Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Sector Outlook — September 2026
A sector outlook on eleven public automotive powertrain and drivetrain suppliers, comparing forward valuation, growth and margin mix, and disclosed-terms precedent transactions. Written for owners, boards and buyers assessing where value sits across engine, driveline and off-highway content.
Key figures
- 6.8x
- Sector median EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) 9 rated companies
- 8.2x
- Faster-growth cohort multiple revenue growth above 5% (n=5)
- 15.8x
- Adjacent-content cohort multiple off-highway and industrial content (n=2)
- 8.9x
- Highest disclosed precedent multiple 2015 transaction, LTM at announcement
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1 / 22 · CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY › AUTOMOBILES AND COMPONENTS › AUTOMOTIVE POWERTRAIN AND DRIVETRAIN COMPONENTS
Executive summary
Across nine rated companies, forward earnings multiples cluster at a median of 6.8x, with a quarter of the set at 5.4x or below. The faster-growing half of the set prices at 8.2x versus 5.8x for the slower half, and suppliers earning content beyond light-vehicle platforms price higher still, at 15.8x versus 6.3x for core engine, driveline and engine-management names. Disclosed precedent transactions have cleared between 5.7x and 8.9x, a band close to where the public set prices today.
Key findings
- Sector median prices at 6.8x forward earnings, with a quarter at 5.4x or below.
- Faster-growing names command 8.2x versus 5.8x for slower growers.
- Content beyond light vehicles prices at 15.8x versus 6.3x for core suppliers.
- Precedent deals ranged from 5.7x to 8.9x, near today's public median.
What each page shows
The analyst’s walkthrough of the deck, page by page.
- 01
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY › AUTOMOBILES AND COMPONENTS › AUTOMOTIVE POWERTRAIN AND DRIVETRAIN COMPONENTS
This is the cover page for the Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components sector outlook, dated September 28, 2026.
We built this outlook on Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components suppliers, with market data as of September 28, 2026 and EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus as the primary valuation basis. The pages that follow show where the premium in this set actually sits.
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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY › AUTOMOBILES AND COMPONENTS › AUTOMOTIVE POWERTRAIN AND DRIVETRAIN COMPONENTS Powertrain and Drivetrain: The Premium Sits with the Faster Growers How the market prices eleven powertrain and drivetrain suppliers on forward earnings, and what separates the two ends of the range. September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Market data as of 2026-09-28 · primary valuation basis EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 1
- 02CONTENTS
What This Report Covers
This page lists the five numbered sections and the appendix that make up the report.
We front-load the bottom line in section one, so a reader who stops there still leaves with the full story. The sections that follow build out the landscape, valuation, precedent deals and strategic implications behind it.
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CONTENTS What This Report Covers 01 The Bottom Line Where Value Sits in Powertrain and Drivetrain Today 02 The Landscape Two Groups Under One Sector Label, Priced Two Ways 03 Valuation & Situations The Range Runs Wide, and Product Mix Travels with It 04 Precedent Transactions What Buyers Have Paid for Whole Suppliers 05 Strategic Implications Growth Durability and Margin Quality Are Where the Next Point of Multiple Is Earned 06 Appendix Comparables Detail, Methodology, Sources and Assumptions Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 2
- 0301 · THE BOTTOM LINE
Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain: The Premium Sits with Growth and Content Beyond Light Vehicles
This page summarizes the report's core finding: the premium in this sector sits with growth and with content sold beyond light vehicles.
We find that the nine rated companies price at a median of 6.8x forward earnings, with a quarter of the set at 5.4x or below. The faster-growing half of that set commands a materially higher multiple than the slower half, and the smaller group selling content beyond light-vehicle platforms prices highest of all. Precedent transactions have cleared in a similar band to where the public set prices today. So the premium in this sector is not evenly spread — it concentrates with growth and with diversified content, and that is where we would focus first.
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01 · THE BOTTOM LINE Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain: The Premium Sits with Growth and Content Beyond Light Vehicles The full story on one page · figures on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), market data as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 11 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Qualitative characterisations are NeuraCap views. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 3 1 A Premium That Holds up on Forecast Earnings Reads as Durability The nine names with a forward estimate price at a middle of 6.8x on CY2027E earnings, with a quarter of them at 5.4x or below. That pricing is measured against forecast earnings, so on our reading the growth in the plan already sits inside the number, and we read a premium that holds above that middle as a sign of durability rather than of one strong forecast year. 2 The Faster-Growing Names Hold the Higher Multiple Split the nine names with a forward estimate at 5% revenue growth: the five above that line price at a middle of 8.2x, the four below at 5.8x. That is an association across a small set rather than a mechanism, but it is where forward pricing sits today. 3 Content Sold Beyond Light-Vehicle Build Prices Differently Engine, driveline and engine-management suppliers are 73% of the set and price at a middle of 6.3x, on the seven of those eight names with a forward estimate. The three adjacent-model names, whose earnings lean on off-highway, industrial and motion content, price at 15.8x on the two of them with a forward estimate. 4 Whole-Company Deals Have Been Agreed Inside a Narrow Band Disclosed earnings multiples in the transaction record run from 5.7x in 2020 to 8.9x in 2015, close to where the middle of this set prices today. Strategic suppliers consolidating adjacent content account for most of the nine transactions shown, which suggests buyer interest sits with booked business that survives a change of control. 6.8x Sector median EV/EBITDA CY2027E consensus · 9 rated of 11 companies 9.8x Premium end EV/EBITDA vs 2.7x at the discount end top quartile (n=3) against bottom quartile (n=1) on EV/EBITDA — the spread the report explains 10 Transactions with disclosed terms 28 recorded in this tier · 1 told as case studies, the full list in the appendix
- 04SECTION 02
02
This divider introduces the section on how the sector splits into two differently priced groups.
