its dredging capability. EV / LTM revenue 1.7x EV / LTM EBITDA 11.0x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Saltchuk Resources, Inc. sits on the marine and logistics side, and the target is a marine dredging contractor. What the transaction suggests is a buyer reaching for specialty marine spreads and the crews behind them, which take years to assemble, rather than for added geography. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The deal was recorded at $1.5B, at 1.7x revenue and 11.0x EBITDA, and is announced rather than completed. That EBITDA multiple sits above the core band of this listed set and toward the upper end of the recorded transactions here, which is consistent with what specialty marine capability has been agreed at.
- 15SECTION 05
05
05.
Section 05 of 06 — Three Moves Available Between Funding Cycles. What this pricing says about where to put the effort. Use this divider to reset the room before the section's pages; the progress dots show where the argument stands. 15
Everything on this page
SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Three Moves Available Between Funding Cycles What this pricing says about where to put the effort. 05 of 06 Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15
- 1605 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Three Moves That Sit Alongside the Top of the Range
Three Moves That Sit Alongside the Top of the Range.
Three Moves That Sit Alongside the Top of the Range NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. 16
Everything on this page
05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Three Moves That Sit Alongside the Top of the Range NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16 FOR OWNERS Repeatable Earnings Sit at the Upper End of This Range The forward lens already credits your ramp, so the argument that moves a price is durability: funded work with credit-quality owners, self-perform content on the critical path, and a claims tail already worked down. Those are operating moves, available between funding cycles. FOR BOARDS Test the Plan on Margin Held from Notice to Proceed Through Completion Across this set and this run, the forward multiple sits close to level on either side of the growth line. The board question is which projects and which contract types hold gross margin all the way through the build, and what the bid governance allows in. FOR ACQUIRERS Funded Public Mix Sits Alongside the Top of the Range In the recorded transactions here, vertically integrated paving and materials and specialty marine capability were agreed at the upper end, while a fabrication and products asset was recorded far below. The build-versus-buy question is whether you need the capability or the local density — and what surety consent and prequalification transfer cost you in time.
- 17SECTION 06
06
06.
Section 06 of 06 — The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources. Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. Use this divider to reset the room before the section's pages; the progress dots show where the argument stands. 17
Everything on this page
SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17
- 1806 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)
Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier
Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier.
Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (7.6x); amber marks below · 8 rated companies; 1 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 8 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. 18
Everything on this page
06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (7.6x); amber marks below · 8 rated companies; 1 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 8 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥9.0x · median 12.3x · 2 companies Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. STRL Heavy civil prime contractors and program delivery $15.6B 13.4x 21% 22% 45 L.B. Foster Company FSTR Adjacent: rail network owner-operators (infrastructure… $526M 11.1x 3% 8% 11 CORE — 7.2x–9.0x · median 7.6x · 4 companies Select Water Solutions, Inc. WTTR Adjacent: wellsite and energy field infrastructure… $3.1B 8.4x 5% 23% 28 Fluor Corporation FLR Heavy civil prime contractors and program delivery $4.6B 7.7x 10% 3% 14 Granite Construction Incorporated GVA Heavy civil prime contractors and program delivery $6.1B 7.5x 9% 13% 23 Orion Group Holdings, Inc. ORN Heavy civil prime contractors and program delivery $458M 7.3x 8% 6% 14 DISCOUNT — <7.2x · median 6.1x · 2 companies Astec Industries, Inc. ASTE Asphalt plant and aggregate processing equipment $1.3B 7.1x 6% 10% 16 Shimmick Corp. SHIM Heavy civil prime contractors and program delivery $183M 5.1x 20% 4% 26
- 1906 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 1)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First.
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 6 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (18 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 23 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; no evidence record); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 12 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 19
Everything on this page
06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 1) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 6 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (18 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 23 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; no evidence record); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 12 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Feb-2026 Saltchuk Resources, Inc. → Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation $1.5B 1.7x 11.0x Saltchuk Resources, Inc. agreed in Feb-2026 to acquire Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation at $1.5B, recorded as announced rather than completed. Marine and dredging spreads are the kind of specialty capability a buyer cannot stand up quickly. Nov-2025 Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. → Arcosa, Inc. n/a n/a 3.0x Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. completed its acquisition of Arcosa, Inc. in Nov-2025 at 3.0x EBITDA as recorded. That sits well below the middle of this listed set's forward range and alongside a very different asset profile from contracting. May-2024 Arcosa, Inc. → Ameron Pole Products LLC n/a n/a 9.1x Arcosa, Inc. completed the purchase of Ameron Pole Products LLC in May-2024 at 9.1x EBITDA. Utility and power-delivery product lines sit in the upper half of this record, which suggests buyers paid for manufactured content tied to multi-year utility programs. Jun-2022 Fernweh Group LLC → egment (unit of AZZ Infrastructure Solutions) $348M n/a n/a Fernweh Group LLC agreed in Jun-2022 to acquire egment (unit of AZZ Infrastructure Solutions) at $348M, recorded as announced. Divestitures of infrastructure service units are how strategics narrow their focus, and sponsors have been willing counterparties at that… Feb-2022 U.S. Silica → Green Infrastructure Partners Inc. n/a n/a 12.5x The announced acquisition of Green Infrastructure Partners Inc. by U.S. Silica in Feb-2022 was recorded at 12.5x EBITDA, the upper end of this record. Vertically integrated paving and materials positions — plants, permitted reserves and internal volume — sit above… n/a n/a → Acciona, S.A. n/a 0.8x 6.6x The record carries Acciona, S.A. at 0.8x revenue and 6.6x EBITDA. It is a useful benchmark for large diversified infrastructure groups, which sit below the middle of this listed set's forward range.
