Homebuilding Sector Outlook — September 2026
A sector-wide look at how 18 listed homebuilders are priced on forward earnings, what separates the top valuation band from the bottom, and what the recent transaction record shows. Built for investors and operators tracking valuation, land strategy and deal activity in homebuilding.
Key figures
- 21.2x
- Top-band multiple P/E CY2027E, top 4 builders
- 9.8x
- Bottom-band multiple P/E CY2027E, bottom 4 builders
- 11.5x
- Sector median P/E CY2027E, rated set
- $1.2B
- Largest disclosed deal New Home Co. / Landsea Homes, 8.8x EBITDA
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1 / 23 · CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY › CONSUMER DURABLES AND APPAREL › HOMEBUILDING
Executive summary
Homebuilding prices in three bands rather than one: the top four names trade at 21.2x CY2027E earnings, the bottom four at 9.8x, and the sector median sits at 11.5x. The premium band is concentrated among builders still growing revenue, including affordability-led and plant-built product, while several of the largest companies by scale sit in the middle. Precedent transactions have kept closing through a softer order environment, including New Home Co.'s completed acquisition of Landsea Homes Corporation at 8.8x EBITDA.
Key findings
- Homebuilders split into three P/E bands rather than pricing as one sector.
- The top band holds builders still growing revenue, not simply the largest.
- Precedent deals kept closing even as order volumes softened.
- Affordability-led and plant-built builders sit among the highest multiples.
What each page shows
The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.
- 01
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY › CONSUMER DURABLES AND APPAREL › HOMEBUILDING
This is the cover page for the Homebuilding sector outlook, dated September 28, 2026.
This report reads the 18 listed homebuilders through a single forward-earnings lens, as of September 28, 2026. What follows shows where the valuation premium sits today and why it clusters where it does.
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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY › CONSUMER DURABLES AND APPAREL › HOMEBUILDING Homebuilding: Size Is Not Where the Premium Sits A read on how the listed builders are priced on forward earnings, what separates the top of the range from the bottom, and what the recent transaction record shows. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis P / E (CY2027E) Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1
- 02CONTENTS
What This Report Covers
This slide lists the report's five sections plus the appendix.
We've built this report so the bottom line comes first — read section one and you have the whole story. Sections two through five then walk through the landscape, valuation, precedent deals and the strategic implications in turn.
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CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Three Price Bands, One Sector Label, and Pace Sits at the Top 02 The Landscape One Label Covering 18 Builders with Very Different Land Structures 03 Valuation & Situations Four Builders Hold the Top of the Range and Four Hold the Bottom 04 Precedent Transactions Deals Kept Getting Signed While Orders Softened 05 Strategic Implications Pace, Land Structure and Turns Are the Levers on the Table 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2
- 0301 · THE BOTTOM LINE
Homebuilding Trades in Three Bands, and the Builders Still Growing Sit in the Top One
This slide states the report's central finding: homebuilders trade in three valuation bands, with growing builders at the top.
The set splits into three valuation bands on P/E for CY2027E: a top band near 21.2x, a bottom band near 9.8x, and a sector median of 11.5x in between. That spread isn't about size — it's the builders still growing revenue who hold the top band. We'll walk through what separates the top of the range from the bottom, and what the deal record tells us about where capital is moving. So what: the premium here is earned by pace and growth, not scale.