The eleven names in this set split into two groups that sell different content, and buyer interest follows that content. We use this page to reset before walking through the market map.
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SECTION 02 02 THE LANDSCAPE Two Groups Under One Sector Label, Priced Two Ways The groups sell different content, and buyer interest follows the content. 02 of 06 Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 4
- 0502 · MARKET MAP
The Group Holding Most of the Names Prices Below the Smaller Group
This page groups the eleven approved companies by business segment and shows the median EV/EBITDA for each group.
We group the approved universe by business segment and compare median EV/EBITDA on a CY2027E basis. The group holding most of the names prices below the smaller group, and that gap is the starting point for everything that follows. So the sector label hides two different markets, and knowing which one a name sits in changes how we read its multiple.
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02 · MARKET MAP The Group Holding Most of the Names Prices Below the Smaller Group 11 approved companies grouped by business segment · median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) per group · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Segment grouping follows the platform's classification; group medians on rated names only. "Why it matters" lines are NeuraCap views. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 5 ENGINE, DRIVELINE AND ENGINE-MANAGEMENT COMPONENTS (OE AND AFTERMARKET) 8 cos median 6.3x Magna (MGA) BorgWarner (BWA) Allison (ALSN) Garrett Motion (GTX) Dana (DAN) PHINIA (PHIN) Standard Motor (SMP) China Yuchai (CYD) Eight names and 73% of the set: fuel injection and combustion management, driveline, e-boosting and air management content sold to vehicle makers and into replacement demand. ADJACENT MODELS 3 cos median 15.8x Cummins (CMI) Allient (ALNT) Kandi (KNDI) 27% of the set: three names whose demand base leans on off-highway, industrial and motion content rather than light-vehicle build rates.
- 0602 · LANDSCAPE
What Each Group Sells, and Which Buyers Follow It
This page describes what each segment group sells and which buyers tend to follow it.
We lay out what each group actually sells and connect that to the buyer interest each has attracted. The distinction matters because a supplier's content, not just its size, is what tends to travel with its multiple. Full company-level detail sits in the appendix for anyone who wants to trace a specific name. So positioning by content, rather than by headline sector, is the more useful lens here.
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02 · LANDSCAPE What Each Group Sells, and Which Buyers Follow It Segment view of the approved universe · EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) medians on rated names · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. "What they do / why it matters" is a NeuraCap view. Full company-level detail in the appendix and companion tables. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 6 Segment n Share of universe Median EV/EBITDA Names to know What they do — and why it matters Engine, driveline and engine-management components (OE and aftermarket) 8 73% 6.3x Magna International Inc. (MGA) · BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) · +6 more Eight names, OE and aftermarket. Fuel injection and combustion management, driveline, e-boosting and air management content, with replacement demand behind part of the revenue. Pricing here turns on booked business on funded platforms, commodity and freight pass-through, and cost-down against annual price-downs. Tier-1 and Tier-2 buyers consolidate this content to lift content per vehicle and defend engineering scale. Adjacent models 3 27% 15.8x Cummins Inc. (CMI) · Allient Inc. (ALNT) · +1 more Three names, different demand base. Off-highway and industrial engines, motors, actuators and power electronics, and vehicle assembly with captive powertrain build. Earnings here are less tied to light-vehicle build rates, and the buyer pool widens to diversified industrials and motion-control groups. The two of the three with a forward estimate price at 15.8x.
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03
This divider introduces the section on how valuation and product mix spread across the range.
Eleven companies sit on this page, nine of them carrying a forward CY2027E estimate. We use this section to show how far the range runs and what travels with it.
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SECTION 03 03 VALUATION & SITUATIONS The Range Runs Wide, and Product Mix Travels with It Eleven companies on the page, nine of them with a forward estimate on CY2027E earnings. 03 of 06 Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 7
- 0803 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION
Mix and Earnings Quality Separate the Two Ends of the Range
This page ranks all nine rated companies by EV/EBITDA on CY2027E consensus, sorted descending, against a sector median of 6.8x.
