NEURACAP
Sector ReportSep 28, 2026 · 22 pages · Free to read

Home Health and Long-Term Care Sector Outlook — September 2026

A sector outlook on Home Health and Long-Term Care, covering forward valuation, growth and margin drivers, precedent transactions and strategic implications. Built for owners, operators and boards weighing where earnings durability separates the peer set, as of September 2026.

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Key figures

13.0x
Sector Median Valuation
EV/EBITDA, CY2027E consensus
15.1x
Faster-Growth Cohort Median
EV/EBITDA, growth ≥ covered median cohort
10.2x
Slower-Growth Cohort Median
EV/EBITDA, growth below covered median cohort
23.4x
High-End Precedent Deal Multiple
LTM at announcement, disclosed transactions

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HEALTH CARE › HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES › HOME HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE

Home Health and Long-Term Care: Beyond Growth

The report tests which operating profiles sit with higher valuations and where earnings quality may matter more.

September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential

Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E)

Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice

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Executive summary

The sector's forward valuation midpoint sits at 13.0x EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus across nine of ten rated names, with faster-growing operators sitting at 15.1x against 10.2x for slower peers. Names that clear both growth and margin bars occupy the higher ground, while precedent transactions show buyers agreeing to a wide range of multiples depending on strategic fit. Because the forward multiple already prices expected growth, earnings durability — staffing, payer mix, census quality and local density — looks like the deeper differentiator for owners and acquirers to test next.

Key findings

  • Faster-growing operators sit at higher forward valuations across the rated set.
  • Names clearing both growth and margin bars command the highest multiples.
  • The sector median forward multiple is 13.0x EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus.
  • Precedent deal multiples vary widely, reflecting differences in strategic fit.

What each page shows

The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.

  1. 01

    HEALTH CARE › HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES › HOME HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE

    This is the cover slide introducing the Home Health and Long-Term Care sector outlook dated September 2026.

    We open with the Home Health and Long-Term Care sector as of September 2026, framed around forward EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus. This sets up the core question the report answers: which operating profiles earn a higher multiple, and why.

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    HEALTH CARE › HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES › HOME HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE Home Health and Long-Term Care: Beyond Growth The report tests which operating profiles sit with higher valuations and where earnings quality may matter more. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1

  2. 02
    CONTENTS

    What This Report Covers

    This slide lists the report's five sections plus the appendix: the bottom line, the landscape, valuation and situations, precedent transactions, and strategic implications.

    We lay out the five sections ahead, starting with the bottom line so the full argument stands on its own. Everything after builds the evidence behind that opening page.

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    CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Home Health and Long-Term Care Rewards More than Growth 02 The Landscape Most of the Set Shares One Label, but the Economics Still Differ 03 Valuation & Situations Faster Growth Sits with Higher Forward Valuations 04 Precedent Transactions Agreed Prices Span a Wide Range Across Buyer Types 05 Strategic Implications Strengthen the Earnings Story Behind the Forecast 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2

  3. 03
    01 · THE BOTTOM LINE

    Home Health and Long-Term Care Prices Growth, but Earnings Durability Still Separates the Field

    This slide presents the report's core finding: valuations track growth, but earnings durability still differentiates operators.

    We find that the sector's forward valuation midpoint sits at 13.0x EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus across nine of ten rated names. Faster-growing operators sit at 15.1x versus 10.2x for slower-growing peers, and the highest multiples cluster among names that clear both growth and margin bars. Precedent transactions show agreed prices ranging widely on disclosed EBITDA benchmarks, reflecting how much strategic fit and buyer type can matter. So the real work for owners and acquirers is proving earnings durability, not just growth, since the forward multiple already credits future growth.