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01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Homebuilding Trades in Three Bands, and the Builders Still Growing Sit in the Top One The full story on one page · figures on P / E (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: P / E on CY2027E consensus (16 of 18 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Practitioners price this industry on P / E rather than EV / EBITDA; validated coverage supports the industry standard (16 of 18 companies), so this report follows it. Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 The Top of the Range Is Priced Well Above the Bottom The 4 names at the top of the set are priced at 21.2x CY2027E earnings against 9.8x for the 4 at the bottom, with the middle of the range at 11.5x. The lens already credits next year's earnings, so a premium that survives it is a statement about the years after that. 2 The Higher Multiples Sit with the Builders Still Growing Revenue Of the 15 names carrying both a forward multiple and a revenue growth figure, the 8 above the growth midpoint of the set are priced at 12.3x and the 7 below it at 11.0x. Growth is associated with the premium end here; on 15 names it is a direction, not a settled rule. 3 Entry-Level Pace and Plant-Built Product Sit in the Top Band Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) is priced at 23.7x on 9% revenue growth, and the plant-built names Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) and Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY) sit in the same top band. Affordability-led product and short cycle times sit alongside the higher multiples in this set. 4 Transactions Keep Clearing While Volumes Soften Across the 9 transactions in this record, New Home Co. completed its acquisition of Landsea Homes Corporation at a recorded $1.2B and 8.8x EBITDA. Several of the larger entries, including the largest by disclosed value, are announced rather than completed, so those are terms buyers agreed to pay, not closed prices. 11.5x Sector median P/E CY2027E consensus · 16 rated of 18 companies 21.2x Premium end P/E vs 9.8x at the discount end top quartile (n=4) against bottom quartile (n=4) on P/E — the spread the report explains 13 Transactions with disclosed terms 32 recorded in this tier · 3 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix
- 04SECTION 02
02
Section divider introducing the market map of 18 builders.
Eighteen builders carry one industry label, but their land structures and pricing look very different. Next we map the group and show how wide the spread inside it runs.
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SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE One Label Covering 18 Builders with Very Different Land Structures The group in full: who is in the set and how wide the spread inside it runs. 02 of 06 Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4
- 0502 · MARKET MAP
18 Builders Sit in One Group, and the Spread Inside It Is Wide
This slide groups the 18 builders by business segment and shows the median P/E for each group.
We've grouped all 18 approved builders by business segment and taken the median P/E CY2027E for each. The medians already tell us this isn't one uniform group — some segments carry materially higher multiples than others. So what: segment alone doesn't explain the valuation gap, which is why we go company by company next.
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02 · MARKET MAP 18 Builders Sit in One Group, and the Spread Inside It Is Wide 18 approved companies grouped by business segment · median P / E (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 REGIONAL PRODUCTION BUILDERS AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPERS 18 cos median 11.5x D.R. Horton (DHI) PulteGroup (PHM) Lennar (LEN) NVR Toll Brothers (TOL) Meritage Homes (MTH) KB Home (KBH) Champion Homes (SKY) Cavco Industries (CVCO) M/I Homes (MHO) Century (CCS) Green Brick (GRBK) LGI Homes (LGIH) Dream Finders (DFH) Beazer Homes USA (BZH) Hovnanian (HOV) Smith Douglas (SDHC) Legacy Housing (LEGH) Every name on the page builds and sells homes in local markets, so what separates them in price is land structure, pace and price point rather than the industry they sit in.
- 0602 · LANDSCAPE
One Group on Paper, Three Price Bands in Practice
This slide shows that despite being one reporting group, the builders split into three distinct valuation bands.
One group on paper still resolves into three price bands in practice once we look at rated names individually. The appendix carries the full company-level detail behind every segment median shown here. So what: investors pricing this sector by segment label alone are missing where the real dispersion sits.
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02 · LANDSCAPE One Group on Paper, Three Price Bands in Practice Segment view of the approved universe · P / E (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median P/E Names to know What they do — and why it matters Regional production builders and community developers 18 100% 11.5x D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) · PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) · +16 more The whole field, one label. All 18 approved builders sit here, with 16 names carrying a forward estimate, and the middle of the group sits at 11.5x. Inside the single label sit site-built production builders, plant-built housing companies and land-heavy community developers, priced across a wide band.
- 07SECTION 03
03
Section divider introducing the public market valuation analysis.
Four builders hold the top of the valuation range and four hold the bottom, with all 18 names on the page and 16 carrying a forward estimate. The next pages set out exactly where that gap comes from.
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SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS Four Builders Hold the Top of the Range and Four Hold the Bottom All 18 builders are on the page, with 16 names carrying a forward estimate. 03 of 06 Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7
- 0803 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION
Four Builders Hold the Top of the Range, and the Gap to the Bottom Is Wide
This slide ranks all 16 rated builders by P/E CY2027E and shows the gap between the top four and bottom four.
