Food Distributors Sector Outlook — September 2026
A sector outlook on U.S. food distributors covering ten public companies, forward valuation on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), precedent transactions and the operating levers — mix, route density and category depth — that separate the premium tier from the rest of the peer set.
Key figures
- 8.0x
- Sector Median Forward Multiple EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), 7 of 10 rated
- 9.7x
- Premium Tier Multiple EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), premium end
- 5.4x
- Discount Tier Multiple EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), discount end
- 70%
- Route-Based Share of Peer Set Independent restaurant and ethnic foodservice distribution
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1 / 21 · CONSUMER STAPLES › CONSUMER STAPLES DISTRIBUTION AND RETAIL › FOOD DISTRIBUTORS
Executive summary
Across the ten-company food distributors universe, the seven rated names trade at a median 8.0x EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus, with the premium tier at 9.7x against 5.4x at the discount end. Faster-growth names carry a 9.6x median versus 6.2x for slower-growth peers, an association rather than a proven cause. Route-based distribution accounts for 70% of the peer set, and gross profit per case, route density and mix remain the operating levers most closely tied to the multiples the market is paying.
Key findings
- The premium tier trades at 9.7x EV/EBITDA versus 5.4x at the discount end.
- Faster-growth names carry 9.6x versus 6.2x for slower-growth peers.
- Route-based distribution makes up 70% of the peer set; adjacent models 30%.
- Sector median forward multiple sits at 8.0x across 7 of 10 rated companies.
What each page shows
The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.
- 01
CONSUMER STAPLES › CONSUMER STAPLES DISTRIBUTION AND RETAIL › FOOD DISTRIBUTORS
This is the cover page introducing the Food Distributors sector outlook as of September 2026.
We open with the food distributors landscape as of September 28, 2026, using EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus as our primary valuation lens. This report shows how business mix, earnings quality and route economics shape value across the peer set — setting up the argument we build slide by slide.
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CONSUMER STAPLES › CONSUMER STAPLES DISTRIBUTION AND RETAIL › FOOD DISTRIBUTORS Food Distributors: Growth Sits with the Premium This report shows how business mix, earnings quality and route economics shape value across the peer set. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1
- 02CONTENTS
What This Report Covers
This slide lists the report's five sections plus the appendix.
We move through five sections — the bottom line, the landscape, valuation and situations, precedent transactions and strategic implications — plus a full appendix. Section one carries the complete answer on its own, so a reader who stops there still leaves with the whole story. Everything after it builds the evidence for that conclusion.
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CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Food Distributors Reward Growth, Earnings Quality and Dense Routes 02 The Landscape Scale Distribution Dominates the Set, but Adjacent Models Broaden the Value Range 03 Valuation & Situations The Premium End Combines Faster Growth with More Defensible Earnings 04 Precedent Transactions Strategic Buyers Keep Reaching for Route Density, Category Depth and Scale 05 Strategic Implications Value Builds Through Better Mix, Denser Routes and More Gross Profit per Case 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2
- 0301 · THE BOTTOM LINE
Food Distributors Split Between Route-Based Scale and Adjacent Branded or Produce Models
This slide states the bottom line: the sector splits between route-based scale and adjacent branded or produce models, on an EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) basis as of 2026-09-28.
Across the ten companies in this universe, seven carry a forward EV/EBITDA estimate on CY2027E consensus, and that rated group sits at a median of 8.0x. The premium end trades at 9.7x while the discount end sits at 5.4x, a gap that reflects how much confidence the market places in growth durability and earnings quality. Independent restaurant and ethnic foodservice distribution makes up 70% of the peer set, with adjacent branded or produce models at 30%. So the question this report answers is what separates the premium holders from the rest — and the following sections walk through exactly that.