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    01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Home Health and Long-Term Care Prices Growth, but Earnings Durability Still Separates the Field The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 The Forward Range Leaves Room for Earnings Quality to Matter The middle of the range is 13.0x across 9 of 10 names with a forward estimate. Because CY2027E already credits forecast growth, differences in staffing stability, payer mix and census quality may help distinguish the range. 2 Faster Growth Sits Alongside Higher Valuations On the 9 names with a forward estimate, 5 at or above 8% sit at 15.1x, while 4 below that mark sit at 10.2x. The association is clear enough to matter, but the small base keeps the conclusion measured. 3 Balanced Operating Profiles Occupy the Higher Ground On the 9 names in the quadrant, the 2 above both growth and margin cuts sit at 15.2x, against 9.0x for the name below both. Permanent staffing, skilled mix and quality mix remain practical tests of whether that balance can hold. 4 Agreed Transaction Prices Leave Room for Strategic Fit Across 9 recorded transactions, what buyers agreed to pay ranges from 7.7x to 23.4x on disclosed EBITDA benchmarks. Licences, referral density, clinical capacity and buyer type can shape how a business fits within that range. 13.0x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 9 rated of 10 companies 15.3x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 9.6x at the discount end top quartile (n=3) against bottom quartile (n=2) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 41 Transactions with disclosed terms 80 recorded in this tier · 2 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix

  4. 04
    SECTION 02

    02

    This divider introduces Section 02, on how the peer set's shared classification masks different operating economics.

    We move now into the landscape section, where a single sector label still contains distinct operating economics. Payer mix, staffing, asset structure and local density are the differences that matter.

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    SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Most of the Set Shares One Label, but the Economics Still Differ Payer mix, staffing, asset structure and local market density remain important distinctions within the peer set. 02 of 06 Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4

  5. 05
    02 · MARKET MAP

    One Sector Label Contains Meaningfully Different Operating Economics

    This slide groups ten approved companies by business segment and compares median forward EV/EBITDA across those groups.

    We group the ten approved companies by business segment and compare median EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus within each group. The medians differ meaningfully across segments, even though every company carries the same sector label. That gap is the first sign that a single classification does not guarantee comparable economics, so segment context matters before any multiple is read at face value.

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    02 · MARKET MAP One Sector Label Contains Meaningfully Different Operating Economics 10 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 POST-ACUTE AND SKILLED NURSING FACILITY OPERATORS 10 cos median 13.0x The Ensign Group (ENSG) PACS Group (PACS) Brookdale Senior (BKD) Chemed (CHE) Option Care Health (OPCH) Aveanna (AVAH) Sonida Senior (SNDA) Addus HomeCare (ADUS) The Pennant Group (PNTG) Innovage Holding (INNV) The group shares reimbursement and labor exposure, while payer mix, care setting, asset structure and local density can produce different earnings profiles.

  6. 06
    02 · LANDSCAPE

    A Shared Classification Does Not Make the Peer Set Economically Uniform

    This slide details what each segment does and why its economics differ, using median EV/EBITDA on rated names.

    We break down what each segment actually does and why its economics diverge, anchored to EV/EBITDA medians on rated names. The appendix carries the full company-level detail behind these groupings. So a reader can trace any segment view back to the individual names driving it.

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    02 · LANDSCAPE A Shared Classification Does Not Make the Peer Set Economically Uniform Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators 10 100% 13.0x The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG) · PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) · +8 more Local economics still matter. These operators manage labor-intensive care across home-based, senior living and skilled settings. Census quality, referral density, reimbursement exposure, staffing depth and leased versus owned assets can change the durability of earnings.

  7. 07
    SECTION 03

    03

    This divider introduces Section 03, on how faster growth aligns with higher forward valuations.

    We turn next to valuation itself, where faster growth sits with higher forward multiples more clearly than margin does. The following pages test that pattern across the rated set.

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    SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS Faster Growth Sits with Higher Forward Valuations The pattern is visible in a small set, while margin alone offers less separation. 03 of 06 Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7

  8. 08
    03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION

    The Premium End Carries a Material Forward Earnings Advantage

    This slide ranks all nine rated companies by EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus against a sector median of 13.0x.