Sorted descending on P/E CY2027E, the top four builders trade well above the sector median of 11.5x, while the bottom four sit well below it. Tier zones here are cut at the rated set's own quartiles, so the bands reflect this group's actual distribution rather than an external benchmark. So what: the gap between top and bottom is wide enough that it's worth understanding what drives it, which we turn to next.
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03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION Four Builders Hold the Top of the Range, and the Gap to the Bottom Is Wide P / E (CY2027E) · all 16 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 11.5x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: P / E on CY2027E consensus (16 of 18 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Practitioners price this industry on P / E rather than EV / EBITDA; validated coverage supports the industry standard (16 of 18 companies), so this report follows it. Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same P / E (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 21.2x CORE · median 11.5x DISCOUNT · median 9.8x Sector median 11.5x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top holds 21.2x. The 4 names at the premium end are priced at 21.2x CY2027E earnings. Because a forward lens already credits next year's forecast, a premium that survives it points to durability in the land book and the community plan rather than one good closing year. The bottom sits at 9.8x. The 4 names at the discount end sit at 9.8x. Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is in that group with a 15% margin, so on this evidence the discount sits alongside land duration and price-point exposure rather than alongside current profitability. Size alone does not sort them. The four largest names by enterprise value split across the middle and premium bands, while two of the four at the top of the range are among the smaller companies here. Where a builder sits is associated with pace and product mix more than with volume.
- 0903 · VALUATION DRIVERS
On This Set, the Higher Multiples Sit with Growth and Not with Margin
This slide compares median P/E by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort.
Splitting the rated set at its own growth and margin medians, the higher multiples line up with the faster-growing cohort rather than the higher-margin one. This is an association we observe in the data, not a claim that growth causes the premium. So what: on this set, growth is the more useful lens for explaining who trades above the median.
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03 · VALUATION DRIVERS On This Set, the Higher Multiples Sit with Growth and Not with Margin Median P / E (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=8; slower n=7; higher-margin n=6; lower-margin n=6). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 P/E, median per cohort · growth split at -5% · EBITDA-margin split at 11% Faster-Growing Builders Sit at 12.3x, the Slower Group at 11.0x Split at -5% revenue growth, the 8 faster names are priced at 12.3x CY2027E earnings and the 7 slower names at 11.0x, on the 15 names carrying both figures. The step is real but modest, so growth is associated with the higher multiple rather than standing in for earnings quality. Higher Reported Margins Are Not Showing up in Higher Multiples PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) reports a 17% margin and is priced at 10.6x, while LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) at a 4% margin is priced at 12.9x. In a business where gross margin is locked in at land purchase, the set appears to be pricing what the lot book converts to next, not what it converted to last. Order Softness Is Broad, so Pace and Turns Carry the Difference Revenue growth runs from 33% at the top of the set to -16% at the bottom, and most of the 17 names with a growth figure are negative. Where volumes are falling across the field, the separation shows up in absorption pace, cycle time and how quickly finished lots are recycled.
- 1003 · SITUATION MAP
Five Names Sit Above the Set on Both Price and Pace
This slide maps builders on P/E versus revenue growth relative to the set's medians.
Cutting the set on P/E against the sector median and on revenue growth against the covered median, five names sit above both lines. These are observations about where names sit, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. So what: this is the shortlist worth digging into for what's actually driving the premium.