We sort the nine rated companies by forward EV/EBITDA and mark the sector median at 6.8x. The tier zones split the rated set at its own quartiles, so the spread here is drawn directly from this cohort rather than from an outside benchmark. So what separates the top of the range from the bottom is mix and earnings quality, which the next few pages unpack.
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03 · PUBLIC MARKET VALUATION Mix and Earnings Quality Separate the Two Ends of the Range EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) · all 9 rated companies, sorted descending · sector median 6.8x · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 11 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). Tier zones are NeuraCap groupings cut at the rated set's quartiles; every multiple quoted on this page is a median on the same EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) basis. Panel commentary is a NeuraCap view. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 8 PREMIUM · median 9.8x CORE · median 6.3x DISCOUNT · median 2.7x Sector median 6.8x WHAT SEPARATES THE TWO ENDS The top end sells mix. The three names at the top of the range pair light-vehicle programs with off-highway, industrial and motion content, and two of the three report a 19% margin. On forward earnings, that combination is what the market is paying up for at this point in the cycle. Growth alone moves one name. Dana Incorporated (DAN) posts 30% revenue growth and still prices in the bottom tier of the eleven companies shown. On a single name, the read is cyclicality and earnings quality being discounted rather than the growth line being overlooked. Aftermarket steadies the middle. Between the two ends sit Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN), Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP), BorgWarner Inc. (BWA), PHINIA Inc. (PHIN) and Magna International Inc. (MGA). Replacement demand, commodity indexation and cost-down against annual price-downs are what hold that ground through a soft build rate.
- 0903 · VALUATION DRIVERS
The Higher Multiples Travel with the Faster-Growing Names
This page compares median EV/EBITDA by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort among rated names with estimates.
We split the rated names with estimates at their own covered median for growth and, separately, for margin, then compare the median multiple in each half. The faster-growing half prices at 8.2x against 5.8x for the slower half. This is an association across a small set, not a proven mechanism, but it is where forward pricing sits today — so growth and margin are the first two variables worth testing against any name's story.
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03 · VALUATION DRIVERS The Higher Multiples Travel with the Faster-Growing Names Median EV / EBITDA (CY2027E) by revenue-growth cohort and by EBITDA-margin cohort (each split at its covered median) · rated names with estimates · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Cohort medians on rated names with the required estimates (faster n=5; slower n=4; higher-margin n=5; lower-margin n=4). Driver readings are NeuraCap views on the supplied data — association, not causation. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 9 EV/EBITDA, median per cohort · growth split at 5% · EBITDA-margin split at 15% The Faster-Growing Half of the Set Holds the Higher Multiple On the nine names with a forward estimate, the five above 5% revenue growth carry a middle of 8.2x against 5.8x for the four below. The gap is an association in a small set, and it is the line buyers are underwriting on CY2027E earnings. Margin Level on Its Own Does Not Line up with the Multiple Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) reports a 27% margin and prices inside the core tier, while Cummins Inc. (CMI) and Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) sit at the top of the range on a 19% margin. Across the nine names with a forward estimate, where a company prices is associated with growth and mix more than with reported margin alone. Propulsion-Agnostic Content Outlasts the Program It Was Won On Content that wins on combustion, hybrid and battery-electric platforms alike carries less terminal-value overhang than combustion-only parts, and the names at the top of the range carry more of it. This is a qualitative read on mix, not something the multiples on their own establish. Cash Conversion Through the Launch Curve Is the Re-Rating Variable Program capex lands ahead of volume, so reported margin in a launch-heavy period understates run-rate earnings. Buyers bridge to a normalised, mid-cycle figure, adjusting for launch costs, recoveries and restructuring, so the cadence of programs into start of production sits at the centre of that bridge.
- 1003 · SITUATION MAP
Four Names Hold the Multiple and the Growth; Three Hold Neither
This page cuts the rated names on EV/EBITDA versus the sector median and on revenue growth versus the covered median, producing four groups.
We cut the rated names on two lines at once: multiple against the sector median of 6.8x, and growth against the covered median of 5%. Four names clear both lines, three clear neither. These are observations on where each name sits today, not recommendations, so we would use this map as a starting point for the next conversation rather than a conclusion in itself.
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03 · SITUATION MAP Four Names Hold the Multiple and the Growth; Three Hold Neither Cut on EV / EBITDA vs the sector median (6.8x) (rows) and revenue growth vs the covered median (5%) (columns) · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Situation boundaries are the cohort's own medians (Directional, NeuraCap view). This page characterises situations; it does not recommend buying or selling any security. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 10 Priced up and Growing Above-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 4 names Cummins Inc. (CMI) · Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) · Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) · +1 more Cummins Inc. (CMI), Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN), Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) and Allient Inc. (ALNT) sit above the set's 6.8x middle on CY2027E earnings and above its growth line. A forward multiple has already credited the plan, so holding this position depends on booked business converting at start of production. Priced up on Steady Demand Above-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 1 names Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) prices above the middle while growing below it, with replacement demand doing the work. On a single name, read it as an illustration of how channel mix is valued rather than as a pattern. Growing Ahead of Its Price Below-median multiple · above-median revenue growth 1 names Dana Incorporated (DAN) Dana Incorporated (DAN) grows at 30% and still prices in the bottom tier of the set. On a single name, the read is that cyclicality and earnings quality are being discounted ahead of the growth line. Below the Middle on Both Below-median multiple · below-median revenue growth 3 names Magna International Inc. (MGA) · BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) · PHINIA Inc. (PHIN) Magna International Inc. (MGA), BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) and PHINIA Inc. (PHIN) sit below the middle on both lines, with revenue growth between 1% and 4%. For these three, the levers in reach are mix toward content that survives the propulsion transition and cost structure that defends earnings in a soft build year.