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01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Food Distributors Split Between Route-Based Scale and Adjacent Branded or Produce Models The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 Forward Pricing Already Credits Forecast Earnings The 7 of 10 companies with a forward EV / EBITDA estimate sit at 8.0x in the middle of the range. That forward lens already credits forecast earnings, so a premium alongside it signals expected durability. 2 The Two Ends Carry Clearly Different Expectations The premium end sits at 9.7x, while the discount end sits at 5.4x. The gap frames how much confidence investors place in earnings quality and execution. 3 Faster Growth Sits with Higher Forward Pricing On the 7 companies with a forward estimate, the faster-growth group sits at 9.6x versus 6.2x for the slower-growth group. The observed premium is associated with growth that persists through the forecast period. 4 Route Economics Still Define the Core Operating Agenda Independent restaurant and ethnic foodservice distribution represents 70% of the peer set, while adjacent models represent 30%. Gross profit per case, street mix and route density remain central to the quality of earnings. 8.0x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 7 rated of 10 companies 9.7x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 5.4x at the discount end top quartile (n=3) against bottom quartile (n=2) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 12 Transactions with disclosed terms 31 recorded in this tier · 3 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix
- 04SECTION 02
02
This divider introduces Section 02, covering the market map and landscape of business segments.
We now turn to how the ten companies group by business segment — route-based scale distributors versus adjacent branded or produce models. Each group carries distinct operating priorities that show up directly in how the market prices them.
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SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Scale Distribution Dominates the Set, but Adjacent Models Broaden the Value Range Route-based distributors and adjacent branded or produce models carry distinct operating priorities. 02 of 06 Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4
- 0502 · MARKET MAP
Route-Based Scale Anchors the Sector While Adjacent Models Extend the Range
This slide maps all approved companies by business segment with median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) per group as of 2026-09-28.
We group the approved companies by business segment and show the median EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus for each group. Route-based scale distribution anchors the sector, while adjacent branded or produce models extend the valuation range in both directions. This segment lens is the foundation for the situation analysis that follows — so it's worth fixing the groupings before we get into multiples.
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02 · MARKET MAP Route-Based Scale Anchors the Sector While Adjacent Models Extend the Range 10 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 INDEPENDENT RESTAURANT AND ETHNIC FOODSERVICE DISTRIBUTION 7 cos median 8.7x Sysco (SYY) US Foods Holding (USFD) Performance Food (PFGC) United Natural (UNFI) The Chefs' (CHEF) Mission Produce (AVO) HF Foods Group (HFFG) These businesses turn route density, street accounts and category breadth into recurring gross profit dollars. ADJACENT MODELS 3 cos median 8.0x Celsius Holdings (CELH) Dole (DOLE) BRC (BRCC) Branded beverage, packaged food and produce exposure adds different growth, margin and cold-chain characteristics.
- 0602 · LANDSCAPE
The Larger Segment Carries Route Economics; Adjacent Models Carry Distinct Growth Profiles
This slide contrasts route economics in the larger segment against the distinct growth profiles of adjacent models, using EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names.
The larger segment in this universe runs on route economics — density, drop size and gross profit per case — while the adjacent models carry their own growth profiles. Segment medians on rated names show these are genuinely different businesses being priced on a common forward multiple. Understanding that distinction is what lets us read the valuation spread correctly rather than treating the sector as one undifferentiated group.
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02 · LANDSCAPE The Larger Segment Carries Route Economics; Adjacent Models Carry Distinct Growth Profiles Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Independent restaurant and ethnic foodservice distribution 7 70% 8.7x Sysco Corporation (SYY) · US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) · +5 more Density compounds route economics. This group spans broadline, specialty and ethnic foodservice models and sits at 8.7x. Street mix, drop size, private brand penetration and cost per case shape the earnings profile. Adjacent models 3 30% 8.0x Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) · Dole plc (DOLE) · +1 more Different models widen the range. This group includes branded beverage, packaged food and grower-packer-shipper exposure and sits at 8.0x. Brand demand, category position and cold-chain control sit alongside traditional route economics.
- 07SECTION 03
03
This divider introduces Section 03, covering public market valuation and what separates the premium tier.
Next we look at forward valuation directly: EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus already prices in the growth analysts expect. That means any further premium has to be earned on durability — which is exactly what the next few pages test.
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SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Premium End Combines Faster Growth with More Defensible Earnings Forward EV / EBITDA already credits forecast growth, leaving durability as the key test. 03 of 06 Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7
- 0803 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION
The Premium End Holds a Clear Forward Valuation Advantage
This slide ranks the rated companies by EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) against a sector median of 8.0x as of 2026-09-28.