    We rank all nine rated companies by forward EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus, with the sector median at 13.0x. The spread from the premium end down to the discount end is wide enough that tier placement carries real information. So where a name sits in that ranking is a useful starting point for judging what the market already expects from it.

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    03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION The Premium End Carries a Material Forward Earnings Advantage EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 9 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 13.0x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 15.3x CORE · median 11.9x DISCOUNT · median 9.6x Sector median 13.0x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The range stays wide. The premium tier sits at 15.3x, compared with 9.6x for the discount tier. That spread remains after using the same CY2027E EV / EBITDA lens. Forecasts already credit growth. A forward earnings multiple incorporates expected growth. A premium that remains can therefore sit alongside confidence in the durability and conversion of those earnings. Operating quality needs testing. Agency labor exposure, payer mix, census quality, referral density and fixed-charge coverage provide a practical framework for testing why operators occupy different ends of the range.

  9. 09
    03 · VALUATION DRIVERS

    Faster Growth Has the Clearer Valuation Association in This Small Set

    This slide compares median EV/EBITDA across revenue-growth cohorts and EBITDA-margin cohorts, split at their covered medians.

    We split the rated set into faster- and slower-growth cohorts, and separately into higher- and lower-margin cohorts, each cut at its own covered median. Growth shows the clearer association with valuation: faster-growing names sit at 15.1x versus 10.2x for slower ones. Margin cohorts show less separation by comparison. So growth, more than margin, is the variable worth watching first in this set, though the sample stays small enough to keep the read directional.

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    03 · VALUATION DRIVERS Faster Growth Has the Clearer Valuation Association in This Small Set Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=5; slower n=4; higher-margin n=5; lower-margin n=4). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at 8% · EBITDA-margin split at 12% Growth Provides the Clearer Split On the 9 names with a forward estimate, 5 at or above 8% carry 15.1x, while 4 below the cut carry 10.2x. The result supports attention to growth, with appropriate caution around the small base. Margin Alone Provides Less Separation The higher-margin group does not consistently occupy the premium tier. Labor mix, reimbursement quality and fixed costs may be more informative than the reported margin in isolation. Earnings Quality Remains the Open Test A durable case rests on permanent staffing, defensible payer mix, healthy census and consistent quality performance. Those operating traits are not fully captured by the tested growth and margin cuts.

  10. 10
    03 · SITUATION MAP

    The Higher-Valuation Group Is Concentrated Among Faster-Growing Operators

    This slide maps companies by EV/EBITDA versus the sector median and by revenue growth versus the covered median, as observations rather than recommendations.

    We cut the rated set on EV/EBITDA against the 13.0x sector median and on revenue growth against the covered median, producing four situations rather than a single score. The higher-valuation names cluster where growth also clears its own bar. This is a map of where companies sit today, not a recommendation, so the value is in seeing which combination of growth and multiple a given name actually occupies.

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    03 · SITUATION MAP The Higher-Valuation Group Is Concentrated Among Faster-Growing Operators Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (13.0x) (rows) and revenue growth vs the covered median (8%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Higher Valuation, Faster Growth Above-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 4 names The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG) · PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) · Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA) · +1 more Four names combine above-middle growth with above-middle valuation. Their next test is whether staffing, payer mix and census quality can sustain the forecast earnings profile. Higher Valuation, Slower Growth Above-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 1 names Chemed Corporation (CHE) One name holds an above-middle valuation despite slower growth. Its positioning suggests that factors beyond the tested growth measure may support the market view. Lower Valuation, Faster Growth Below-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 1 names Innovage Holding Corp. (INNV) One name pairs faster growth with a below-middle valuation. The gap points to questions around earnings conversion, durability or operating risk. Lower Valuation, Slower Growth Below-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 3 names Option Care Health, Inc. (OPCH) · Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) · Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS) Three names sit below the middle on both measures. The operating agenda is to improve revenue quality, cost structure and local market density before expecting a different valuation position.