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03 · SITUATION MAP Five Names Sit Above the Set on Both Price and Pace Cut on P / E vs the sector median (11.5x) (rows) and revenue growth vs the covered median (-5%) (columns) · 1 rated names without the second measure are not mapped · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Pace and Premium Together Above-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 5 names D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) · Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY) · LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) · +2 more D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY), LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH), Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) and Legacy Housing Corporation (LEGH) sit above the set on both the forward multiple and revenue growth. This is the profile the set is currently pricing up: affordability-led product moving at pace. Premium Without the Pace Above-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 2 names Lennar Corporation (LEN) · NVR, Inc. (NVR) Lennar Corporation (LEN) and NVR, Inc. (NVR) hold above-median multiples with revenue growth below the set. That combination usually rests on land-light lot control, returns on inventory and balance sheet structure rather than on current volume. Growing at a Discount Below-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 3 names Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) · M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) · Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH) Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) and Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH) are growing faster than the set while priced below it. The question for names in this cell is whether the discount sits with price-point concentration, owned-land duration or a shorter operating record. Below the Set on Both Below-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 5 names PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) · Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) · KB Home (KBH) · +2 more PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH), KB Home (KBH), Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) and Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) sit below the set on both measures. Several report margins in the upper half of the set, which suggests the discount sits with volume and land basis rather than with profitability.
- 1103 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY
Where Growth and Margin Meet, the Multiple Is Unremarkable
This slide plots revenue growth against EBITDA margin and shows the median P/E in each quadrant.
Cutting the 12 companies with both estimates at the covered medians for growth and margin, the quadrant where both are strong doesn't carry a standout multiple. So what: the premium in this set tracks growth on its own more than it tracks the combination of growth and margin together.
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03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY Where Growth and Margin Meet, the Multiple Is Unremarkable Revenue growth (CY2026E, x-axis) vs EBITDA margin (CY2026E, y-axis) · 12 companies with both estimates · cuts at the covered medians (-5% growth, 11% margin) · median P/E per quadrant · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Quadrant cuts are the covered set's medians. Quadrant medians on names with a meaningful P/E (balanced n=3; margin-only n=3; growth-only n=3; neither n=3). LEGH plotted at the chart edge. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 10% 20% 30% MARGIN ONLY median 10.6x BALANCED median 11.7x NEITHER median 11.2x GROWTH ONLY median 21.3x NVR CCS MTH LEN PHM MHO TOL DHI SKY LGIH SDHC LEGH x: revenue growth (CY2026E) · y: EBITDA margin (CY2026E) HOW TO READ THIS The grid splits the set at -5% revenue growth and an 11% margin, with three names in each of the four cells. The three names above the growth line but below the margin line sit at 21.3x, while the three above both lines sit at 11.7x. The three above margin but below growth sit at 10.6x, and the three below both sit at 11.2x. Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), D.R. Horton, Inc. Rule of 40 (revenue growth + EBITDA margin ≥ 40%): 1 of 12 names clear it (LEGH).
- 1203 · THE AGENDA
The Valuation Gap in This Group Sits with Land Capital, Pricing and Mix
This slide frames the valuation gap as a set of questions around land capital, pricing and mix.
We read the valuation gap in this group as sitting with land capital structure, pricing power and product mix rather than scale. These are framed as questions for an owner or acquirer to resolve, not settled conclusions. So what: the next section shows where the transaction record has already been testing these questions.
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03 · THE AGENDA The Valuation Gap in This Group Sits with Land Capital, Pricing and Mix NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12 Buy Pace: Option More Lots, Own Fewer The names at the top of the range are the ones still growing revenue, and option-controlled lot pipelines keep capital recycling while orders are soft. Shifting the owned-to-optioned mix changes the duration of the land book without changing the community opening plan. What changes the answer: A widening gap between the faster and slower growth groups on forward earnings. Buy Basis: Take Land While Others Hold Back Three names in this set are growing faster than the group while priced below it, which is where owned-land duration and price-point concentration usually show up. Adding finished lots at today's basis is a bet on margin being set at purchase, as it is in this business. What changes the answer: Lot takedown terms and development cost moving in the buyer's favour in the core metros. Buy Product: Move Mix Toward the Entry-Level Buyer The affordability-constrained entry-level buyer sits behind several of the names at the top of the range, including Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) and LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH). Moving specification and mix toward that buyer is a production and incentive decision before it is a land decision. What changes the answer: Mortgage rate moves that change traffic and the incentive load needed to hold pace. Buy Turns: Shorten Cycle Time and Clear Standing Spec With revenue growth negative across much of the set, returns are coming from turning inventory rather than from holding out for price. Cycle time, even-flow production and standing spec age are the levers that move return on inventory inside a single quarter. What changes the answer: Standing spec ageing past its normal window in the core communities.