- 1103 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY
Four Names Clear Both the Growth and Margin Bars; Three Clear Neither
This page plots revenue growth against EBITDA margin for the nine companies with both estimates and shows median EV/EBITDA per quadrant.
We plot growth on one axis and margin on the other, cut at the covered set's own medians of 5% growth and 15% margin, and show the median multiple in each quadrant. Four names clear both bars, three clear neither. So where a name sits on this grid appears to track closely with where it prices — the quadrant a company occupies looks like a more complete explanation than either growth or margin alone.
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03 · GROWTH VS PROFITABILITY Four Names Clear Both the Growth and Margin Bars; Three Clear Neither Revenue growth (CY2027E, x-axis) vs EBITDA margin (CY2027E, y-axis) · 9 companies with both estimates · cuts at the covered medians (5% growth, 15% margin) · median EV/EBITDA per quadrant · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. Quadrant cuts are the covered set's medians. Quadrant medians on names with a meaningful EV/EBITDA (balanced n=4; margin-only n=1; growth-only n=1; neither n=3). DAN plotted at the chart edge. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 11 0% 10% 20% 10% 15% 20% 25% MARGIN ONLY median 6.3x BALANCED median 8.2x NEITHER median 5.4x GROWTH ONLY median 21.7x MGA SMP PHIN BWA ALSN GTX CMI ALNT DAN x: revenue growth (CY2027E) · y: EBITDA margin (CY2027E) HOW TO READ THIS Read the grid against two lines: the growth middle of the set and a 15% margin. Four names clear both — Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN), Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX), Cummins Inc. (CMI) and Dana Incorporated (DAN). One name clears growth alone at 21.7x and one clears margin alone at 6.3x; single names, so treat them as illustrations rather than a pattern. The three clearing neither sit at 5.4x. Rule of 40 (revenue growth + EBITDA margin ≥ 40%): 1 of 9 names clear it (DAN).
- 1203 · THE AGENDA
Growth and Margin Show up Together at the Top of the Range
This page frames the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve based on where growth and margin show up together.
Growth and margin show up together at the top of this range, which is a NeuraCap reading of the cohort data rather than a new data point. We frame this page as the questions worth resolving, not as recommendations. So the practical next step is testing whether a name's growth is durable and whether its margin holds through a cycle, since both appear to travel with the multiple.
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03 · THE AGENDA Growth and Margin Show up Together at the Top of the Range NeuraCap view · framed as the questions an owner or acquirer should resolve · observations, not recommendations Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All content on this page is Directional — NeuraCap advisory judgment grounded in the cohort data shown earlier. It does not constitute investment advice. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 12 Move Mix Toward Propulsion-Agnostic Content Content that wins on combustion, hybrid and battery-electric platforms carries the demand base through the transition, and the names at the top of the range carry more of it. The question to settle is which product lines can be engineered once and sold across all three. What changes the answer: New business awards where hybrid and battery-electric platforms outweigh combustion-only content. Weight the Aftermarket Against the OE Cycle Replacement demand does not move with build rates, and the one name above the middle on price while growing below it sells into that channel. SKU breadth and service levels are a different operating discipline from winning platform awards, and they are valued by a different buyer pool. What changes the answer: Aftermarket share of revenue rising through a soft light-vehicle build year. Diversify Beyond Light-Vehicle Build Rates Off-highway, industrial and commercial-vehicle demand sits behind the group that prices highest in this set. Entering it is a build-versus-buy decision, and the transaction record shows engine and driveline suppliers buying their way across rather than waiting for organic qualification. What changes the answer: A commercial-vehicle or industrial revenue line large enough to change decremental margins in a downturn. Protect Price Through Indexation and Cost-Down Annual price-downs and LTA givebacks are structural, so commodity indexation, freight and tariff pass-through, and tooling and engineering recoveries carry the margin line. Buyers bridge from reported to normalised earnings, and contractual recovery is the part of that bridge management controls. What changes the answer: Pass-through recovery holding through a commodity or tariff move without a margin step-down.
- 13SECTION 04
04
This divider introduces the section on precedent whole-company transactions.
Nine transactions from 2015 to 2026 sit in this section, with values and multiples as recorded. We use this divider to reset before walking through what buyers have actually paid.