Sorting the rated companies by forward multiple, the sector median lands at 8.0x, with the premium tier holding a clear advantage over the rest of the set. Because this is a forward multiple, the growth story is already in the price — so a name trading above median is being asked to prove that growth will actually show up. The tier cuts on this page frame where each company sits relative to that bar.
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03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION The Premium End Holds a Clear Forward Valuation Advantage EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 7 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 8.0x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 9.7x CORE · median 7.9x DISCOUNT · median 5.4x Sector median 8.0x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top carries growth. The premium end sits at 9.7x, compared with 5.4x at the discount end. A forward multiple already credits forecast growth, so the remaining spread points to confidence in durability. Mix shapes earnings quality. Street accounts, private and exclusive brands, and category depth can support gross profit per case without relying on case volume alone. Density protects operating progress. Route density, drop size and night selection productivity help convert gross profit dollars into more durable EBITDA.
- 0903 · VALUATION DRIVERS
Faster-Growth Names Carry the Higher Forward Multiple
This slide splits rated companies with estimates into revenue-growth and EBITDA-margin cohorts, showing median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) for each.
Splitting the rated names into faster- and slower-growth cohorts, the faster group holds a median of 9.6x against 6.2x for the slower group. The same split by margin shows a similar pattern, though with fewer names in each cohort. This is an association we observe in the data, not a claim that growth causes the multiple — but it's a strong enough pattern to make growth durability the central question for the rest of this section.
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03 · VALUATION DRIVERS Faster-Growth Names Carry the Higher Forward Multiple Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=4; slower n=3; higher-margin n=4; lower-margin n=3). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at 6% · EBITDA-margin split at 4% Growth Separates the Two Forward Valuation Groups On the 7 companies with a forward estimate, names at or above 6% growth sit at 9.6x, while those below 6% sit at 6.2x. This is an observed association, not evidence that growth alone determines value. Gross Profit per Case Gives Growth More Substance Case growth carries greater commercial weight when mix, private brand penetration and category depth preserve gross profit dollars. Route Productivity Supports Earnings Durability Drop size, stops per route and cost per case show whether added volume improves network economics or merely fills capacity.
- 1003 · SITUATION MAP
Margin and Valuation Together Sort the Premium Holders from the Operating Repair Stories
This slide cuts the peer set on EV/EBITDA versus the sector median (8.0x) and EBITDA margin versus the covered median (4%) to sort distinct situations.
Cutting the universe on valuation versus the 8.0x sector median and margin versus the 4% covered median separates premium holders from names still working through an operating repair story. This is a map of situations, not a set of recommendations — it tells us where each company sits, not what to do about it. That's useful because the operating agenda differs sharply depending on which quadrant a company falls into, which is exactly what the next page addresses.
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03 · SITUATION MAP Margin and Valuation Together Sort the Premium Holders from the Operating Repair Stories Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (8.0x) (rows) and EBITDA margin vs the covered median (4%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Premium with Higher Margin Above-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 3 names Sysco Corporation (SYY) · Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) · BRC Inc. (BRCC) These names pair above-reference pricing with above-reference margins. The operating task is to sustain growth, mix and network productivity already reflected in expectations. Premium with Lower Margin Above-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 1 names Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) This position carries premium pricing despite a below-reference margin. Durable growth and a credible path from gross profit per case to EBITDA matter most here. Lower Pricing with Higher Margin Below-median multiple · above-median EBITDA margin 1 names Dole plc (DOLE) This position shows that margin alone does not secure premium pricing. Growth quality, customer mix and confidence in earnings durability remain open questions. Lower Pricing with Lower Margin Below-median multiple · below-median EBITDA margin 2 names United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) · HF Foods Group Inc. (HFFG) These names face pressure on both valuation and profitability. Mix, route density, cost per case and capital allocation define the operating agenda.
- 1103 · THE AGENDA
Closing a Margin Gap and Closing a Growth Gap Call for Different Operating Moves
This slide frames the different operating questions facing companies with a margin gap versus a growth gap.
A margin gap and a growth gap call for different fixes: one is an operating cost and productivity question, the other is a commercial mix and category question. We frame these as questions an owner or acquirer should resolve, not as directives — the data points to the gap, not the specific remedy. Getting this diagnosis right before committing capital is the practical value of the situation map on the prior page.