  11. 11
    03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY

    Clearing Both Operating Bars Sits with a Higher Forward Valuation

    This slide plots revenue growth against EBITDA margin for nine companies and shows median EV/EBITDA by quadrant.

    We plot revenue growth on CY2027E consensus against EBITDA margin on CY2025A actuals for the nine companies with both estimates, cut at the covered medians. The quadrant that clears both bars carries the highest median EV/EBITDA of the four; the quadrant clearing neither carries the lowest. So the combination of growth and margin, not either alone, looks like the sharper signal in this set, even with only a handful of names in each quadrant.

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    03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY Clearing Both Operating Bars Sits with a Higher Forward Valuation Revenue growth (CY2027E, x-axis) vs EBITDA margin (CY2025A, y-axis) · 9 companies with both estimates · cuts at the covered medians (8% growth, 12% margin) · median EV/EBITDA per quadrant · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Quadrant cuts are the covered set's medians. Quadrant medians on names with a meaningful EV/EBITDA (balanced n=2; margin-only n=3; growth-only n=3; neither n=1). Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 5% 8% 10% 12% 15% 18% 10% 15% MARGIN ONLY median 10.2x BALANCED median 15.2x NEITHER median 9.0x GROWTH ONLY median 14.4x ADUS CHE OPCH AVAH PNTG INNV PACS ENSG SNDA x: revenue growth (CY2027E) · y: EBITDA margin (CY2025A) HOW TO READ THIS The chart uses growth and margin cuts to place the 9 names with forward estimates. The 2 names above both cuts sit at 15.2x, while the name below both sits at 9.0x. Three names clear only the margin cut and three clear only the growth cut. The result is an observed association, not proof that either measure sets valuation. Rule of 40 (revenue growth + EBITDA margin ≥ 40%): 0 of 9 names clear it.

  12. 12
    03 · THE AGENDA

    The Next Move Depends on the Source of Earnings Durability

    This slide frames the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve about the source of earnings durability.

    We turn the valuation pattern into a set of questions: is faster growth here durable, and is it built on staffing, payer mix or something else that could weaken. These are framed as open questions grounded in the cohort data already shown, not settled conclusions. So the practical next step is testing which of those sources actually explains a given name's growth before pricing it in.

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    03 · THE AGENDA The Next Move Depends on the Source of Earnings Durability NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12 Build Denser Local Operations Test whether referral concentration, caregiver availability and overlapping clinical capacity can improve census quality and reduce staffing friction. What changes the answer: The answer changes when added density improves labor coverage and referral flow without weakening payer mix. Improve the Quality of Growth Examine which services, payers and markets add durable earnings rather than volume that depends on agency labor or delayed rate support. What changes the answer: The answer changes when growth carries stable staffing, sound reimbursement and consistent quality performance. Rework the Asset Structure In the one market shown, test whether owned assets, leases and fixed-charge coverage support operating flexibility and capital allocation. What changes the answer: The answer changes when the revised structure improves coverage and preserves room to invest in care delivery.

  13. 13
    SECTION 04

    04

    This divider introduces Section 04, on the range of prices buyers have agreed to pay across the peer set's history.

    We shift now to the transaction record, where agreed prices span a wide range across buyer types. The next pages walk through specific cases and the full list behind them.

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    SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS Agreed Prices Span a Wide Range Across Buyer Types The transaction record shows room for different operating models, strategic fit and earnings profiles. 04 of 06 Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13

  14. 14
    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES

    Precedent Transactions Show Buyers Agreeing to Different Earnings Benchmarks

    This slide walks through two precedent transactions with disclosed terms as case studies, out of the full list in the appendix.