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SECTION 04 04 PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS What Buyers Have Paid for Whole Suppliers Nine transactions from 2015 to 2026, with values and multiples as recorded. 04 of 06 Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 13
- 1404 · DEAL CASE STUDIES
Whole-Company Deals Have Cleared Mid-to-High Single-Digit Earnings Multiples
This page walks through precedent transactions with disclosed terms as case studies, with the complete list in the appendix.
We walk through transactions with disclosed terms as case studies, with multiples read on LTM financials at announcement. These deal multiples sit on a different basis than the CY2027E public multiples shown elsewhere in this report, so we do not claim a spread between the two. What we do note is that strategic suppliers consolidating adjacent content account for most of the transactions shown — so buyer conviction has followed booked business that survives a change of control.
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04 · DEAL CASE STUDIES Whole-Company Deals Have Cleared Mid-to-High Single-Digit Earnings Multiples 1 of 10 transactions with disclosed terms, told as case studies · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · the complete list is in the appendix · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 34 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 18 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. "Why the deal happened" is a NeuraCap read of the recorded evidence. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 14 Feb-2022 $3.7B Cummins Inc. Cummins Inc. buys Meritor Inc.: axle and brake content joins an engine platform. EV / LTM revenue 0.9x EV / LTM EBITDA n/a WHY THE DEAL HAPPENED Cummins Inc. sits in the adjacent-model group, where earnings lean on off-highway, industrial and commercial-vehicle demand rather than light-vehicle build. Buying Meritor Inc. suggests a move to widen content per commercial vehicle and to sit across more of the drivetrain with the same customers. HOW THE TARGET WAS VALUED The transaction was recorded at $3.7B, or 0.9x revenue — the cross-check convention where margins are being normalised. Against a peer set priced on forward earnings, that revenue-based print reads as a mid-cycle earnings view rather than a premium paid for growth.
- 15SECTION 05
05
This divider introduces the section on where the next point of multiple is earned.
Growth durability and margin quality are the operating choices that associate with where companies price today. We use this page to reset before the strategic implications that follow.
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SECTION 05 05 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Growth Durability and Margin Quality Are Where the Next Point of Multiple Is Earned Operating choices associated with where companies price today. 05 of 06 Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 15
- 1605 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Revenue Quality and Held Margin Are Where the Higher Multiples Sit — Start There
This page frames the operating questions for the next twelve months based on where revenue quality and held margin sit in this set.
We read revenue quality and held margin as the two levers most associated with the higher multiples in this set. This page is a directional view drawn from the analysis already shown, framed as questions rather than recommendations. So the practical starting point for the next twelve months is testing where a name's revenue quality and margin resilience actually stand.
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05 · STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Revenue Quality and Held Margin Are Where the Higher Multiples Sit — Start There NeuraCap view · the questions this data puts on the table for the next twelve months Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. This page is Directional — NeuraCap views drawn from the analysis in this report. Observations, not recommendations. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 16 FOR OWNERS Growth and Mix Are Where the Range Widens Across the nine names with a forward estimate, the higher multiples sit with the faster-growing names and with content sold beyond light-vehicle platforms. The levers that follow are product mix, channel mix and a cost structure that defends earnings through a soft build year. FOR BOARDS Capital Allocation Decides Which Side of the Line You Sit On Program capex, aftermarket build-out and acquisitions of adjacent content compete for the same money. The transaction record shows suppliers buying adjacent content to raise content per vehicle rather than waiting for organic qualification on new platforms. FOR BUYERS AND CAPITAL PARTNERS Precedent Transactions Favour Buyers with Conviction on Run-Rate Earnings Disclosed earnings multiples in the record cluster in the mid-to-high single digits, and the bridge from reported to normalised earnings is where the work sits. Carve-outs of combustion-exposed lines and aftermarket platforms are the supply this sector keeps producing.
- 17SECTION 06
06
This divider introduces the appendix covering the full comparable universe, methodology and sources.
This section carries the comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each disclosure lives. We use this divider to reset before the reference material.
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SECTION 06 06 APPENDIX The Full Universe, Methodology and Sources Comparables detail behind every figure in the body, the valuation basis, and where each underlying disclosure lives. 06 of 06 Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 17
- 1806 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1)
Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier
This page lists all public comparables on EV/EBITDA (CY2027E), grouped by valuation tier, with nine rated and two not rated.
We list every comparable on the same CY2027E EV/EBITDA basis, shaded above and below the 6.8x sector median, with tickers linking to the underlying source. Two names in the universe carry no eligible multiple and are listed separately. So this page is the full reference set behind every multiple quoted earlier in the report.