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03 · THE AGENDA Closing a Margin Gap and Closing a Growth Gap Call for Different Operating Moves NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 Deepen Street and Independent Account Mix Concentrate commercial effort where category depth, service levels and private brand penetration can improve gross profit per case. What changes the answer: Retention and gross profit per case improve alongside the mix shift. Build Density Before Adding Capacity Prioritise cut-in opportunities, drop size and route concentration before committing capital to a fold-out distribution centre. What changes the answer: Existing routes approach capacity with stable service levels and customer retention. Expand Categories Through the Same Delivery Use centre-of-plate, produce or specialty distribution depth to capture more gross profit dollars from existing customer relationships. What changes the answer: Cross-sell raises gross profit per stop without weakening fill rate or selection productivity. Reset the Cost per Case Address warehouse labour, night selection, fleet use and under-utilised capacity where volume is not translating into EBITDA. What changes the answer: Case growth continues while cost per case and margin remain below plan.
- 12SECTION 04
04
This divider introduces Section 04, covering precedent transactions in the sector.
We now turn from public trading multiples to what buyers have actually paid in precedent deals. Strategic buyers in this sector have consistently reached for route density, category depth and scale.
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SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS Strategic Buyers Keep Reaching for Route Density, Category Depth and Scale Precedent transactions span broadline consolidation, specialty distribution and adjacent supply models. 04 of 06 Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12
- 1304 · DEAL CASE STUDIES
Precedent Transactions Point to Scale and Strategic Fit in What Buyers Agreed to Pay
This slide presents a subset of disclosed-terms precedent transactions as case studies, with multiples on LTM financials at announcement.
We walk through a set of precedent transactions with disclosed terms as case studies, each priced on LTM financials at announcement. These deal multiples sit on a different basis than the CY2027E public multiples we've shown so far, so we don't draw a direct spread between the two. What they do show is a consistent buyer logic — reaching for density, category depth and scale — that lines up with the same operating priorities the public market is already pricing.
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04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Precedent Transactions Point to Scale and Strategic Fit in What Buyers Agreed to Pay 3 of 12 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 37 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 19 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13 Sep-2025 $22.9B Performance Food Group Company acquires US Foods Holding Corp EV / LTM revenue 0.6x EV / LTM EBITDA 12.6x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Performance Food Group Company announced its transaction for US Foods Holding Corp. The combination suggests a strategic emphasis on customer reach, purchasing scale and route density. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The announced transaction carried a value of $22.9B, with 0.6x EV / Revenue and 12.6x EV / EBITDA. The EBITDA multiple sits above the public peer range presented in this report. Apr-2017 $375M SUPERVALU INC. acquires Unified Grocers, Inc. EV / LTM revenue n/a EV / LTM EBITDA 10.9x WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED The transaction provides another sector reference alongside strategic foodservice combinations. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED Its relevance is as a sector precedent within the broader transaction set. Mar-2026 $29.1B New Slider Holdco, Inc. New Slider Holdco, Inc. Put a Large Value on Jetro Restaurant Depot EV / LTM revenue n/a EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED New Slider Holdco, Inc. announced its transaction for Jetro Restaurant Depot. The pairing suggests interest in a scaled restaurant-focused platform with established customer and sourcing relationships. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The announced transaction carried a recorded value of $29.1B. It stands as a large-value reference within the precedent transaction set.
- 14SECTION 05
05
This divider introduces Section 05, covering the strategic operating agenda.
The final analytical section connects everything back to the operating levers that build value: mix, route density and gross profit per case. These are the levers that turn the valuation pattern we've shown into an actionable agenda.
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SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Value Builds Through Better Mix, Denser Routes and More Gross Profit per Case The operating agenda should connect customer mix, category depth and network productivity. 05 of 06 Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14
- 1505 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
The Names Earning More per Route Are the Ones Holding the Higher Multiples
This slide argues that companies earning more per route are the ones holding the higher public market multiples.
The pattern across this report is consistent: names generating more value per route are the ones the market rewards with a higher multiple. That puts mix, category depth and route density at the center of the operating agenda for the next twelve months. These are observations grounded in the data shown earlier, not a specific recommendation for any one company — but they set the questions worth asking internally.