- 13SECTION 04
04
Section divider introducing the precedent transaction case studies.
Deals kept getting signed across this sector even as order volumes softened, with nine transactions in the record ranging from a single regional platform to whole-company combinations. The following pages walk through three as case studies.
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SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS Deals Kept Getting Signed While Orders Softened Nine transactions in the record, from a single regional platform to whole-company combinations. 04 of 06 Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13
- 1404 · DEAL CASE STUDIES
Deals Kept Getting Signed While Orders Softened
This slide walks through three precedent transactions in detail, including deal value and multiple.
Among the transactions with disclosed terms, New Home Co.'s completed acquisition of Landsea Homes Corporation closed at $1.2B and 8.8x EBITDA on LTM financials at announcement. These deal multiples sit on a different basis than the CY2027E public multiples elsewhere in this report, so we don't draw a spread between them. So what: the record shows buyers keep paying for platforms — land teams and pipelines — even when the market backdrop is soft.
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04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Deals Kept Getting Signed While Orders Softened 3 of 13 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 48 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; duplicate precedent id; financial target ev not meaningful); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 19 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14 May-2026 $8.7B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. agrees terms for Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, the largest disclosed value… EV / LTM revenue 1.1x EV / LTM EBITDA 7.6x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED A long-horizon holding company reaching for a national production builder points to an appetite for owning the land book, the trade base and the operating platform through a full cycle. A multi-metro footprint of that size is the kind of position a buyer with patient capital can hold without needing a near-term turn. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The transaction is recorded at $8.7B, 1.1x revenue and 7.6x EBITDA, and is announced rather than completed. That EBITDA mark sits toward the lower end of the multiples recorded in this transaction record. Feb-2026 $4.3B Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. reaches for a US operating platform in Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. EV / LTM revenue 1.3x EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED An international strategic from a housing-intensive market buying a listed US builder points to an appetite for a ready-made platform: land teams, entitlements in progress, community count and trade relationships. Assembling that position lot by lot would take years of entitlement and horizontal development work. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Recorded at $4.3B and 1.3x revenue, announced in Feb-2026. That is the top of the whole-company revenue marks in this record. May-2026 $2.2B Dream Finders Homes, Inc. Dream Finders Homes, Inc. moves on Beazer Homes USA, Inc. in a builder-to-builder combination. EV / LTM revenue 1.0x EV / LTM EBITDA 25.2x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED A fast-growing builder acquiring an established multi-metro operator points to buying community count and an entitled lot pipeline in a single step rather than building it. Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) carries a 3% margin in this set, which suggests the case rests on land position and footprint more than on current earnings. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Recorded at $2.2B, 1.0x revenue and 25.2x EBITDA, announced in May-2026. The revenue mark sits with the other whole-company deals here while the EBITDA mark sits far above them, consistent with earnings struck late in a soft cycle.
- 15SECTION 05
05
Section divider introducing the strategic implications.
Pace, land structure and inventory turns are the levers on the table for an operator running through a soft market. We close with what this comparable set points to for the next twelve months.
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SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Pace, Land Structure and Turns Are the Levers on the Table What the comparable set points to for an operator running through a soft market. 05 of 06 Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15
- 1605 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Pace, Land Structure and Turns Are the Levers on the Table
This slide sets out the operating levers — pace, land structure and turns — for the year ahead.
Across owners, boards and buyers, the questions this data raises center on absorption pace, how much of the lot book is optioned versus owned, and how quickly inventory turns. These are directional views grounded in the analysis in this report, not recommendations. So what: capital allocation decisions in this environment are a turns question first.