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06 · PUBLIC COMPARABLES (1 OF 1) Public Comparables on EV / EBITDA (CY2027E), Grouped by Valuation Tier Teal shading marks a EV/EBITDA above the sector median (6.8x); amber marks below · 9 rated companies; 2 not rated (no eligible EV/EBITDA) · tickers link to the underlying source · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. All 9 rated rows are in this appendix and in the companion workbook, which carries the complete field set. Names without an eligible multiple are listed in the companion workbook. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 18 Company Ticker Segment EV EV/EBITDA (CY2027E) Rev growth EBITDA margin Rule of 40 PREMIUM — ≥8.2x · median 9.8x · 3 companies Allient Inc. ALNT Motors, actuators and power electronics content $2.1B 21.7x 9% 15% 24 Cummins Inc. CMI Off-highway and industrial powertrain $77.5B 9.8x 9% 19% 28 Garrett Motion Inc. GTX Engine, driveline and engine-management components (OE… $6.2B 8.2x 5% 19% 24 CORE — 5.3x–8.2x · median 6.3x · 5 companies Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. ALSN Engine, driveline and engine-management components (OE… $13.5B 8.2x 5% 27% 31 Standard Motor Products, Inc. SMP Engine, driveline and engine-management components (OE… $1.5B 6.8x 3% 12% 15 BorgWarner Inc. BWA Engine, driveline and engine-management components (OE… $14.5B 6.3x 4% 15% 20 PHINIA Inc. PHIN Engine, driveline and engine-management components (OE… $3.0B 5.4x 4% 15% 18 Magna International Inc. MGA Engine, driveline and engine-management components (OE… $23.6B 5.3x 1% 10% 12 DISCOUNT — <5.3x · median 2.7x · 1 companies Dana Incorporated DAN Engine, driveline and engine-management components (OE… $4.1B 2.7x 30% 15% 45
- 1906 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
This page lists precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first, the first of two pages.
We list every transaction with disclosed terms, newest first, with multiples read on LTM financials at announcement. Deal values link to the underlying filing for anyone who wants to trace a specific transaction. These multiples sit on a different basis than the CY2027E public comparables, so no spread is claimed between the two sets.
Everything on this page
06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (1 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 10 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (28 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 34 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 18 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 19 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters May-2026 Undisclosed buyer → Ballard Power Systems Inc. $395M 3.8x n/a An undisclosed buyer agreed to acquire Ballard Power Systems Inc. in May-2026 at $395M, recorded at 3.8x revenue. Where earnings are not the anchor, a revenue multiple is the cross-check buyers fall back on. Feb-2022 Cummins Inc. → Meritor Inc. $3.7B 0.9x n/a Cummins Inc. agreed to acquire Meritor Inc. in Feb-2022 at $3.7B, adding commercial-vehicle axle and brake content to an off-highway and industrial engine platform. It is the larger of the two disclosed values in the record shown here. Jan-2020 BorgWarner Inc. → Delphi Technologies PLC n/a n/a 5.7x BorgWarner Inc. agreed to acquire Delphi Technologies PLC in Jan-2020 at 5.7x earnings, combining fuel injection, combustion management and power electronics under one supplier. It sits at the bottom of the disclosed earnings multiples shown. Mar-2018 Dana Incorporated → GKN plc n/a n/a 8.1x Dana Incorporated agreed to acquire GKN plc in Mar-2018 at 8.1x earnings. The logic reads as content per vehicle and engineering scale across the same vehicle-maker platforms. Jan-2018 Melrose Industries plc → GKN plc n/a n/a 8.7x Melrose Industries plc agreed to acquire GKN plc in Jan-2018 at 8.7x earnings, above the multiple recorded on the approach for the same target two months later. Two different buyer types looked at the same driveline asset. May-2017 Zhengzhou Coal → Bosch Starters n/a n/a 7.6x Zhengzhou Coal agreed to acquire Bosch Starters in May-2017 at 7.6x earnings. Acquisition is one route to a qualified position on Western vehicle-maker platforms, which is slow to build organically. Dec-2016 American Axle → Metaldyne Performance Group Inc. n/a n/a 6.5x American Axle agreed to acquire Metaldyne Performance Group Inc. in Dec-2016 at 6.5x earnings, adding powertrain machining and forging content to a driveline base. Sep-2016 Icahn Enterprises L.P. → Federal-Mogul Holdings Corp. n/a 0.7x 8.8x Icahn Enterprises L.P. agreed to acquire Federal-Mogul Holdings Corp. in Sep-2016 at 8.8x earnings and 0.7x revenue. Replacement demand and SKU breadth support a multiple at the upper end of the earnings multiples disclosed here. Oct-2015 Linamar Corporation → Montupet S.A. n/a n/a 8.9x Linamar Corporation agreed to acquire Montupet S.A. in Oct-2015 at 8.9x earnings, the top of the disclosed earnings multiples in the record shown here. Specialist process capability is priced closer to the premium end than to commodity part supply.
- 2006 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2)
All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First
This page continues the list of precedent transactions with disclosed terms, newest first.
We continue the same list of disclosed-terms transactions, still ordered newest first and still on an LTM-at-announcement basis. Some records in this tier carry data-quality flags and are shown as recorded in the filing rather than adjusted. So the full disclosed-terms record sits across these two pages for anyone tracing a specific deal.