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05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS The Names Earning More per Route Are the Ones Holding the Higher Multiples NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15 FOR OWNERS Make Mix Visible in Operating Decisions Allocate selling resources and category investment toward accounts that support retention, gross profit per case and productive drop sizes. FOR OPERATORS Connect Volume to Network Productivity Track whether added cases improve stops per route, selector productivity and fixed-cost absorption rather than treating volume as the objective. FOR BOARDS Set Capital Against Density Test distribution-centre, fleet and acquisition plans against customer concentration, route density and the ability to cross-sell through existing deliveries.
- 16SECTION 06
06
This divider introduces Section 06, the full comparables universe, methodology and sources.
The final section carries the full comparables set, the transaction detail and the methodology behind every figure in this report. It's the reference section for anyone who wants to trace a number back to its source.
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SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16
- 1706 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)
Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier
This appendix lists the rated and unrated companies on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), grouped by valuation tier.
This page carries every rated company behind the multiples shown earlier, shaded above or below the 8.0x sector median, alongside the companies without an eligible forward multiple. It's the full company-level detail supporting every chart in the body of this report. Anyone wanting to check a single name's basis can start here.
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06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (8.0x); amber marks below · 7 rated companies; 3 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 7 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥9.6x · median 9.7x · 3 companies Celsius Holdings, Inc. CELH Adjacent: branded beverage supply into distributor… $9.1B 11.4x 8% 23% 32 Performance Food Group Co PFGC Independent restaurant and ethnic foodservice… $22.2B 9.7x 7% 3% 10 Sysco Corporation SYY Independent restaurant and ethnic foodservice… $51.0B 9.6x 6% 5% 12 CORE — 7.0x–9.6x · median 7.9x · 2 companies BRC Inc. BRCC Adjacent: centre-of-store packaged food supply $301M 8.0x 8% 7% 16 United Natural Foods, Inc. UNFI Independent restaurant and ethnic foodservice… $5.9B 7.8x 2% 2% 5 DISCOUNT — <7.0x · median 5.4x · 2 companies Dole plc DOLE Grower-packer-shipper produce supply $2.5B 6.2x 2% 4% 6 HF Foods Group Inc. HFFG Independent restaurant and ethnic foodservice… $300M 4.7x 5% 4% 10
- 1806 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
This appendix lists precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, part 1 of 2.
This page and the next carry the transactions with disclosed terms out of those recorded in this tier, each on an LTM-at-announcement basis. Deal values link back to the underlying filing for anyone who wants to verify a specific transaction. This is the full transaction record behind the case studies shown earlier in the report.
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06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 12 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (31 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 37 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 19 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Mar-2026 New Slider Holdco, Inc. → Jetro Restaurant Depot $29.1B n/a n/a New Slider Holdco, Inc. announced its transaction for Jetro Restaurant Depot, placing a large restaurant-focused platform in the precedent transaction set. Mar-2026 Archer Foodservice Partners → food service business (unit of Sterno’s food service business) $292M n/a n/a Archer Foodservice Partners completed its purchase of the food service business (unit of Sterno’s food service business), extending the record for focused foodservice assets. Sep-2025 Performance Food Group Company → US Foods Holding Corp $22.9B 0.6x 12.6x Performance Food Group Company announced its transaction for US Foods Holding Corp, pairing two large foodservice distribution platforms. Jun-2025 n/a → Calavo Growers, Inc. $534M 0.8x n/a The announced transaction for Calavo Growers, Inc. adds a grower-packer-shipper reference to the transaction set. Aug-2024 Performance Food Group Company → Cheney Bros., Inc. n/a n/a 9.9x Performance Food Group Company completed its purchase of Cheney Bros., Inc., reinforcing strategic interest in established regional foodservice networks. Dec-2022 The Natural Fruit Company (Fremman and GPF Capital) → Bollo International Fruits n/a n/a 10.0x The Natural Fruit Company (Fremman and GPF Capital) announced its transaction for Bollo International Fruits, linking adjacent fruit platforms. Jul-2019 Performance Food Group → Reinhart Foodservice, L.L.C. n/a 8.1x 8.1x Performance Food Group announced its transaction for Reinhart Foodservice, L.L.C., adding another broadline consolidation reference. Jul-2018 Teleperformance → Food Group Companies n/a n/a 7.7x Teleperformance announced its transaction for Food Group Companies, adding a buyer outside the core food distribution peer set. Jul-2018 US Foods → Services Group of America (Certain Assets) n/a 8.6x 8.6x US Foods announced its transaction for Services Group of America (Certain Assets), illustrating a targeted route to added market coverage.