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05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Pace, Land Structure and Turns Are the Levers on the Table NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16 FOR OWNERS Pace and Land Structure Sit Closer to the Multiple than Size Does Across the 16 names with a forward estimate, the top of the range holds builders still growing revenue while several of the largest sit in the middle band. The decisions that show up in that ranking are absorption pace, community count runway and how much of the lot book is optioned rather than owned. FOR BOARDS Capital Allocation Is a Turns Question in This Part of the Cycle With revenue growth negative across much of the set, the return is coming from recycling capital through lots rather than from waiting for price. Lot takedown schedules, standing spec age and the incentive load needed to hold pace are worth more board time than a volume target. FOR BUYERS The Transaction Record Is Pricing Platforms, Not Headline Volume Recent transactions have been agreed for operating platforms — land teams, trade bases and entitled pipelines — across a wide band of EBITDA marks, several of them still at announced status. Diligence here runs contract by contract through the lot book, and long-dated or unentitled land is frequently left behind or taken down separately.
- 17SECTION 06
06
06.
Section 06 of 06 — The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources. Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. Use this divider to reset the room before the section's pages; the progress dots show where the argument stands. 17
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SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17
- 1806 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 2)
Public Comparables on P / E (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier
This slide lists the rated public comparables on P/E CY2027E, grouped by valuation tier.
All 16 rated companies appear here, shaded against the sector median of 11.5x, with two names carrying no eligible multiple. Tickers link through to the underlying source for anyone tracing a specific figure. So what: this is the full rated set behind every multiple quoted earlier in the report.
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06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 2) Public Comparables on P / E (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a P/E above the sector median (11.5x); amber marks below · 16 rated companies; 2 not rated (no eligible P/E) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 16 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Company Ticker Segment EV P/E (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥15.5x · median 21.2x · 4 companies Smith Douglas Homes Corp. SDHC Regional production builders and community developers $918M 23.7x 9% 4% 15 Champion Homes, Inc. SKY Regional production builders and community developers $4.2B 21.3x 4% 10% 18 Cavco Industries, Inc. CVCO Regional production builders and community developers $4.0B 21.2x n/a n/a n/a Lennar Corporation LEN Regional production builders and community developers $22.4B 16.2x -7% 7% n/a CORE — 10.6x–15.5x · median 11.5x · 8 companies NVR, Inc. NVR Regional production builders and community developers $16.2B 15.3x -9% 13% 20 LGI Homes, Inc. LGIH Regional production builders and community developers $2.8B 12.9x 8% 4% 17 Legacy Housing Corporation LEGH Regional production builders and community developers $681M 12.9x 33% 32% 25 D.R. Horton, Inc. DHI Regional production builders and community developers $45.0B 11.7x -1% 12% n/a Century Communities, Inc. CCS Regional production builders and community developers $3.2B 11.2x -8% 7% 12 Meritage Homes Corporation MTH Regional production builders and community developers $5.5B 11.0x -8% 10% 17 Green Brick Partners, Inc. GRBK Regional production builders and community developers $3.2B 10.7x -9% n/a n/a PulteGroup, Inc. PHM Regional production builders and community developers $23.3B 10.6x -5% 17% 21 DISCOUNT — <10.6x · median 9.8x · 4 companies KB Home KBH Regional production builders and community developers $4.7B 10.5x -16% n/a n/a M/I Homes, Inc. MHO Regional production builders and community developers $3.8B 9.9x -5% 11% 16
- 1906 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (2 OF 2)
Public Comparables on P / E (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier
This slide continues the rated public comparables list on P/E CY2027E.
This continues the full rated comparable set, shaded the same way against the 11.5x sector median. Every row here is also available in the companion workbook with the complete field set. So what: readers can trace any single name's position back to this table.
Everything on this page
06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (2 OF 2) Public Comparables on P / E (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a P/E above the sector median (11.5x); amber marks below · 16 rated companies; 2 not rated (no eligible P/E) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 16 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Company Ticker Segment EV P/E (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 DISCOUNT — CONTINUED — <10.6x · median 9.8x · 4 companies Toll Brothers, Inc. TOL Regional production builders and community developers $14.6B 9.7x -4% 15% n/a Dream Finders Homes, Inc. DFH Regional production builders and community developers $2.6B 9.2x -2% n/a n/a
- 2006 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
This slide lists precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first.