Everything on this page
06 · PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS (2 OF 2) All Precedent Transactions with Disclosed Terms, Newest First 10 transactions with disclosed terms in this tier (28 recorded) · multiples on LTM financials at announcement where disclosed · deal values link to the underlying filing · as of 2026-09-28 Source: NeuraCap analytics platform; market data and consensus estimates as of 2026-09-28; company disclosures via SEC EDGAR where linked. 34 precedent record(s) carry data-quality flags (deal value unit unresolved; divestiture roles reassigned; duplicate precedent id); figures are shown as recorded in the filing. 18 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted from the precedent list and the case studies (kept in the companion workbook). Deal multiples are LTM at announcement (Definitive, from filings); they are not directly comparable to the CY2027E public basis and no spread is claimed. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 20 Date Transaction EV EV/LTM Rev EV/LTM EBITDA Why it matters Jul-2015 Magna International Inc. → GETRAG Group of Companies n/a n/a 8.8x
- 2106 · METHODOLOGY
Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality
This page explains the report's sources, valuation assumptions and data-quality exclusions.
This page sets out how the comparable set and precedent list were assembled, which records were excluded and why, and where each underlying disclosure sits. Every figure in the body links back to the record it was drawn from, so any number quoted earlier can be traced to its source. So this is the reference page to open first if a specific figure needs checking.
Everything on this page
06 · METHODOLOGY Sources, Assumptions and Data Quality How this report was built, what was excluded, and where every underlying disclosure lives · as of 2026-09-28 Every figure in this report links to the record it was taken from. Where a figure has no link, the appendix names its source and the basis on which it was read. Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice 21 VALUATION BASIS Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 11 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components and it clears the coverage gate with 9 of 11 companies (82%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 9 of the 9 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. DATA QUALITY & EXCLUSIONS 2 records were excluded or quarantined by the platform's validation gates (unit errors, implausible ratios, ineligible securities and classification failures); the full ledger ships in the companion tables and never feeds a statistic in this report. DEFINITIVE VS DIRECTIONAL Definitive content is disclosed or consensus data passed through stated arithmetic. Directional content — tier boundaries, situation cuts, "why it matters" commentary, the agenda pages — is NeuraCap analyst judgment and is labeled as such where it appears. WHAT THIS REPORT IS NOT This report characterises a sector. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security, and no statement in it should be read as investment advice or a price target. WHERE THE DATA LIVES 480 registered source documents stand behind the figures in this report. Metric hyperlinks throughout the deck open the specific filing or data record; by publisher: sec.gov (479) · home.treasury.gov (1). The companion workbook beside this deck carries the complete source index.
- 22
In This Set, Higher Multiples Sit with Growth and with Content Beyond Light Vehicles.
This is the closing page restating that higher multiples in this set sit with growth and with content beyond light vehicles.
In this set, higher multiples sit with growth and with content beyond light vehicles. The companion tables carry the full universe, the exclusion ledger and the complete source index for any figure worth tracing further.
Everything on this page
In This Set, Higher Multiples Sit with Growth and with Content Beyond Light Vehicles. NeuraCap AI — Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage September 2026 · Prepared by NeuraCap AI · Confidential Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components Coverage | September 2026 | Confidential | Not investment advice Sources & methodology 22
Sources and methodology
This report covers Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components (Consumer Discretionary › Automobiles and Components › Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 11 listed companies whose core business is Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Allient Inc. (ALNT), Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN), BorgWarner Inc. (BWA), Cummins Inc. (CMI), China Yuchai International Limited (CYD), Dana Incorporated (DAN), Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX), Kandi Technologies Group, Inc. (KNDI), Magna International Inc. (MGA), PHINIA Inc. (PHIN), Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP). The market map groups them by business vertical — Engine, driveline and engine-management components (OE and aftermarket): 8 companies (MGA, BWA, ALSN, GTX, DAN, PHIN, SMP, CYD); Adjacent models: 3 companies (CMI, ALNT, KNDI). 9 of the 11 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
Scope and company universe
This report covers Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components (Consumer Discretionary › Automobiles and Components › Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components) with market data and consensus estimates as of September 28, 2026. The company universe is the 11 listed companies whose core business is Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components according to NeuraCap's industry classification of each company's reported business segments (a company is included only when this industry is central to what it does, not merely adjacent to it). Companies in the set: Allient Inc. (ALNT), Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN), BorgWarner Inc. (BWA), Cummins Inc. (CMI), China Yuchai International Limited (CYD), Dana Incorporated (DAN), Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX), Kandi Technologies Group, Inc. (KNDI), Magna International Inc. (MGA), PHINIA Inc. (PHIN), Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP). The market map groups them by business vertical — Engine, driveline and engine-management components (OE and aftermarket): 8 companies (MGA, BWA, ALSN, GTX, DAN, PHIN, SMP, CYD); Adjacent models: 3 companies (CMI, ALNT, KNDI). 9 of the 11 companies carry a valid multiple on the primary valuation basis and form the rated set behind every cohort statistic; the others are shown but do not enter the statistics.