- 1906 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
This appendix continues the full list of precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, part 2 of 2.
Continuing the transaction list, these remaining disclosed-terms deals complete the record referenced in the case studies section. Together with the prior page, this is the complete disclosed-terms transaction set for the period covered. It's here for reference and verification rather than to draw new conclusions.
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06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 12 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (31 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 37 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 19 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Oct-2017 SUPERVALU INC. → ASSOCIATED GROCERS OF FLORIDA, INC. n/a n/a 8.8x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Apr-2017 SUPERVALU INC. → Unified Grocers, Inc. $375M n/a 10.9x Value shown as recorded in the filing; deal value unit unresolved. Jul-2013 Spartan Stores, Inc. → Nash-Finch Company n/a 0.7x 8.8x
- 2006 · METHODOLOGY
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality.
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. 20
Everything on this page
06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 20 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Food Distributors and it clears the coverage gate with 7 of 10 companies (70%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 7 of the 7 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 4 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 669 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (668) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.
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Premium Pricing Sits with Durable Growth, Better Mix and Productive Routes.
This closing slide restates that premium pricing sits with durable growth, better mix and productive routes.
Premium pricing in this sector sits with durable growth, better mix and productive routes — the throughline of everything we've shown. The companion tables carry the full universe and source index for any figure worth tracing further.
Everything on this page
Premium Pricing Sits with Durable Growth, Better Mix and Productive Routes. NeuraCap AI — Food Distributors Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Food Distributors Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 21
Sources and methodology
This report covers Food Distributors (Consumer Staples › Consumer Staples Distribution and Retail › Food Distributors) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 10 listed companies whose core business is Food Distributors according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO), BRC Inc. (BRCC), Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH), The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF), Dole plc (DOLE), HF Foods Group Inc. (HFFG), Performance Food Group Co (PFGC), Sysco Corporation (SYY), United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI), US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD). The market map groups them by business vertical — Independent restaurant and ethnic foodservice distribution: 7 companies (SYY, USFD, PFGC, UNFI, CHEF, AVO, HFFG); Adjacent models: 3 companies (CELH, DOLE, BRCC). 7 of the 10 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
Scope and company universe
This report covers Food Distributors (Consumer Staples › Consumer Staples Distribution and Retail › Food Distributors) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 10 listed companies whose core business is Food Distributors according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO), BRC Inc. (BRCC), Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH), The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF), Dole plc (DOLE), HF Foods Group Inc. (HFFG), Performance Food Group Co (PFGC), Sysco Corporation (SYY), United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI), US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD). The market map groups them by business vertical — Independent restaurant and ethnic foodservice distribution: 7 companies (SYY, USFD, PFGC, UNFI, CHEF, AVO, HFFG); Adjacent models: 3 companies (CELH, DOLE, BRCC). 7 of the 10 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
What was excluded and why
4 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (4 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: BRCC — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · BRCC — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · HFFG — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · UNFI — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)
Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen
Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (7 of 10 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Food Distributors and it clears the coverage gate with 7 of 10 companies (70%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 7 of the 7 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 7 of 10 companies; EV / rEVenue: 10 of 10 companies; P/E: 10 of 10 companies.
How the multiples and statistics are computed
Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥9.6x, Core 7.0x–9.6x, Discount <7.0x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 8.0x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) (7 rated companies) · 9.7x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=3) · 7.9x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Core tier (n=2) · 5.4x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=2) · 9.6x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth ≥ 6% (n=4) · 6.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth < 6% (n=3) · 8.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin ≥ 4% (n=4) · 7.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin < 4% (n=3) · 10% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=7)
Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why
The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Food Distributors recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 31 transactions were recorded for this industry; 12 are shown. 19 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 19 × deal value unit unresolved; 12 × no evidence record; 4 × duplicate precedent id; 2 × divestiture roles reassigned. Case studies lead with the 3 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.
Sources
Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 28, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 673 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.
Interpretation and important notice
Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.
This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.
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