    We walk through two of the transactions with disclosed terms as case studies, each priced on LTM financials at announcement. These multiples sit on a different basis than the CY2027E public multiples used elsewhere in this report, so no direct spread is claimed between the two. The full list of transactions with disclosed terms sits in the appendix. So each case is best read as evidence of how a specific buyer justified its price, not as a data point on the public comp curve.

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    04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Precedent Transactions Show Buyers Agreeing to Different Earnings Benchmarks 2 of 41 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 102 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 39 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14 Nov-2025 $3.9B Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe acquires Select Medical Holdings Corporation EV / LTM revenue 1.0x EV / LTM EBITDA 7.7x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED The pairing suggests sponsor interest in scaled post-acute operations with an established operating base. The transaction size indicates a whole-company commitment rather than a small local addition. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The completed transaction records 1.0x revenue and 7.7x EBITDA. The EBITDA benchmark sits below the middle of the current forward public range. Feb-2026 $1.2B Kinderhook Industries, LLC acquires Enhabit, Inc. EV / LTM revenue 1.1x EV / LTM EBITDA 11.5x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED The pairing suggests sponsor interest in regulated care capacity and a platform that can support further operating development. The announced structure places the transaction among the most current references in the set. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The announced transaction records 1.1x revenue and 11.5x EBITDA. The EBITDA benchmark sits below the middle of the current forward public range.

  15. 15
    SECTION 05

    05

    This divider introduces Section 05, on how owners can strengthen the earnings story behind their forecasts.

    We close the analysis by turning to what owners can do next: staffing, payer mix, local density and capital structure all show up as levers for durability. The final pages lay out those implications by audience.

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    SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Strengthen the Earnings Story Behind the Forecast Owners can focus on staffing, payer mix, local density and capital structure to improve durability. 05 of 06 Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

    The Higher Multiples Here Sit with Names Whose Forecast Earnings Look Durable

    This slide sets out the questions this data raises for owners, operators and boards over the next twelve months.

    We translate the valuation pattern into practical questions for the next twelve months: where does growth come from, and does the staffing and payer base behind it look durable. These are framed as observations grounded in the analysis shown, not as recommendations to act. So the immediate task is testing a given operator's own growth against the same durability questions before assuming its multiple will hold.

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    05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS The Higher Multiples Here Sit with Names Whose Forecast Earnings Look Durable NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16 FOR OWNERS Choose Growth with Better Economics Prioritize service lines and markets where payer mix, staffing depth and referral density support repeatable earnings rather than volume alone. FOR OPERATORS Turn Staffing into an Advantage Reduce reliance on agency labor, deepen caregiver retention and align clinical capacity with local census. The benefit is a more resilient cost base and more consistent care delivery. FOR BOARDS Test Capital Against Local Density Frame build-versus-buy choices around licences, referral networks, staffing depth and fixed-charge coverage. Capital should follow markets where those elements reinforce one another.

  17. 17
    SECTION 06

    06

    06.

    Section 06 of 06 — The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources. Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. Use this divider to reset the room before the section's pages; the progress dots show where the argument stands. 17

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    SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)

    Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier

    This slide lists all nine rated companies grouped by valuation tier against the 13.0x sector median, plus the one unrated name.

    We list all nine rated companies here, grouped above and below the 13.0x sector median, alongside the one name without an eligible multiple. Every row links back to its underlying source. So this page is the complete public comparable set behind every chart shown earlier in the deck.

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    06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (13.0x); amber marks below · 9 rated companies; 1 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 9 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥15.1x · median 15.3x · 3 companies The Pennant Group, Inc. PNTG Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators $1.9B 17.2x 8% 8% 17 Sonida Senior Living, Inc. SNDA Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators $3.3B 15.3x 18% 14% 43 The Ensign Group, Inc. ENSG Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators $12.0B 15.1x 10% 12% 22 CORE — 10.2x–15.1x · median 11.9x · 4 companies PACS Group, Inc. PACS Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators $10.0B 14.4x 9% 10% 20 Chemed Corporation CHE Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators $7.0B 13.0x 6% 18% 25 Innovage Holding Corp. INNV Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators $1.2B 10.7x 8% 7% 18 Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. AVAH Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators $4.1B 10.2x 8% 13% 21 DISCOUNT — <10.2x · median 9.6x · 2 companies Addus HomeCare Corporation ADUS Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators $2.1B 10.2x 5% 13% 18 Option Care Health, Inc. OPCH Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators $4.7B 9.0x 7% 8% 15

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This slide lists the first half of the transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, with multiples on LTM financials at announcement.