What was excluded and why
2 records failed a validation gate and never feed a statistic in this report (2 excluded from aggregate). Each exclusion, with its reason: KNDI — EBITDA is non-positive; EV/EBITDA is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate) · KNDI — Non-positive EPS; P/E is n/m (effect: excluded from aggregate)
Primary valuation basis and how it was chosen
Primary valuation basis: EV / EBITDA on CY2027E consensus (9 of 11 companies eligible; multiples failing the platform's plausibility gates are excluded, never plotted). EV / EBITDA on CY2027E is the lead convention: it is the sector-appropriate prior for Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components and it clears the coverage gate with 9 of 11 companies (82%). EV / Revenue, P / E are carried as a cross-check. The set earns: 9 of the 9 companies with a reported forward EBITDA carry a meaningful one, so the profit multiple leads and a revenue multiple would understate what the market is pricing. The basis is selected in two steps: the industry's customary valuation conventions set the order of preference, and each convention is then tested for coverage — the share of companies with a valid, plausibility-checked multiple on the chosen period. A convention is used only when enough companies carry it; the best-covered convention is used, and disclosed, when none clears the threshold. Coverage measured for this report — EV / EBITDA: 9 of 11 companies; EV / rEVenue: 10 of 11 companies; P/E: 10 of 11 companies.
How the multiples and statistics are computed
Enterprise value (EV) is market capitalisation at the as-of date plus total debt minus cash and equivalents from the latest reported balance sheet, reconciled against the platform's stored value and disclosed where the two differ. Forward multiples divide EV (or the share price for P/E) by the consensus estimate for the stated calendar period; trailing multiples use the last twelve months of reported figures from SEC filings. A multiple with a negative or immaterial denominator is treated as not meaningful and excluded from every statistic. Cohort statistics are medians and quartiles over the rated set only; a group median with fewer than three observations is shown as the single company's figure and labelled as such. Valuation tiers cut the rated set at its quartiles (tiers cut at the rated set's quartiles: Premium ≥8.2x, Core 5.3x–8.2x, Discount <5.3x — NeuraCap groupings). Revenue growth compares consecutive calendar-year consensus revenue; EBITDA margin divides consensus EBITDA by consensus revenue for the same period. Figures shown in this report and the calculation behind each: 6.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) (9 rated companies) · 9.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Premium tier (n=3) · 6.3x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Core tier (n=5) · 2.7x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within Discount tier (n=1) · 8.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth ≥ 5% (n=5) · 5.8x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | growth < 5% (n=4) · 8.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin ≥ 15% (n=5) · 6.1x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) | EBITDA margin < 15% (n=4) · 24% = median Rule of 40 score (revenue growth + EBITDA margin) (n=9) · 8.2x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within balanced quadrant (n=4) · 6.3x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within marginOnly quadrant (n=1) · 21.7x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within growthOnly quadrant (n=1) · 5.4x = median(ev_ebitda CY2027E) within neither quadrant (n=3)
Precedent transactions: what is in the record and why
The precedent record holds the M&A transactions in Automotive Powertrain and Drivetrain Components recorded from SEC filings (8-K announcements and the documents they reference), newest first, with each value and multiple linked to the exact passage in the filing that states it. 28 transactions were recorded for this industry; 10 are shown. 18 recorded transactions with neither a disclosed value nor a multiple are omitted because they say nothing about price; they remain in the companion workbook. Deal multiples are enterprise value over the target's last-twelve-month revenue or EBITDA at announcement, as disclosed; they are not restated to the public basis and no spread to the public multiples is claimed. Before a transaction reaches the record it passes a screen for mirrored or duplicate filings of the same deal, for divestitures where the filer is the seller rather than the buyer, for carve-outs recorded under the parent's name, and for values whose citation describes something other than the price paid (a debt raise, a termination fee); such records are corrected or excluded and the correction is noted. Data-quality notes on this record: 11 × deal value unit unresolved; 18 × no evidence record; 3 × duplicate precedent id; 2 × divestiture roles reassigned. Case studies lead with the 1 richest stories — disclosed value, a readable multiple, newest first.
Sources
Company financials and transaction terms come from the companies' own SEC filings on EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K documents), linked from each figure in the report. Forward figures are analyst consensus estimates for the calendar periods shown. Share prices and market capitalisations are market data as of September 28, 2026. Treasury yields are published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. 484 source documents stand behind this report; by publisher domain: sec.gov, home.treasury.gov (1). Every figure on every page is traceable to one of these records; nothing in the report is derived from outside data.
Interpretation and important notice
Tier labels, situation maps, the agenda and the implications pages are NeuraCap analytical views drawn from the recorded evidence and are labelled as such. The report is informational: it is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, not an opinion of value and not an offer of any kind. Readers should perform their own diligence before acting on anything described here.
This report is published for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, an appraisal or a fairness opinion, and no fiduciary relationship is created by reading it. Multiples that fail NeuraCap’s plausibility gates are excluded and never plotted. See the full methodology and the disclaimer.
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