Thirteen transactions with disclosed terms appear here out of 32 recorded in this tier, with deal values linking through to the underlying filing. Multiples are stated on LTM financials at announcement and are not comparable to the CY2027E public basis used elsewhere. So what: this is the primary evidence behind the deal activity discussed in section four.
Everything on this page
06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 13 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (32 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 48 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; duplicate precedent id; financial target ev not meaningful); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 19 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 20 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters May-2026 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. → Taylor Morrison Home Corporation $8.7B 1.1x 7.6x Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s acquisition of Taylor Morrison Home Corporation is recorded at $8.7B and 7.6x EBITDA, dated May-2026. The status is announced, so these are agreed terms rather than a closed price. May-2026 Dream Finders Homes, Inc. → Beazer Homes USA, Inc. $2.2B 1.0x 25.2x Dream Finders Homes, Inc. announced the acquisition of Beazer Homes USA, Inc. in May-2026 at a recorded $2.2B and 25.2x EBITDA. The EBITDA mark sits far above the rest of this record, consistent with earnings struck in a soft part of the cycle. Feb-2026 United Homes Group, Inc. → Stanley Martin Homes, LLC $221M 0.5x n/a United Homes Group, Inc. completed the purchase of Stanley Martin Homes, LLC in Feb-2026 at $221M and 0.5x revenue. It is the smallest disclosed value and the lowest recorded revenue mark among these 9 transactions. Feb-2026 Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. → Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. $4.3B 1.3x n/a Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. announced the acquisition of Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. in Feb-2026 at $4.3B and 1.3x revenue. That is the top of the revenue marks recorded here for a whole company. Feb-2026 Western Refining Logistics → February 2026 n/a n/a 6.0x This Feb-2026 entry lists Western Refining Logistics as acquirer and is recorded at 6.0x EBITDA. It sits at the bottom of the EBITDA marks in this record. May-2025 New Home Co. → Landsea Homes Corporation $1.2B n/a 8.8x New Home Co. completed its acquisition of Landsea Homes Corporation in May-2025 at $1.2B and 8.8x EBITDA. Among the closed transactions here, it is the clearest read on what a whole builder changed hands for. May-2025 Risewell Homes Inc. → Landsea Homes Corporation n/a 0.9x n/a Risewell Homes Inc. is recorded against Landsea Homes Corporation in May-2025 at 0.9x revenue. Read next to the completed transaction, it gives a second revenue mark on the same platform. Aug-2023 Skyline Champion Corporation → Regional Homes $458M n/a n/a Skyline Champion Corporation completed the purchase of Regional Homes in Aug-2023 at a recorded $458M. Plant operators acquiring regional retail and distribution is a familiar shape on the factory-built side of this sector. Sep-2021 Marathon Oil Corporation → September 2021 n/a n/a 12.6x This Sep-2021 entry lists Marathon Oil Corporation as acquirer and is recorded at 12.6x EBITDA. It sits in the upper half of the EBITDA marks in this record.
- 2106 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
This slide continues the list of precedent transactions with disclosed terms.
The remaining disclosed-terms transactions continue here, on the same LTM-at-announcement basis. So what: together with the prior page, this is the complete disclosed-terms record behind the deal commentary in this report.
Everything on this page
06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 13 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (32 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 48 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; duplicate precedent id; financial target ev not meaningful); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 19 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 21 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Sep-2021 Apollo Global Management, Inc. → Risewell Homes Inc. n/a 0.9x n/a Feb-2020 Taylor Morrison Home Corporation → William Lyon Homes, Inc. n/a 1.1x n/a Jun-2018 Taylor Morrison Home Corporation → June 2018 n/a n/a 8.8x Jun-2015 The Ryland Group, Inc. → Standard Pacific Corp. n/a 1.8x n/a
- 2206 · METHODOLOGY
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality
This slide sets out the sources, assumptions and data-quality notes behind the report.
Every figure in this report links back to the record it came from, whether a filing, a consensus estimate or a market price. Where a link isn't available, the appendix names the source and the basis used, so any figure here can be traced and checked against the primary filing before it's relied on. So what: this page is where to start if you want to verify a specific number before acting on it.