- 2006 · METHODOLOGY
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality.
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. 20
Everything on this page
06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 20 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (8 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Infrastructure Construction and it clears the coverage gate with 8 of 9 companies (89%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 8 of the 8 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 4 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 437 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (436) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.
- 21
Across This Set, the Upper End Sits with Margin Held Through the Build.
Across This Set, the Upper End Sits with Margin Held Through the Build..
Closing — Across This Set, the Upper End Sits with Margin Held Through the Build. The companion tables beside this deck carry the full universe, the exclusion ledger and the complete source index for any figure a client wants to trace. 21
Everything on this page
Across This Set, the Upper End Sits with Margin Held Through the Build. NeuraCap AI — Infrastructure Construction Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Infrastructure Construction Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 21
Sources and methodology
This report covers Infrastructure Construction (Industrials › Capital Goods › Infrastructure Construction) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 9 listed companies whose core business is Infrastructure Construction according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE), Fluor Corporation (FLR), L.B. Foster Company (FSTR), Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA), Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN), Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD), Shimmick Corp. (SHIM), Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL), Select Water Solutions, Inc. (WTTR). The market map groups them by business vertical — Heavy civil prime contractors and program delivery: 6 companies (STRL, ROAD, GVA, FLR, ORN, SHIM); Adjacent models: 3 companies (WTTR, ASTE, FSTR). 8 of the 9 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
Scope and company universe
This report covers Infrastructure Construction (Industrials › Capital Goods › Infrastructure Construction) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 9 listed companies whose core business is Infrastructure Construction according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE), Fluor Corporation (FLR), L.B. Foster Company (FSTR), Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA), Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN), Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD), Shimmick Corp. (SHIM), Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL), Select Water Solutions, Inc. (WTTR). The market map groups them by business vertical — Heavy civil prime contractors and program delivery: 6 companies (STRL, ROAD, GVA, FLR, ORN, SHIM); Adjacent models: 3 companies (WTTR, ASTE, FSTR). 8 of the 9 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
What was excluded and why
4 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (4 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: FLR — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · GVA — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SHIM — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SHIM — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)
Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen
Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (8 of 9 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Infrastructure Construction and it clears the coverage gate with 8 of 9 companies (89%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 8 of the 8 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 8 of 9 companies; EV / rEVenue: 9 of 9 companies; P/E: 9 of 9 companies.
How the multiples and statistics are computed
Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥9.0x, Core 7.2x–9.0x, Discount <7.2x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 7.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) (8 rated companies) · 12.3x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=2) · 7.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Core tier (n=4) · 6.1x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=2) · 7.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth ≥ 8% (n=4) · 7.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth < 8% (n=4) · 7.9x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin ≥ 9% (n=4) · 7.5x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin < 9% (n=4) · 19% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=8) · 10.5x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within balanced quadrant (n=2) · 7.7x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within marginOnly quadrant (n=2) · 6.4x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within growthOnly quadrant (n=2) · 9.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within neither quadrant (n=2)
Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why
The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Infrastructure Construction recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 18 transactions were recorded for this industry; 6 are shown. 12 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 11 × deal value unit unresolved; 8 × no evidence record; 4 × divestiture roles reassigned. Case studies lead with the 1 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.
Sources
Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 28, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 441 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.
Interpretation and important notice
Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.
This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.
More coverage in Industrials
- Sector Report · Sep 28, 2026Electrical Equipment and Components Sector Outlook — September 2026
- Bi-Weekly Update · Sep 28, 2026Launch Vehicles and Services Bi-Weekly Industry Events & M&A Update — September 14–28, 2026
- Sector Report · Sep 28, 2026Launch Vehicles and Services Sector Outlook — September 2026
- Sector Report · Sep 28, 2026Defense Electronics and Systems Sector Outlook — September 2026
Want this analysis for a company in Infrastructure Construction?
Company valuation reports run the same method against a single business — public or private.