    We list transactions with disclosed terms here, newest first, each priced on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed. Deal values link back to the underlying filing for anyone who wants to check the source. So this is the primary evidence behind the precedent-transaction observations made earlier in the report.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 41 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (80 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 102 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 39 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 41 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Feb-2026 Kinderhook Industries, LLC → Enhabit, Inc. $1.2B 1.1x 11.5x The announced agreement records $1.2B, 1.1x revenue and 11.5x EBITDA. It adds a current reference for a sector platform with operating capacity across regulated care settings. Nov-2025 Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe → Select Medical Holdings Corporation $3.9B 1.0x 7.7x The completed transaction records $3.9B, 1.0x revenue and 7.7x EBITDA. The benchmark sits below the middle of the current forward public range. Jun-2024 Addus Home Care Corporation → Curo Health Services, LLC (d/b/a Gentiva) n/a 0.7x n/a The announced transaction records 0.7x revenue. The pairing suggests interest in extending home-based care capacity through an operator-led acquisition. Jun-2023 United Rentals, Inc. → Amedisys, Inc. n/a n/a 8.2x The announced agreement records 8.2x EBITDA. It broadens the transaction range available for comparing whole-company agreements. Apr-2022 Humana Inc. → Kindred at Home Hospice and Personal Care n/a n/a 12.5x The announced agreement records 12.5x EBITDA. The transaction suggests interest in hospice and personal care capabilities within a broader care model. Apr-2022 Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, LLC → Kindred Healthcare, LLC n/a n/a 12.0x The announced agreement records 12.0x EBITDA. The pairing suggests sponsor interest in a diversified healthcare operating platform. Jan-2022 Optum, Inc. → LHC Group, Inc. n/a n/a 22.8x The announced agreement records 22.8x EBITDA. The pairing suggests interest in home-based capabilities within a broader health services model. Oct-2021 EQT AB → Enhabit Home Health & Hospice n/a n/a 23.4x The announced agreement records 23.4x EBITDA. It marks the upper end of the disclosed EBITDA benchmarks in the transaction record. Sep-2021 Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. → Comfort Care Home Health Services, LLC n/a n/a 13.8x The completed transaction records 13.8x EBITDA. The pairing suggests an operator-led addition of home health capacity.

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    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)

    All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First

    This slide continues the list of transactions with disclosed terms, completing the record shown across the two pages.

    We continue the same list here, completing the record of transactions with disclosed terms. Together with the prior page, this carries the full set behind the deal-multiple observations in the body of the report. So a reader can check any single transaction referenced earlier against its full record here.

    Everything on this page

    06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 41 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (80 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 102 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 39 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. 18 of 41 transactions shown; the rest are in the companion workbook. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 20 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Aug-2021 DAC Acquisition → Diversicare n/a 0.8x 4.7x Apr-2021 Humana Inc. → Kindred Healthcare, LLC n/a n/a 11.0x Feb-2021 February 2021 → Bright Spring Health Services, Inc n/a n/a 16.0x Oct-2020 H.I.G Capital, LLC → St. Croix Hospice LLC n/a n/a 16.6x Oct-2020 Thomas H. Lee Partners, L.P. → Care Hospice, Inc. n/a n/a 15.0x Sep-2020 Vistria Group, LP and Centerbridge Partners LP → Help at Home, LLC n/a n/a 12.2x Aug-2020 KKR & Co. Inc. → Capital Senior Living Corp n/a 5.4x 27.5x Oct-2019 Towerbrook Capital Partners LP and AscensionHealth, Inc. → Hospice Compassus, Inc. n/a n/a 11.8x May-2019 Advent International Corporation → AccentCare, Inc. n/a n/a 11.9x

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    06 · METHODOLOGY

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality.

    Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. 21

    Everything on this page

    06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 21 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Home Health and Long-Term Care and it clears the coverage gate with 9 of 10 companies (90%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 9 of the 9 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 7 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 465 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (464) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.

  22. 22

    Higher Valuations Sit with Growth, While Durable Earnings Remain the Deeper Test.

    This is the closing slide summarizing that higher valuations sit with growth while durable earnings remain the deeper test.

    We leave the room with one line: higher valuations sit with growth, but durable earnings remain the deeper test. The companion tables carry the full universe and source index for any figure a client wants to trace further.

    Everything on this page

    Higher Valuations Sit with Growth, While Durable Earnings Remain the Deeper Test. NeuraCap AI — Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Home Health and Long-Term Care Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 22

Sources and methodology

This report covers Home Health and Long-Term Care (Health Care › Health Care Equipment and Services › Home Health and Long-Term Care) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 10 listed companies whose core business is Home Health and Long-Term Care according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS), Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH), Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD), Chemed Corporation (CHE), The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG), Innovage Holding Corp. (INNV), Option Care Health, Inc. (OPCH), PACS Group, Inc. (PACS), The Pennant Group, Inc. (PNTG), Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA). The market map groups them by business vertical — Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators: 10 companies (ENSG, PACS, BKD, CHE, OPCH, AVAH, SNDA, ADUS, PNTG, INNV). 9 of the 10 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.

Scope and company universe

This report covers Home Health and Long-Term Care (Health Care › Health Care Equipment and Services › Home Health and Long-Term Care) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 10 listed companies whose core business is Home Health and Long-Term Care according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS), Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH), Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD), Chemed Corporation (CHE), The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG), Innovage Holding Corp. (INNV), Option Care Health, Inc. (OPCH), PACS Group, Inc. (PACS), The Pennant Group, Inc. (PNTG), Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA). The market map groups them by business vertical — Post-acute and skilled nursing facility operators: 10 companies (ENSG, PACS, BKD, CHE, OPCH, AVAH, SNDA, ADUS, PNTG, INNV). 9 of the 10 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.

What was excluded and why

7 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (7 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: BKD — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · BKD — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · INNV — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SNDA — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SNDA — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SNDA — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · SNDA — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)

Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen

Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Home Health and Long-Term Care and it clears the coverage gate with 9 of 10 companies (90%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 9 of the 9 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 9 of 10 companies; EV / rEVenue: 10 of 10 companies; P/E: 9 of 10 companies. 1 company shows a non-meaningful P / E denominator and is excluded from that statistic.

How the multiples and statistics are computed

Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥15.1x, Core 10.2x–15.1x, Discount <10.2x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 13.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) (9 rated companies) · 15.3x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=3) · 11.9x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Core tier (n=4) · 9.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=2) · 15.1x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth ≥ 8% (n=5) · 10.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth < 8% (n=4) · 13.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin ≥ 12% (n=5) · 12.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin < 12% (n=4) · 19% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=9) · 15.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within balanced quadrant (n=2) · 10.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within marginOnly quadrant (n=3) · 14.4x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within growthOnly quadrant (n=3) · 9.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within neither quadrant (n=1)

Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why

The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Home Health and Long-Term Care recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 80 transactions were recorded for this industry; 41 are shown. 39 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 26 × deal value unit unresolved; 65 × no evidence record; 7 × duplicate precedent id; 1 × self transaction; 1 × divestiture roles reassigned; 2 × financial target ev not meaningful. Case studies lead with the 2 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.

Sources

Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 28, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 469 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.

Interpretation and important notice

Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.

This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.

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