Everything on this page
06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 22 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: P / E on CY2027E consensus (16 of 18 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Practitioners price this industry on P / E rather than EV / EBITDA; validated coverage supports the industry standard (16 of 18 companies), so this report follows it. P / E on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Homebuilding and it clears the coverage gate with 16 of 18 companies (89%). EV / Revenue is carried as a cross-check. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 3 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 700 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (699) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.
- 23
Across This Set, the Higher Multiples Sit with the Builders Still Growing.
This is the closing slide restating that higher multiples in this set sit with the builders still growing.
Across this set, the higher multiples sit with the builders still growing revenue, not simply the largest by scale. The companion tables carry the full universe, the exclusion ledger and the complete source index for anyone who wants to trace a specific figure further.
Everything on this page
Across This Set, the Higher Multiples Sit with the Builders Still Growing. NeuraCap AI — Homebuilding Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Homebuilding Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 23
Sources and methodology
This report covers Homebuilding (Consumer Discretionary › Consumer Durables and Apparel › Homebuilding) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 18 listed companies whose core business is Homebuilding according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH), Century Communities, Inc. (CCS), Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO), Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH), D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK), Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV), KB Home (KBH), Legacy Housing Corporation (LEGH), Lennar Corporation (LEN), LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH), M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO), Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH), NVR, Inc. (NVR), PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC), Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY), Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL). The market map groups them by business vertical — Regional production builders and community developers: 18 companies (DHI, PHM, LEN, NVR, TOL, MTH, KBH, SKY, CVCO, MHO, CCS, GRBK, LGIH, DFH, BZH, HOV, SDHC, LEGH). 16 of the 18 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
Scope and company universe
This report covers Homebuilding (Consumer Discretionary › Consumer Durables and Apparel › Homebuilding) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 18 listed companies whose core business is Homebuilding according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH), Century Communities, Inc. (CCS), Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO), Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH), D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK), Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV), KB Home (KBH), Legacy Housing Corporation (LEGH), Lennar Corporation (LEN), LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH), M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO), Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH), NVR, Inc. (NVR), PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC), Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY), Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL). The market map groups them by business vertical — Regional production builders and community developers: 18 companies (DHI, PHM, LEN, NVR, TOL, MTH, KBH, SKY, CVCO, MHO, CCS, GRBK, LGIH, DFH, BZH, HOV, SDHC, LEGH). 16 of the 18 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
What was excluded and why
3 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (3 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: BZH — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · HOV — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · HOV — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)
Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen
Primary valuation basis: P / E on CY2027E consensus (16 of 18 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Practitioners price this industry on P / E rather than EV / EBITDA; validated coverage supports the industry standard (16 of 18 companies), so this report follows it. P / E on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Homebuilding and it clears the coverage gate with 16 of 18 companies (89%). EV / Revenue is carried as a cross-check. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 10 of 18 companies; EV / rEVenue: 17 of 18 companies; P/E: 16 of 18 companies. 1 company shows a non-meaningful P / E denominator and is excluded from that statistic.
How the multiples and statistics are computed
Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥15.5x, Core 10.6x–15.5x, Discount <10.6x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 11.5x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) (16 rated companies) · 21.2x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=4) · 11.5x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) within Core tier (n=8) · 9.8x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=4) · 12.3x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) | growth ≥ -5% (n=8) · 11.0x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) | growth < -5% (n=7) · 11.2x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) | EBITDA margin ≥ 11% (n=6) · 14.5x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) | EBITDA margin < 11% (n=6) · 11% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=12) · 11.7x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) within balanced quadrant (n=3) · 10.6x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) within marginOnly quadrant (n=3) · 21.3x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) within growthOnly quadrant (n=3) · 11.2x = median(pe_ratio CY2027E) within neither quadrant (n=3)
Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why
The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Homebuilding recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 32 transactions were recorded for this industry; 13 are shown. 19 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 9 × deal value unit unresolved; 31 × no evidence record; 5 × duplicate precedent id; 2 × self transaction; 1 × financial target ev not meaningful. Case studies lead with the 3 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.
Sources
Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 28, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 704 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.
Interpretation and important notice
Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.
This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.
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